CICP Denial Flow Analysis

Understanding the path from filing to decision (COVID-19 vaccines)

78.6%
Procedurally Denied (5,820 claims)

Dismissed without merit review due to: missing records (2,772), missed deadline (2,632), non-covered product (416)

21.4%
Merit Reviewed (1,585 claims)

Claims reaching substantive review on causality. 100% of these denied on merits (0% approved).

49%
Still Pending (7,214 claims)

Average case pending 3-5+ years. Rates provisional until final decisions made.

Detailed Denial Breakdown

Filed

7,542

Total COVID-19 vaccine injury claims filed with CICP (as of April 1, 2026)

Procedurally Denied: 5,820 (78.6%)

POLICY SIGNAL

Dismissed without merit review due to administrative reasons:

2,632
Missed Filing Deadline

Filed after 1-year window. Strict deadline enforced.

2,772
Missing Medical Records

Insufficient documentation to establish temporal relationship.

416
Non-Covered Product

Not an approved COVID-19 vaccine under PREP Act.

Policy insight: 2,632 missed-deadline denials (~35% of all denials) may represent systemic barrier to filing. No extension process available. Clock starts from vaccination, not symptom onset.

Merit-Reviewed & Denied: 1,585 (21.4%)

SUBSTANTIVE REVIEW

Claims reaching causality assessment:

Approval Rate on Merits
0%
Standard
Preponderance of evidence (50%+)

Note: HHS denies all merit-reviewed claims so far. This may indicate: (1) causality evidentiary bar is high, (2) COVID-19 vaccines have low biological plausibility for serious injury, or (3) data still accumulating for rare events.

Pending Decision: 7,214 (49%)

PROVISIONAL RATES

Claims still in adjudication. Average processing time: 3-5+ years. Final approval rates will shift as these are decided.

How CICP Compares to VICP

Metric VICP (All Vaccines) CICP (COVID-19)
Total Petitions ~22,000 (1988-2026) 7,542 (2020-2026)
Approval Rate (Compensable) ~50% across vaccines 1.8% (137/7,542)
Settlement Rate ~60% of compensation (no causality determination) Not applicable (different legal framework)
Appeal U.S. Court of Federal Claims HHS Secretary only (no federal court)
Pain/Suffering Damages Up to $250,000+ Not available
Legal Framework National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act (1986) Public Readiness & Emergency Preparedness (PREP) Act

Data Source & Methodology