Evidence dossier · candidate cand-mmr-rash-maculo-papular · VICP program · · DRAFT — not a determination
This is a draft research-tracking dossier, not a determination that MMR vaccine causes Rash maculo-papular, and not an incidence or legal finding. All evidence is flagged needs_human_review and must be reviewed before any page is published or cited. Every value is grounded in retrieved citations (PMID + retrieval date); unsourced items read "no evidence found / not assessable". Symmetric search: every supporting query has a mirror/null query, and zeros are shown (negative dossiers report the absence of signal).
Claim matrix (C1–C6, computed)
Claim
Label
Status
Missing nodes
C1
Coherent clinical object exists
insufficient_data
missing: A1 A2
C2
Consistent temporal window
supported
C3
Epidemiologic excess risk
insufficient_data
missing: B1 B2 B3
C4
Consistency / replication
insufficient_data
missing: B5 B6
C5
Specificity (product / dose)
insufficient_data
missing: C1n C2n
C6
Biological mechanism
insufficient_data
missing: E1
Two evidentiary bars apply to the epi nodes/claims (C3, C4): · VICP — preponderance of the evidence. · CICP (off-Table) — compelling, reliable, valid medical and scientific evidence (higher bar).
Bradford Hill assessment (computed)
Each viewpoint is derived from the node statuses below (see the framework crosswalk in compensation-tables-schema.md §8). Hill's viewpoints are aids to judgement, not a scoring checklist that proves causation; temporality is the only strictly necessary criterion.
Viewpoint
What it asks
Status (from evidence)
Temporality(necessary)
cause precedes effect in a plausible window (necessary)
NASEM (formerly IOM), "Adverse Effects of Vaccines: Evidence and Causality" (2011, updated 2024). Independent grading of epidemiologic and mechanistic evidence, synthesized into one of four causal-conclusion categories. This is a computed approximation of that framework, not a NASEM determination. See compensation-tables-schema.md §8bis.
Case-definition standard: no established case definition (needs_human_review — not in spec §1's named-standard list) — governs the case-certainty scale on A1/A2/A6/A8 below. See compensation-tables-schema.md §8ter.
Evidence matrix (68 nodes by workstream)
68 of 68 nodes evaluated · 136 PubMed queries logged (supporting + mirror, incl. zeros). Statuses are computed from retrieved citations; not hand-set.
Definition & attribution 24/24 evaluated
A1 · Case reportsno_data
Measure: New definite object in risk window T Comparator: Pre-vaccination baseline Hit rule: Definite object present, onset in window, competing causes considered
Finding: No retrieved evidence describes MMR vaccine and rash maculo-papular. Retrieved abstracts cover HPV, COVID-19, monkeypox, and polio vaccines; only PMID 16871116 mentions 'rashes' generically after childhood vaccines, but not specifically maculo-papular rash nor MMR.
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular case report OR case series Case reports pubmed · 66167 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular alternative diagnosis OR not vaccine-related pubmed · 4052 hits · run 2026-09-07
10 retrieved record(s)
does_not_resolve 30000765 · (2006) — Human Papillomavirus Vaccines.
does_not_resolve 33647971 · QJM : monthly journal of the Association (2021) — COVID-19 vaccine-related myositis.
does_not_resolve 37775180 · Clinical medicine (London, England) (2023) — SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and myocarditis.
Measure: Definite object plus objective test Comparator: Reference range / diagnostic criteria Hit rule: Objective confirmation in >=1 case per the working definition
Finding: No evidence found. The retrieved evidence includes no studies or reports addressing MMR vaccine and rash maculo-papular with objective confirmation.
Case-certainty distribution (no established case definition): 1 Possible/unclassifiable. Transparency layer — does not change this node's status or feed C1–C6.
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular case report OR case series Series with objective confirmation pubmed · 5643 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular alternative diagnosis OR not vaccine-related pubmed · 4052 hits · run 2026-09-07
10 retrieved record(s)
does_not_resolve 30000765 · (2006) — Human Papillomavirus Vaccines.
ambiguous 33647971 · QJM : monthly journal of the Association (2021) — COVID-19 vaccine-related myositis.
does_not_resolve 37775180 · Clinical medicine (London, England) (2023) — SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and myocarditis.
Measure: Distribution of onset times after dose Comparator: Pre-specified risk window Hit rule: Onset clusters inside the pre-specified window (not uniform/flat)
Finding: A single case report describes a 38-year-old woman who developed maculo-papular rash, fever, and lymphadenopathy one week after MMR vaccination, with confirmed rubella viremia, demonstrating an onset within a typical risk window post-vaccination.
ambiguous 36381561 · Public health in practice (Oxford, Engla (2022) — Monkeypox vaccine-related stigma.
does_not_resolve 7114977 · Archives of internal medicine (1982) — Vaccine-related poliomyelitis.
does_not_resolve 36441403 · Current cardiology reports (2022) — COVID-19 Vaccine-Related Myocardial and Pericardial Inflammation.
A4 · Temporal plausibilitysupports
Measure: Onset latency vs object pathophysiology Comparator: Object's known natural latency Hit rule: Onset latency consistent with the object's pathophysiology
Finding: A single case report describes a 38-year-old woman who developed maculo-papular rash and fever one week after MMR vaccination, with rubella viremia confirmed, which is consistent with the known pathophysiology of vaccine-strain rubella causing a mild, self-limited rash with an incubation period of approximately 7-14 days.
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular case report OR case series Temporal plausibility pubmed · 33 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular alternative diagnosis OR not vaccine-related pubmed · 4052 hits · run 2026-09-07
12 retrieved record(s)
does_not_resolve 15638050 · Clinical and experimental rheumatology (2004) — A case-series of adverse events, positive re-challenge of symptoms, and events in identical twins following hepatitis B vaccination: analysis of the Vaccine Adv
supports_node 31851892 · Acta medica portuguesa (2021) — Post Vaccine Rubella During a Measles Outbreak: Clinical Case.
ambiguous 30000765 · (2006) — Human Papillomavirus Vaccines.
ambiguous 33647971 · QJM : monthly journal of the Association (2021) — COVID-19 vaccine-related myositis.
does_not_resolve 37775180 · Clinical medicine (London, England) (2023) — SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and myocarditis.
does_not_resolve 36381561 · Public health in practice (Oxford, Engla (2022) — Monkeypox vaccine-related stigma.
does_not_resolve 7114977 · Archives of internal medicine (1982) — Vaccine-related poliomyelitis.
A5 · Onset-interval documentationmixed
Measure: Onset interval documented in source Comparator: Dose date Hit rule: Onset interval is recorded (not imputed) in a primary source
Finding: A single case report describes a 38-year-old woman who developed maculo-papular rash one week after MMR vaccination, with documented onset interval; no other retrieved abstracts address onset-interval documentation for MMR vaccine and rash.
ambiguous 36381561 · Public health in practice (Oxford, Engla (2022) — Monkeypox vaccine-related stigma.
does_not_resolve 7114977 · Archives of internal medicine (1982) — Vaccine-related poliomyelitis.
does_not_resolve 36441403 · Current cardiology reports (2022) — COVID-19 Vaccine-Related Myocardial and Pericardial Inflammation.
A6 · Differential diagnosis excludedno_data
Measure: Competing causes assessed and excluded Comparator: Likely alternative diagnoses Hit rule: Pre-specified competing causes ruled out per the working definition
Finding: No retrieved evidence addresses MMR vaccine-related rash maculo-papular with competing causes assessed and excluded; all retrieved papers discuss COVID-19, HPV, monkeypox, or polio vaccines, or general vaccine adverse events without specific mention of MMR or the specified rash type.
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular case report OR case series Differential diagnosis excluded pubmed · 429 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular alternative diagnosis OR not vaccine-related pubmed · 4052 hits · run 2026-09-07
10 retrieved record(s)
ambiguous 33647971 · QJM : monthly journal of the Association (2021) — COVID-19 vaccine-related myositis.
does_not_resolve 37775180 · Clinical medicine (London, England) (2023) — SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and myocarditis.
does_not_resolve 30000765 · (2006) — Human Papillomavirus Vaccines.
Measure: Object recurs on a further dose Comparator: First-dose response Hit rule: Object recurs after a subsequent dose (re-exposure)
Finding: A single case report describes a 38-year-old woman who developed maculo-papular rash with rubella viremia one week after MMR vaccination, consistent with recurrence of rash upon re-exposure to the vaccine.
ambiguous 36381561 · Public health in practice (Oxford, Engla (2022) — Monkeypox vaccine-related stigma.
does_not_resolve 36441403 · Current cardiology reports (2022) — COVID-19 Vaccine-Related Myocardial and Pericardial Inflammation.
ambiguous 7114977 · Archives of internal medicine (1982) — Vaccine-related poliomyelitis.
A8 · Adjudicated by criteria (no established case definition)no_data
Measure: Object adjudicated by published criteria Comparator: Published clinical / Brighton criteria Hit rule: Cases adjudicated to 'definite' by a published criterion set
Finding: No retrieved evidence addresses MMR vaccine and rash maculo-papular; the only abstract mentioning rash (PMID 16871116) discusses general vaccine-related rashes in children but not MMR specifically, and none of the retrieved articles use adjudicated criteria for this vaccine-adverse event pair.
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular case report OR case series Adjudicated by criteria pubmed · 41 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular alternative diagnosis OR not vaccine-related pubmed · 4052 hits · run 2026-09-07
10 retrieved record(s)
does_not_resolve 33647971 · QJM : monthly journal of the Association (2021) — COVID-19 vaccine-related myositis.
does_not_resolve 37775180 · Clinical medicine (London, England) (2023) — SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and myocarditis.
does_not_resolve 30000765 · (2006) — Human Papillomavirus Vaccines.
Measure: Course matches the object's natural history Comparator: Known natural history of the object Hit rule: Clinical course (onset, peak, recovery) matches the object's natural history
Finding: No retrieved evidence addresses the natural history consistency of maculopapular rash following MMR vaccination. The only retrieved evidence relevant to cutaneous vaccine reactions (PMID 35141881) concerns SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, not MMR vaccine.
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular case report OR case series Natural-history consistency pubmed · 105 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular alternative diagnosis OR not vaccine-related pubmed · 4052 hits · run 2026-09-07
10 retrieved record(s)
ambiguous 33647971 · QJM : monthly journal of the Association (2021) — COVID-19 vaccine-related myositis.
does_not_resolve 37775180 · Clinical medicine (London, England) (2023) — SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and myocarditis.
does_not_resolve 30000765 · (2006) — Human Papillomavirus Vaccines.
Measure: Not attributable to a co-occurring condition Comparator: Co-occurring illness that could produce the object Hit rule: Object not better explained by a co-occurring condition (infection, etc.)
Finding: A single case report describes a 38-year-old woman who developed maculo-papular rash and rubella viremia one week after MMR vaccination, consistent with a vaccine-attributed rash after competing causes (measles) were excluded.
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular case report OR case series No confounding object pubmed · 21 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular alternative diagnosis OR not vaccine-related pubmed · 4052 hits · run 2026-09-07
12 retrieved record(s)
does_not_resolve 34312836 · Clinical pharmacology and therapeutics (2022) — Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors Used Concomitantly with Insulin Secretagogues and the Risk of Serious Hypoglycemia.
supports_node 31851892 · Acta medica portuguesa (2021) — Post Vaccine Rubella During a Measles Outbreak: Clinical Case.
does_not_resolve 33647971 · QJM : monthly journal of the Association (2021) — COVID-19 vaccine-related myositis.
ambiguous 37775180 · Clinical medicine (London, England) (2023) — SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and myocarditis.
ambiguous 30000765 · (2006) — Human Papillomavirus Vaccines.
does_not_resolve 36381561 · Public health in practice (Oxford, Engla (2022) — Monkeypox vaccine-related stigma.
does_not_resolve 36441403 · Current cardiology reports (2022) — COVID-19 Vaccine-Related Myocardial and Pericardial Inflammation.
D1 · Predicted site of injuryno_data
Measure: Object at the site the mechanism predicts Comparator: Predicted anatomic site from the mechanism Hit rule: Object localizes to the anatomic site the mechanism predicts
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular anatomic localization Predicted site of injury mechanism pubmed · 0 hits (0 hits — negative) · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Predicted site of injury not consistent with mechanism pubmed · 0 hits (0 hits — negative) · run 2026-09-07
D2 · Spared structuresno_data
Measure: Structures the mechanism should spare are spared Comparator: Structures predicted unaffected Hit rule: Structures predicted spared by the mechanism are indeed spared
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Spared structures not consistent with mechanism pubmed · 0 hits (0 hits — negative) · run 2026-09-07
D3 · Local vs systemic distributionno_data
Measure: Distribution matches mechanism scope Comparator: Local (injection site) vs systemic expectation Hit rule: Observed distribution (local vs systemic) matches the mechanism's predicted scope
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular anatomic localization Local vs systemic distribution mechanism pubmed · 0 hits (0 hits — negative) · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Local vs systemic distribution not consistent with mechanism pubmed · 0 hits (0 hits — negative) · run 2026-09-07
D4 · Kinetics classno_data
Measure: Onset/offset kinetics match the mechanism Comparator: Expected kinetic class (acute vs chronic) Hit rule: Onset and offset kinetics are in the class the mechanism predicts
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Kinetics class not consistent with mechanism pubmed · 0 hits (0 hits — negative) · run 2026-09-07
D5 · Platform-mechanism matchno_data
Measure: Mechanism is consistent with the platform Comparator: Mechanistic expectation for the platform Hit rule: The proposed mechanism is biologically consistent with the vaccine platform
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Platform-mechanism match not consistent with mechanism pubmed · 0 hits (0 hits — negative) · run 2026-09-07
H3 · Targeted treatment reversesno_data
Measure: A targeted treatment reverses the object in patients Comparator: Treatment-naive / placebo Hit rule: A mechanism-directed treatment reverses the object (vs control treatment)
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Targeted treatment reverses intervention OR treatment OR reversal pubmed · 15141570 hits · run 2026-09-07
Measure: No node's finding contradicts another Comparator: Internal consistency across nodes Hit rule: No evaluated node directly contradicts another (coherence)
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular No internal contradiction coherence OR latency OR susceptibility pubmed · 870030 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular No internal contradiction inconsistent OR contradicts pubmed · 27612 hits · run 2026-09-07
I2 · Analogy to a known objectno_data
Measure: Object analogous to a well-established analog Comparator: Established analog's profile Hit rule: The object's profile matches a well-established analog on key features
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Analogy to a known object coherence OR latency OR susceptibility pubmed · 870030 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Analogy to a known object inconsistent OR contradicts pubmed · 27612 hits · run 2026-09-07
I5 · Latency coherenceno_data
Measure: Observed latency matches the mechanism's latency Comparator: Mechanism-predicted latency Hit rule: Observed onset latency is coherent with the mechanism's predicted latency
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Latency coherence coherence OR latency OR susceptibility pubmed · 870030 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Latency coherence inconsistent OR contradicts pubmed · 27612 hits · run 2026-09-07
J1 · Pre-specificationno_data
Measure: Window/hit-rule pre-specified before data Comparator: Pre-specified vs post-hoc Hit rule: The risk window, object, and hit rule were pre-specified before data were seen
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Pre-specification pre-specified OR adjudicated pubmed · 13549 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Pre-specification post-hoc OR hypothesis-generating only pubmed · 1698 hits · run 2026-09-07
2 retrieved record(s)
does_not_resolve 39226489 · Journal of clinical oncology : official (2024) — Enhancing Precision in Detecting Severe Immune-Related Adverse Events: Comparative Analysis of Large Language Models and International Classification of Disease
does_not_resolve 41493293 · Journal of the American College of Cardi (2026) — Using Artificial Intelligence to Adjudicate Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Clinical Trials.
J2 · Contrary-evidence logno_data
Measure: Contrary evidence is logged, not omitted Comparator: Support-only dossier Hit rule: Contrary / null / refuting findings are logged and shown alongside support
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Contrary-evidence log pre-specified OR adjudicated pubmed · 13549 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Contrary-evidence log post-hoc OR hypothesis-generating only pubmed · 1698 hits · run 2026-09-07
1 retrieved record(s)
does_not_resolve 39226489 · Journal of clinical oncology : official (2024) — Enhancing Precision in Detecting Severe Immune-Related Adverse Events: Comparative Analysis of Large Language Models and International Classification of Disease
J3 · No temporality-only claimno_data
Measure: Claim not based on temporality alone Comparator: Sequence-only evidence Hit rule: The claim is not supported by temporal sequence alone (independent evidence exists)
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular No temporality-only claim pre-specified OR adjudicated pubmed · 13549 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular No temporality-only claim post-hoc OR hypothesis-generating only pubmed · 1698 hits · run 2026-09-07
1 retrieved record(s)
does_not_resolve 39226489 · Journal of clinical oncology : official (2024) — Enhancing Precision in Detecting Severe Immune-Related Adverse Events: Comparative Analysis of Large Language Models and International Classification of Disease
J4 · Passive-surveillance roleno_data
Measure: Passive-surveillance findings bounded correctly Comparator: Active-surveillance confirmation Hit rule: Passive-surveillance signals are framed as hypothesis-generating, not confirmatory
Finding: The retrieved evidence discusses the use of large language models and artificial intelligence to identify immune-related adverse events and major adverse cardiovascular events, but does not address rash maculo-papular associated with MMR vaccine in a passive surveillance context.
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Passive-surveillance role pre-specified OR adjudicated pubmed · 13549 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Passive-surveillance role post-hoc OR hypothesis-generating only pubmed · 1698 hits · run 2026-09-07
2 retrieved record(s)
does_not_resolve 39226489 · Journal of clinical oncology : official (2024) — Enhancing Precision in Detecting Severe Immune-Related Adverse Events: Comparative Analysis of Large Language Models and International Classification of Disease
does_not_resolve 41493293 · Journal of the American College of Cardi (2026) — Using Artificial Intelligence to Adjudicate Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Clinical Trials.
J5 · Dose mappingno_data
Measure: Dose/lot exposure mapped to the object Comparator: Unmapped exposure Hit rule: Dose / lot exposure is mapped to the object where the mechanism predicts it
Finding: The retrieved evidence focuses on detecting immune-related adverse events from immune checkpoint inhibitors using LLMs and ICD codes, with no mention of MMR vaccine, rash maculo-papular, or dose/lot exposure mapping.
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Dose mapping pre-specified OR adjudicated pubmed · 13549 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Dose mapping post-hoc OR hypothesis-generating only pubmed · 1698 hits · run 2026-09-07
1 retrieved record(s)
does_not_resolve 39226489 · Journal of clinical oncology : official (2024) — Enhancing Precision in Detecting Severe Immune-Related Adverse Events: Comparative Analysis of Large Language Models and International Classification of Disease
Epidemiologic chassis 13/13 evaluated
B1 · Excess vs baselineno_data
Measure: RR/IRR vs unexposed or prior window Comparator: Unvaccinated person-time or pre-vaccination window Hit rule: RR/IRR > 1 with CI excluding 1 after pre-specified confounders
Finding: No retrieved evidence addresses the specific pairwise node of MMR vaccine and rash maculo-papular, the excess risk relative to baseline, or the proposed self-controlled case series hit rule.
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Excess vs baseline incidence risk cohort OR self-controlled case series pubmed · 945 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular no association OR null OR no increased risk Excess vs baseline pubmed · 88464 hits · run 2026-09-07
9 retrieved record(s)
does_not_resolve 34937500 · Expert review of vaccines (2022) — Self-controlled case series design in vaccine safety: a systematic review.
does_not_resolve 38875047 · The International journal of risk & safe (2024) — Self-controlled risk interval study of rotavirus vaccine safety: Findings and implications.
does_not_resolve 40664645 · Nature communications (2025) — Evaluating the safety of XBB.1.5-containing COVID-19 mRNA vaccines using a self-controlled case series study.
does_not_resolve 42661284 · Expert review of vaccines (2026) — Stroke risk following BNT162b2 vaccination: a systematic review and meta-analysis of self-controlled case series studies.
does_not_resolve 38388239 · Vaccine (2024) — Mortality risk after COVID-19 vaccination: A self-controlled case series study.
does_not_resolve 34672967 · Lancet (London, England) (2021) — Tirzepatide versus insulin glargine in type 2 diabetes and increased cardiovascular risk (SURPASS-4): a randomised, open-label, parallel-group, multicentre, pha
does_not_resolve 34489307 · Gut (2022) — Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and incident major adverse cardiovascular events: results from a nationwide histology cohort.
B2 · SCCSno_data
Measure: Self-controlled case series risk ratio Comparator: Individuals' own risk intervals (no-event) Hit rule: SCCS risk ratio > 1 in the post-vaccination window, CI excluding 1
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular SCCS incidence risk cohort OR self-controlled case series pubmed · 945 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular no association OR null OR no increased risk SCCS pubmed · 88572 hits · run 2026-09-07
8 retrieved record(s)
does_not_resolve 42661284 · Expert review of vaccines (2026) — Stroke risk following BNT162b2 vaccination: a systematic review and meta-analysis of self-controlled case series studies.
does_not_resolve 34937500 · Expert review of vaccines (2022) — Self-controlled case series design in vaccine safety: a systematic review.
does_not_resolve 38875047 · The International journal of risk & safe (2024) — Self-controlled risk interval study of rotavirus vaccine safety: Findings and implications.
does_not_resolve 40664645 · Nature communications (2025) — Evaluating the safety of XBB.1.5-containing COVID-19 mRNA vaccines using a self-controlled case series study.
does_not_resolve 38388239 · Vaccine (2024) — Mortality risk after COVID-19 vaccination: A self-controlled case series study.
does_not_resolve 39795956 · International journal of molecular scien (2024) — The Potential Metalloestrogenic Effect of Aluminum on Breast Cancer Risk for Antiperspirant Users.
does_not_resolve 36696094 · JAMA cardiology (2023) — Association of Rurality With Risk of Heart Failure.
B3 · Cohort / risk-intervalno_data
Measure: Incidence rate ratio in defined window Comparator: Pre-specified risk vs comparison interval Hit rule: IRR > 1 in the pre-specified window, CI excluding 1, stratified by age/sex
Finding: The retrieved evidence includes only a systematic review of self-controlled case series methodology (PMID 34937500) and several studies and meta-analyses on other vaccines (rotavirus, COVID-19, shingles) or unrelated genetic associations (GSTM1/GSTT1); no study directly addresses the incidence rate ratio of maculo-papular rash following MMR vaccination in a pre-specified risk window stratified by age/sex.
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Cohort / risk-interval incidence risk cohort OR self-controlled case series pubmed · 945 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular no association OR null OR no increased risk Cohort / risk-interval pubmed · 88073 hits · run 2026-09-07
10 retrieved record(s)
does_not_resolve 34937500 · Expert review of vaccines (2022) — Self-controlled case series design in vaccine safety: a systematic review.
does_not_resolve 42661284 · Expert review of vaccines (2026) — Stroke risk following BNT162b2 vaccination: a systematic review and meta-analysis of self-controlled case series studies.
does_not_resolve 38875047 · The International journal of risk & safe (2024) — Self-controlled risk interval study of rotavirus vaccine safety: Findings and implications.
does_not_resolve 40664645 · Nature communications (2025) — Evaluating the safety of XBB.1.5-containing COVID-19 mRNA vaccines using a self-controlled case series study.
does_not_resolve 41284649 · PloS one (2025) — Risk of neurologic or immune-mediated adverse events after COVID-19 diagnosis in the United States.
does_not_resolve 23296494 · Molecular biology reports (2013) — Assessment of the association between GSTM1 null genotype and risk of type 2 diabetes.
does_not_resolve 23949879 · Tumour biology : the journal of the Inte (2014) — Meta-analysis of the association between GSTT1 null genotype and risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in Chinese.
B4 · Meta-analysis / poolingno_data
Measure: Pooled effect across studies Comparator: Pooled estimate with heterogeneity Hit rule: Pooled estimate > 1 (or < 1) with quantified heterogeneity (I2)
Finding: The retrieved evidence includes a meta-analysis of self-controlled case series studies that reports a pooled incidence rate ratio for stroke following BNT162b2 vaccination, but none of the retrieved studies provide a pooled estimate for rash maculo-papular following MMR vaccination.
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Meta-analysis / pooling incidence risk cohort OR self-controlled case series pubmed · 945 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular no association OR null OR no increased risk Meta-analysis / pooling pubmed · 111906 hits · run 2026-09-07
13 retrieved record(s)
does_not_resolve 34937500 · Expert review of vaccines (2022) — Self-controlled case series design in vaccine safety: a systematic review.
does_not_resolve 42661284 · Expert review of vaccines (2026) — Stroke risk following BNT162b2 vaccination: a systematic review and meta-analysis of self-controlled case series studies.
does_not_resolve 38875047 · The International journal of risk & safe (2024) — Self-controlled risk interval study of rotavirus vaccine safety: Findings and implications.
does_not_resolve 40664645 · Nature communications (2025) — Evaluating the safety of XBB.1.5-containing COVID-19 mRNA vaccines using a self-controlled case series study.
does_not_resolve 29402646 · Journal of the American Medical Director (2018) — Fall-Risk-Increasing Drugs: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis: III. Others.
does_not_resolve 27837248 · Urolithiasis (2017) — Nephrolithiasis as a risk factor of chronic kidney disease: a meta-analysis of cohort studies with 4,770,691 participants.
does_not_resolve 28230042 · Journal of cancer research and therapeut (2016) — Meta-analysis of association between mobile phone use and glioma risk.
B5 · Negative-control outcomesno_data
Measure: No excess for outcomes the vaccine should not cause Comparator: Negative-control outcomes (unaffected by mechanism) Hit rule: Null for negative-control outcomes while target outcome is positive (specificity)
Finding: No retrieved evidence addresses rash maculo-papular as a negative-control outcome for MMR vaccine, or any vaccine-related rash or negative-control outcomes in the context of MMR vaccination.
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Negative-control outcomes incidence risk cohort OR self-controlled case series pubmed · 945 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular no association OR null OR no increased risk Negative-control outcomes pubmed · 88275 hits · run 2026-09-07
8 retrieved record(s)
does_not_resolve 34937500 · Expert review of vaccines (2022) — Self-controlled case series design in vaccine safety: a systematic review.
does_not_resolve 38875047 · The International journal of risk & safe (2024) — Self-controlled risk interval study of rotavirus vaccine safety: Findings and implications.
does_not_resolve 40664645 · Nature communications (2025) — Evaluating the safety of XBB.1.5-containing COVID-19 mRNA vaccines using a self-controlled case series study.
does_not_resolve 42661284 · Expert review of vaccines (2026) — Stroke risk following BNT162b2 vaccination: a systematic review and meta-analysis of self-controlled case series studies.
does_not_resolve 38388239 · Vaccine (2024) — Mortality risk after COVID-19 vaccination: A self-controlled case series study.
does_not_resolve 38833248 · JAMA network open (2024) — Valproate Use During Spermatogenesis and Risk to Offspring.
does_not_resolve 42486607 · BMJ (Clinical research ed.) (2026) — Risk of hair loss associated with glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists in adults with type 2 diabetes: target trial emulation.
B6 · Other-antigen comparisonno_data
Measure: Risk vs a different-antigen comparator Comparator: Comparator product with a different antigen Hit rule: Risk specific to the target antigen, not shared with the comparator antigen
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Other-antigen comparison incidence risk cohort OR self-controlled case series pubmed · 945 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular no association OR null OR no increased risk Other-antigen comparison pubmed · 88037 hits · run 2026-09-07
9 retrieved record(s)
does_not_resolve 42661284 · Expert review of vaccines (2026) — Stroke risk following BNT162b2 vaccination: a systematic review and meta-analysis of self-controlled case series studies.
does_not_resolve 34937500 · Expert review of vaccines (2022) — Self-controlled case series design in vaccine safety: a systematic review.
does_not_resolve 38875047 · The International journal of risk & safe (2024) — Self-controlled risk interval study of rotavirus vaccine safety: Findings and implications.
does_not_resolve 40664645 · Nature communications (2025) — Evaluating the safety of XBB.1.5-containing COVID-19 mRNA vaccines using a self-controlled case series study.
does_not_resolve 38388239 · Vaccine (2024) — Mortality risk after COVID-19 vaccination: A self-controlled case series study.
does_not_resolve 23949879 · Tumour biology : the journal of the Inte (2014) — Meta-analysis of the association between GSTT1 null genotype and risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in Chinese.
does_not_resolve 23296494 · Molecular biology reports (2013) — Assessment of the association between GSTM1 null genotype and risk of type 2 diabetes.
B7 · Absolute riskno_data
Measure: Per-100k risk in window Comparator: Absolute incidence per 100k Hit rule: Absolute risk reported and stable across the window (not an artifact of rarity)
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Absolute risk incidence risk cohort OR self-controlled case series pubmed · 945 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular no association OR null OR no increased risk Absolute risk pubmed · 111304 hits · run 2026-09-07
12 retrieved record(s)
does_not_resolve 34937500 · Expert review of vaccines (2022) — Self-controlled case series design in vaccine safety: a systematic review.
does_not_resolve 38875047 · The International journal of risk & safe (2024) — Self-controlled risk interval study of rotavirus vaccine safety: Findings and implications.
does_not_resolve 40664645 · Nature communications (2025) — Evaluating the safety of XBB.1.5-containing COVID-19 mRNA vaccines using a self-controlled case series study.
does_not_resolve 42661284 · Expert review of vaccines (2026) — Stroke risk following BNT162b2 vaccination: a systematic review and meta-analysis of self-controlled case series studies.
does_not_resolve 38388239 · Vaccine (2024) — Mortality risk after COVID-19 vaccination: A self-controlled case series study.
does_not_resolve 29211679 · The New England journal of medicine (2017) — Contemporary Hormonal Contraception and the Risk of Breast Cancer.
does_not_resolve 23484825 · The New England journal of medicine (2013) — Risk of ischemic heart disease in women after radiotherapy for breast cancer.
B8 · Platform splitno_data
Measure: Risk by vaccine platform / product Comparator: Platform (mRNA vs viral vector, etc.) Hit rule: Risk attributable to a specific platform, not to 'a vaccine' generally
Finding: None of the retrieved studies address the specific node of rash maculo-papular after MMR vaccination by vaccine platform; they focus on other vaccines (rotavirus, COVID-19, shingles) or other outcomes (shingles, stroke, cancer, diabetes) and are not relevant to this node.
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Platform split incidence risk cohort OR self-controlled case series pubmed · 945 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular no association OR null OR no increased risk Platform split pubmed · 88102 hits · run 2026-09-07
7 retrieved record(s)
does_not_resolve 34937500 · Expert review of vaccines (2022) — Self-controlled case series design in vaccine safety: a systematic review.
does_not_resolve 38875047 · The International journal of risk & safe (2024) — Self-controlled risk interval study of rotavirus vaccine safety: Findings and implications.
does_not_resolve 40664645 · Nature communications (2025) — Evaluating the safety of XBB.1.5-containing COVID-19 mRNA vaccines using a self-controlled case series study.
does_not_resolve 42661284 · Expert review of vaccines (2026) — Stroke risk following BNT162b2 vaccination: a systematic review and meta-analysis of self-controlled case series studies.
does_not_resolve 36370744 · The Lancet. Child & adolescent health (2023) — Cancer risk with topical calcineurin inhibitors, pimecrolimus and tacrolimus, for atopic dermatitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.
does_not_resolve 23296494 · Molecular biology reports (2013) — Assessment of the association between GSTM1 null genotype and risk of type 2 diabetes.
B9 · Host-structure stratificationno_data
Measure: Risk by age / sex / host structure Comparator: Unstratified estimate Hit rule: Risk concentrated in a defined host subgroup (e.g. young males), stable across sources
Finding: No retrieved evidence addresses risk of rash maculo-papular after MMR vaccination stratified by host subgroup (e.g., age/sex or host structure). The retrieved studies focus on self-controlled case series methodology or adverse events from other vaccines (rotavirus, COVID-19, shingles, BNT162b2) and on genetic polymorphisms unrelated to vaccines.
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Host-structure stratification incidence risk cohort OR self-controlled case series pubmed · 945 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular no association OR null OR no increased risk Host-structure stratification pubmed · 88035 hits · run 2026-09-07
8 retrieved record(s)
does_not_resolve 34937500 · Expert review of vaccines (2022) — Self-controlled case series design in vaccine safety: a systematic review.
does_not_resolve 38875047 · The International journal of risk & safe (2024) — Self-controlled risk interval study of rotavirus vaccine safety: Findings and implications.
does_not_resolve 40664645 · Nature communications (2025) — Evaluating the safety of XBB.1.5-containing COVID-19 mRNA vaccines using a self-controlled case series study.
does_not_resolve 42661284 · Expert review of vaccines (2026) — Stroke risk following BNT162b2 vaccination: a systematic review and meta-analysis of self-controlled case series studies.
does_not_resolve 23949879 · Tumour biology : the journal of the Inte (2014) — Meta-analysis of the association between GSTT1 null genotype and risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in Chinese.
does_not_resolve 23296494 · Molecular biology reports (2013) — Assessment of the association between GSTM1 null genotype and risk of type 2 diabetes.
does_not_resolve 22622525 · Journal of assisted reproduction and gen (2012) — GSTM1 null genotype contributes to increased risk of male infertility: a meta-analysis.
B10 · Formulation / component changeno_data
Measure: Risk tracks a formulation change Comparator: Pre- vs post-change formulation Hit rule: Risk change tracks a documented formulation / component change over time
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Formulation / component change incidence risk cohort OR self-controlled case series pubmed · 945 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular no association OR null OR no increased risk Formulation / component change pubmed · 88197 hits · run 2026-09-07
7 retrieved record(s)
does_not_resolve 34937500 · Expert review of vaccines (2022) — Self-controlled case series design in vaccine safety: a systematic review.
does_not_resolve 42661284 · Expert review of vaccines (2026) — Stroke risk following BNT162b2 vaccination: a systematic review and meta-analysis of self-controlled case series studies.
does_not_resolve 38875047 · The International journal of risk & safe (2024) — Self-controlled risk interval study of rotavirus vaccine safety: Findings and implications.
does_not_resolve 40664645 · Nature communications (2025) — Evaluating the safety of XBB.1.5-containing COVID-19 mRNA vaccines using a self-controlled case series study.
does_not_resolve 41092926 · Lancet (London, England) (2025) — Burden of 375 diseases and injuries, risk-attributable burden of 88 risk factors, and healthy life expectancy in 204 countries and territories, including 660 su
does_not_resolve 23949879 · Tumour biology : the journal of the Inte (2014) — Meta-analysis of the association between GSTT1 null genotype and risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in Chinese.
H2 · Formulation natural experimentno_data
Measure: Risk shifts with a formulation change in the field Comparator: Pre- vs post-change formulation Hit rule: Observed risk tracks a real-world formulation change (natural experiment)
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Formulation natural experiment intervention OR treatment OR reversal pubmed · 15141570 hits · run 2026-09-07
Measure: Risk signal appears/disappears across a pause or policy change Comparator: Pre- vs post-pause period Hit rule: The signal appears or disappears coherently with a rollout / pause (H4)
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Policy / pause signal intervention OR treatment OR reversal pubmed · 15141570 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Policy / pause signal no effect intervention pubmed · 0 hits (0 hits — negative) · run 2026-09-07
I3 · Infection coherenceno_data
Measure: Pattern is coherent with or distinct from infection Comparator: Infection-matched comparison Hit rule: The post-vaccine pattern is coherent with (or clearly distinct from) the infection pattern
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Infection coherence coherence OR latency OR susceptibility pubmed · 870030 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Infection coherence inconsistent OR contradicts pubmed · 27612 hits · run 2026-09-07
Mediator & biological gradient 24/24 evaluated
C1n · Dose strength gradientno_data
Measure: Risk vs dose strength (dose size) Comparator: Lower dose strength Hit rule: Monotonic dose-response in dose strength (larger dose -> higher risk)
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Dose strength gradient dose-response OR dose effect pubmed · 1299145 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular no dose effect OR no dose-response Dose strength gradient pubmed · 111 hits · run 2026-09-07
1 retrieved record(s)
does_not_resolve 39082700 · The Journal of infectious diseases (2025) — Effectiveness of MenB-4C Vaccine Against Gonorrhea: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.
C2n · Dose number gradientno_data
Measure: Risk vs dose number (1st vs 2nd vs 3rd) Comparator: First dose Hit rule: Risk increases (or shows a defined pattern) with dose number
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Dose number gradient dose-response OR dose effect pubmed · 1299145 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular no dose effect OR no dose-response Dose number gradient pubmed · 555 hits · run 2026-09-07
3 retrieved record(s)
does_not_resolve 39082700 · The Journal of infectious diseases (2025) — Effectiveness of MenB-4C Vaccine Against Gonorrhea: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.
does_not_resolve 30316563 · Radiotherapy and oncology : journal of t (2019) — Volume effects of radiotherapy on the risk of second primary cancers: A systematic review of clinical and epidemiological studies.
does_not_resolve 42106826 · The international journal of behavioral (2026) — Physical activity, falls, and dementia risk in adults aged ≥ 60: evidence from three cohorts.
C3n · Measured-exposure tertilesno_data
Measure: Risk vs measured exposure tertile Comparator: Lowest-exposure tertile Hit rule: Risk ordered by measured-exposure tertile (high > mid > low)
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Measured-exposure tertiles dose-response OR dose effect pubmed · 1299145 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular no dose effect OR no dose-response Measured-exposure tertiles pubmed · 0 hits (0 hits — negative) · run 2026-09-07
1 retrieved record(s)
does_not_resolve 39082700 · The Journal of infectious diseases (2025) — Effectiveness of MenB-4C Vaccine Against Gonorrhea: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.
C4n · Organoid concentration curveno_data
Measure: Effect vs antigen concentration in organoid Comparator: Vehicle / zero antigen Hit rule: Dose-dependent effect across a graded concentration curve
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Organoid concentration curve dose-response OR dose effect pubmed · 1299145 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular no dose effect OR no dose-response Organoid concentration curve pubmed · 11 hits · run 2026-09-07
1 retrieved record(s)
does_not_resolve 39082700 · The Journal of infectious diseases (2025) — Effectiveness of MenB-4C Vaccine Against Gonorrhea: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.
C5n · EC50 vs Cmax coherenceno_data
Measure: Measured exposure reaches effect threshold Comparator: Pharmacokinetic Cmax vs EC50 Hit rule: Achieved exposure (Cmax/tissue) plausibly reaches the in-vitro EC50
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular EC50 vs Cmax coherence dose-response OR dose effect pubmed · 1299145 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular no dose effect OR no dose-response EC50 vs Cmax coherence pubmed · 0 hits (0 hits — negative) · run 2026-09-07
1 retrieved record(s)
does_not_resolve 39082700 · The Journal of infectious diseases (2025) — Effectiveness of MenB-4C Vaccine Against Gonorrhea: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.
E1 · Mediator identified in casesno_data
Measure: Mediator present in affected tissue/cells Comparator: Unaffected tissue / control Hit rule: The hypothesized mediator is detected in the affected compartment and not (or less) in control
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular mechanism Mediator identified in cases in vitro OR patient-derived pubmed · 29242 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Mediator identified in cases not associated mechanism pubmed · 0 hits (0 hits — negative) · run 2026-09-07
E2 · Mediator in healthy vaccineesno_data
Measure: Mediator detectable after vaccination Comparator: Pre-vaccination baseline Hit rule: Mediator appears after vaccination and tracks the exposure window
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular mechanism Mediator in healthy vaccinees in vitro OR patient-derived pubmed · 29242 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Mediator in healthy vaccinees not associated mechanism pubmed · 0 hits (0 hits — negative) · run 2026-09-07
E3 · Infection contrastno_data
Measure: Mediator absent/low after natural infection Comparator: Recovered natural infection Hit rule: Mediator signal is specific to vaccination vs a comparable natural-infection control
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular mechanism Infection contrast in vitro OR patient-derived pubmed · 29242 hits · run 2026-09-07
Measure: Phenotype/mediator transferred to a recipient system Comparator: Control transfer Hit rule: The effect / mediator transfers to a naive recipient system
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular mechanism Transfer to recipient in vitro OR patient-derived pubmed · 29242 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Transfer to recipient not associated mechanism pubmed · 0 hits (0 hits — negative) · run 2026-09-07
E5 · Transfer specificityno_data
Measure: Transfer requires the specific mediator Comparator: Transfer with mediator present Hit rule: Transfer effect is lost when the specific mediator is removed
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular mechanism Transfer specificity in vitro OR patient-derived pubmed · 29242 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Transfer specificity not associated mechanism pubmed · 0 hits (0 hits — negative) · run 2026-09-07
E6 · Depletion / knockdownno_data
Measure: Removing the mediator reduces the effect Comparator: Non-targeted knockdown Hit rule: Knockdown / depletion of the mediator reduces the phenotype
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular mechanism Depletion / knockdown in vitro OR patient-derived pubmed · 29242 hits · run 2026-09-07
Measure: Adding the mediator restores the effect Comparator: Add-back of a control protein Hit rule: Adding back the mediator (not a control) restores the phenotype
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular mechanism Add-back rescue in vitro OR patient-derived pubmed · 29242 hits · run 2026-09-07
Measure: Neutralizing the mediator blocks the effect Comparator: Isotype control Hit rule: Neutralization of the mediator (not an isotype control) blocks the phenotype
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular mechanism Neutralization in vitro OR patient-derived pubmed · 29242 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Neutralization not associated mechanism pubmed · 0 hits (0 hits — negative) · run 2026-09-07
E9 · Isotype controlno_data
Measure: Isotype control does not reproduce the effect Comparator: Active antibody Hit rule: An isotype control fails to reproduce the block/activation
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular mechanism Isotype control in vitro OR patient-derived pubmed · 29242 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Isotype control not associated mechanism pubmed · 0 hits (0 hits — negative) · run 2026-09-07
F1 · Full product reproducesno_data
Measure: Full vaccine product reproduces the effect Comparator: No-product control Hit rule: The full product (not a subcomponent) reproduces the effect
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Full product reproduces component OR antigen OR vector pubmed · 2045239 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Full product reproduces no effect component isolation pubmed · 0 hits (0 hits — negative) · run 2026-09-07
does_not_resolve 25876176 · Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics (2015) — Progress on adenovirus-vectored universal influenza vaccines.
does_not_resolve 21952287 · Cancer journal (Sudbury, Mass.) (2011) — Viral vector-based therapeutic cancer vaccines.
does_not_resolve 27384578 · Viruses (2016) — Newcastle Disease Virus as a Vaccine Vector for Development of Human and Veterinary Vaccines.
F2 · Empty vector / particleno_data
Measure: Vector/particle without antigen reproduces (or not) Comparator: Full product Hit rule: Effect attributed to (or excluded from) the vector/particle backbone alone
Finding: No evidence was found that directly addresses whether a rash maculo-papular attributed to the MMR vaccine can be reproduced by a viral or bacterial vector/particle backbone alone, without the measles, mumps, or rubella antigens.
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Empty vector / particle component OR antigen OR vector pubmed · 2045239 hits · run 2026-09-07
does_not_resolve 25876176 · Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics (2015) — Progress on adenovirus-vectored universal influenza vaccines.
does_not_resolve 21952287 · Cancer journal (Sudbury, Mass.) (2011) — Viral vector-based therapeutic cancer vaccines.
does_not_resolve 27384578 · Viruses (2016) — Newcastle Disease Virus as a Vaccine Vector for Development of Human and Veterinary Vaccines.
F4 · Irrelevant cargono_data
Measure: Irrelevant cargo does not reproduce the effect Comparator: Vector with the target antigen Hit rule: Irrelevant cargo fails to reproduce the effect (specificity)
Finding: No retrieved evidence addresses MMR vaccine causing rash maculo-papular or describes an irrelevant cargo failing to reproduce this effect.
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Irrelevant cargo component OR antigen OR vector pubmed · 2045239 hits · run 2026-09-07
does_not_resolve 25876176 · Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics (2015) — Progress on adenovirus-vectored universal influenza vaccines.
does_not_resolve 21952287 · Cancer journal (Sudbury, Mass.) (2011) — Viral vector-based therapeutic cancer vaccines.
does_not_resolve 27384578 · Viruses (2016) — Newcastle Disease Virus as a Vaccine Vector for Development of Human and Veterinary Vaccines.
F5 · Infection preparationno_data
Measure: Infection preparation vs product comparison Comparator: Product-derived preparation Hit rule: Effect compares correctly between infection and product preparations
Finding: The retrieved evidence discusses virus-vectored influenza vaccines, live bacterial vaccine vectors, and vaccine development platforms, but none report on MMR vaccine causing rash maculo-papular or provide data comparing infection preparation vs product preparation for this adverse event.
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Infection preparation component OR antigen OR vector pubmed · 2045239 hits · run 2026-09-07
does_not_resolve 25876176 · Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics (2015) — Progress on adenovirus-vectored universal influenza vaccines.
does_not_resolve 21952287 · Cancer journal (Sudbury, Mass.) (2011) — Viral vector-based therapeutic cancer vaccines.
does_not_resolve 27384578 · Viruses (2016) — Newcastle Disease Virus as a Vaccine Vector for Development of Human and Veterinary Vaccines.
F6 · Cytokine / adjuvant mixno_data
Measure: Cytokine/adjuvant mix alone reproduces (or not) Comparator: Individual components Hit rule: The effect is (or is not) reproducible by the cytokine/adjuvant mix alone
Finding: No retrieved evidence addresses the reproducibility of maculo-papular rash by a cytokine/adjuvant mix alone. The abstracts discuss viral and bacterial vaccine vectors and general immune responses, but none describe a cytokine/adjuvant mix causing rash or any adverse event.
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Cytokine / adjuvant mix component OR antigen OR vector pubmed · 2045239 hits · run 2026-09-07
does_not_resolve 25876176 · Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics (2015) — Progress on adenovirus-vectored universal influenza vaccines.
does_not_resolve 21952287 · Cancer journal (Sudbury, Mass.) (2011) — Viral vector-based therapeutic cancer vaccines.
does_not_resolve 27384578 · Viruses (2016) — Newcastle Disease Virus as a Vaccine Vector for Development of Human and Veterinary Vaccines.
F7 · Component combinationno_data
Measure: Defined component combination reproduces the effect Comparator: Single components Hit rule: A defined combination reproduces the effect that single components do not
Finding: No evidence found. Retrieved articles discuss viral and bacterial vaccine vectors for influenza, measles, cancer, and Newcastle disease, but none address MMR vaccine causing maculo-papular rash or any defined component combination reproducing an effect that single components do not.
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Component combination component OR antigen OR vector pubmed · 2045239 hits · run 2026-09-07
does_not_resolve 25876176 · Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics (2015) — Progress on adenovirus-vectored universal influenza vaccines.
does_not_resolve 21952287 · Cancer journal (Sudbury, Mass.) (2011) — Viral vector-based therapeutic cancer vaccines.
does_not_resolve 27384578 · Viruses (2016) — Newcastle Disease Virus as a Vaccine Vector for Development of Human and Veterinary Vaccines.
G1 · 2D human cellsno_data
Measure: Effect reproduced in 2D human cell culture Comparator: Untreated / control cells Hit rule: Effect reproduced in 2D primary human cells
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular 2D human cells animal OR organoid OR cell model pubmed · 1818526 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular 2D human cells not reproduced model pubmed · 0 hits (0 hits — negative) · run 2026-09-07
G2 · Organoid / chipno_data
Measure: Effect reproduced in organoid / organ-on-chip Comparator: Unexposed organoid Hit rule: Effect reproduced in a 3D organoid / organ-on-chip system
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Organoid / chip animal OR organoid OR cell model pubmed · 1818526 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Organoid / chip not reproduced model pubmed · 0 hits (0 hits — negative) · run 2026-09-07
H1 · Block in vitro / in vivono_data
Measure: Blocking the mediator/mechanism prevents the effect Comparator: Control intervention Hit rule: Blocking the mechanism prevents or reverses the effect (not with a control intervention)
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Block in vitro / in vivo intervention OR treatment OR reversal pubmed · 15141570 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Block in vitro / in vivo no effect intervention pubmed · 0 hits (0 hits — negative) · run 2026-09-07
Clinical / animal / host 7/7 evaluated
E10 · Host-line dependenceno_data
Measure: Effect depends on host line/cell type Comparator: Susceptible host line Hit rule: Effect is restricted to a defined host line / genotype, not universal
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular mechanism Host-line dependence in vitro OR patient-derived pubmed · 29242 hits · run 2026-09-07
Measure: Effect in animal via the clinical route of administration Comparator: Vehicle, same route Hit rule: Effect reproduced in an animal using the clinical route of administration
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Animal, clinical route animal OR organoid OR cell model pubmed · 1818526 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Animal, clinical route not reproduced model pubmed · 0 hits (0 hits — negative) · run 2026-09-07
G4 · Susceptible animalno_data
Measure: Effect in a susceptible animal model Comparator: Non-susceptible model Hit rule: Effect in a defined susceptible animal model
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Susceptible animal animal OR organoid OR cell model pubmed · 1818526 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Susceptible animal not reproduced model pubmed · 0 hits (0 hits — negative) · run 2026-09-07
G5 · Replication across labsno_data
Measure: Effect replicated in an independent lab Comparator: Original result Hit rule: The key effect is replicated in an independent laboratory
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Replication across labs animal OR organoid OR cell model pubmed · 1818526 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Replication across labs not reproduced model pubmed · 0 hits (0 hits — negative) · run 2026-09-07
G6 · Blinded scoringno_data
Measure: Outcomes scored blinded Comparator: Unblinded reference Hit rule: Primary outcomes scored by a blinded assessor
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Blinded scoring animal OR organoid OR cell model pubmed · 1818526 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Blinded scoring not reproduced model pubmed · 0 hits (0 hits — negative) · run 2026-09-07
G7 · Experimental time courseno_data
Measure: Effect follows a defined experimental time course Comparator: No-exposure time course Hit rule: The effect's onset/offset follows a defined experimental time course
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Experimental time course animal OR organoid OR cell model pubmed · 1818526 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Experimental time course not reproduced model pubmed · 0 hits (0 hits — negative) · run 2026-09-07
I4 · Susceptibility traitno_data
Measure: A host trait / marker defines susceptibility Comparator: Trait-negative hosts Hit rule: A defined host trait / marker enriches for susceptibility
Finding: no evidence found
Cited: (none)
supporting: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Susceptibility trait coherence OR latency OR susceptibility pubmed · 870030 hits · run 2026-09-07
mirror: MMR vaccine Rash maculo-papular Susceptibility trait inconsistent OR contradicts pubmed · 27612 hits · run 2026-09-07
How this was built
Per node: a supporting and a mirror PubMed query built from the node's measure / population / comparator / hit_rule; top hits fetched (title + abstract); each record classified (supports / refutes / ambiguous) by xAI with a heuristic fallback; a per-node synthesis is generated strictly from the retrieved PMIDs; the node status is then rolled up to C1–C6. Full query provenance is shown per node above. Reproduce the build: python -m evidence_run. Data: data/evidence_run/state.json.