{
"generated": "2026-10-09",
"method": "Per-vaccine lot-number lookup pages (/lot-lookup/<vaccine>.html) \u2014 v2, methodologically honest.\n\nWhy v2: v1 ranked lots by raw VAERS report count. Raw counts mostly measure lot size and\ndeployment timing (early COVID-19 lots went to the oldest, highest-baseline-risk recipients),\nso a count ranking implies comparisons the data cannot support.\n\nv2 rules\n* Lots WITHOUT a dose denominator (all vaccines except ~530 COVID-19 lots): listed\n  alphabetically as a lookup table. Counts are shown, but the page states plainly that lots\n  cannot be compared with each other.\n* COVID-19 lots WITH published shipped doses: indirect standardization.\n    stratum      = manufacturer x calendar month of the lot's first VAERS report\n                   (proxy for deployment phase, which determines recipient age/risk mix)\n    expected E_i = doses_i x (sum reports / sum doses) within the lot's stratum\n    O/E_i        = reports_i / E_i, exact Poisson 95% CI, widened by sqrt(phi) where phi is the\n                   Pearson overdispersion of the stratum (quasi-Poisson), floor 1\n    p_i          = one-sided Poisson test of O > E under the overdispersed model (normal\n                   approximation on the quasi-Poisson scale), Benjamini-Hochberg q-values\n  A lot is flagged only if q < 0.05 AND O/E lower bound > 1. Strata with < 3 lots are not\n  tested.\nLimitations printed on the page: shipped != administered; reporting completeness differs by\ntime and manufacturer; recipient age within a month still varies; lot assignment in VAERS\nreports is sometimes wrong.\n",
"summary": {
"n_lots_with_doses": 531,
"n_suspect_denominator": 1,
"suspect_lots": [
"015B22A"
],
"n_tested": 515,
"n_strata_tested": 47,
"n_flagged": 20,
"nb_shape_k": 11.092667900401413,
"rate_ratio_95pct_range": [
0.5009034170025508,
1.6687245461666063
]
},
"lots": {
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"rate_lo": 779.3181276757387,
"rate_hi": 881.6297893038021,
"p": 0.0006759750010061667,
"between_lot_percentile": 0.9993340397926652,
"q": 0.021757945344885992
}
}
}