COVID Lot Reactogenicity AE Rates — Known vs Estimated Doses

⚠️ Critical Caveats

"Estimated" bars use model-derived dose denominators (from the reactogenicity-index estimation pipeline). Those rates are partially circular — the denominator was calibrated from the same events being measured.
Only lots with ≥20 reactogenicity index events are shown in the estimated-dose group, to filter out unreliable low-count lots.
Known-dose rates use actual openVAERS dose counts (541 lots with verified denominators).
Do NOT cite estimated-dose rates as validated findings. They confirm the model's internal consistency but are not independent evidence.
Rates vary dramatically by manufacturer (Janssen ~1,400/mil, Moderna ~780/mil, Pfizer ~380/mil), driven by differences in era, reporting propensity, and recipient population.

How to read this chart: Each pair of bars shows the mean reporting rate (per million doses) for one adverse event. Blue = known doses (actual openVAERS denominators, n=541 lots across 3 manufacturers). Orange = estimated doses (model-derived denominators, n=499 lots with ≥20 index events, not in the known set). Values printed on bars are reports per million.

Janssen (J&J)

Moderna

Pfizer

Click manufacturer tabs to switch. Hover over bars for exact values.

Top 20 Known-Dose Lots (by reactogenicity count)

Lot	Mfr	Doses	Inj.Pain	Inj.Eryth	Inj.Swell	Pyrexia	Chills	Fatigue	Myalgia	Headache	Pain Ext	Total

Top 20 Estimated-Dose Lots (by reactogenicity count, ≥20 idx)

Lot	Mfr	Est.Doses	Inj.Pain	Inj.Eryth	Inj.Swell	Pyrexia	Chills	Fatigue	Myalgia	Headache	Pain Ext	Total

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