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Vaccine Evidence Summary

HPV Vaccine (Human Papillomavirus)

Last updated: July 2026  ·  Status: Current U.S. licensed product reviewed

ⓘ Methodology Note

This page summarizes published pre-licensure clinical trial data, post-licensure surveillance findings, and peer-reviewed epidemiological studies for HPV vaccines currently and historically licensed in the United States (Gardasil® was licensed in 2006 and withdrawn in 2016; Gardasil® 9, licensed in 2014, is the only HPV vaccine currently distributed in the U.S.; Cervarix® was licensed in 2009 and withdrawn in 2016 but remains available in other countries). Safety and efficacy data are presented without interpretive language that implies the vaccine is "safe" or "unsafe." Each section notes the quality and strength of the underlying evidence. Data are drawn from FDA review documents, published clinical trials, Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD) analyses, VAERS summaries, Institute of Medicine / National Academies consensus reports, Cochrane systematic reviews, WHO GACVS statements, and peer-reviewed literature. Where findings are inconsistent or limited, those limitations are explicitly stated.

1. Basic Information

Diseases Protected Against

Human Papillomavirus (HPV) is the most common sexually transmitted infection globally. There are more than 200 HPV genotypes, of which approximately 40 infect the anogenital tract. Persistent infection with high-risk (oncogenic) HPV types is a necessary cause of cervical cancer and is associated with a proportion of vulvar, vaginal, penile, anal, and oropharyngeal (throat) cancers. Low-risk HPV types (principally types 6 and 11) cause over 90% of anogenital warts and nearly all cases of recurrent respiratory papillomatosis (RRP).

HPV Types Associated Diseases Attributable Fraction
Types 16, 18 (high-risk) Cervical cancer (squamous cell and adenocarcinoma); anal, vulvar, vaginal, penile, and oropharyngeal cancers ~70% of cervical cancers; ~80–90% of HPV-related anal and oropharyngeal cancers
Types 31, 33, 45, 52, 58 (high-risk, additional) Cervical and other anogenital cancers ~15–20% of cervical cancers (cumulatively); covered by Gardasil 9
Types 6, 11 (low-risk) Anogenital warts; recurrent respiratory papillomatosis (RRP) >90% of anogenital warts; near-100% of RRP

Source: IARC Monographs; CDC Pink Book (HPV chapter); Saraiya et al. (2015) J Natl Cancer Inst.

CDC Recommended Schedule (United States, 2025)

Population Schedule Notes
Routine (ages 9–14 years) 2-dose series: 0 and 6–12 months Minimum interval: 5 months between doses. If dose 2 is given <5 months after dose 1, a 3rd dose is needed.
Routine (ages 15–26 years) 3-dose series: 0, 1–2, and 6 months Recommended minimum intervals: 4 weeks between doses 1 & 2; 12 weeks between doses 2 & 3; 5 months between doses 1 & 3.
Catch-up (ages 27–45 years) 3-dose series: 0, 1–2, and 6 months Shared clinical decision-making. Not routinely recommended for all adults in this range; potential benefit is lower because most individuals have already been exposed to HPV.
Immunocompromised (including HIV) 3-dose series (including ages 9–14) 3 doses are recommended regardless of age at initiation.
History of sexual abuse or assault Initiate as early as age 9 ACIP recommends consideration of initiating the HPV vaccine series at age 9 for children with a history of sexual abuse.

Source: CDC ACIP, 2025 Child & Adolescent and Adult Immunization Schedules. Note: The U.S. schedule has evolved — universal vaccination was initially recommended for females (2006), extended to males (2011), and the age-9–14 2-dose schedule was adopted in 2016 following evidence of non-inferior immunogenicity.

Licensed Products (U.S.)

2. Pre-Licensure Clinical Trial Data

Gardasil® (Quadrivalent) — Pivotal Trials (Licensed 2006)

Gardasil was evaluated in four placebo-controlled Phase 2 and Phase 3 trials (FUTURE I, FUTURE II, and two immunogenicity bridging studies). The combined safety population included approximately ~21,500 participants who received at least one dose of Gardasil (females aged 9–45; males aged 9–26). ~13,700 received Gardasil in the placebo-controlled efficacy populations. The pivotal trials used an aluminum-adjuvant-containing placebo (AAHS) rather than saline. This was intended to preserve blinding given the vaccine's high reactogenicity, but the FDA noted that this design choice may reduce the ability to detect adjuvant-attributable adverse events.

Metric Data (Gardasil Quadrivalent) Evidence Strength
Total participants (safety population) ~21,500 (Gardasil); ~12,800 placebo/active comparator Strong Large by vaccine trial standards
Duration of safety follow-up Median ~3–4 years; subset followed for up to 14 years in Nordic extension studies Strong
Efficacy (cervical CIN2/3+ caused by HPV 16/18) ~98% (per-protocol population) Strong
Efficacy (genital warts, HPV 6/11) ~99% (per-protocol) Strong

Gardasil® 9 (9-valent) — Pivotal Trial for U.S. Licensure (2014)

Gardasil 9 was evaluated in a single pivotal Phase 3 trial (Protocol V503-001) that compared Gardasil 9 to Gardasil quadrivalent. A total of ~14,215 participants received at least one dose of Gardasil 9 (females aged 16–26) and ~7,100 received Gardasil quadrivalent. Additional immunogenicity bridging studies were conducted in males, younger children (ages 9–15), and older women.

Most Common Adverse Reactions (Pre-Licensure Trials)

Reaction Gardasil 9 (Approx.) Gardasil Quadrivalent (Approx.) Placebo (AAHS-containing) (Approx.)
Injection site pain ~85–92% ~83% ~75–77%
Injection site swelling ~35–45% ~25% ~16%
Injection site erythema ~30–40% ~25% ~18%
Headache ~12–15% ~12–14% ~11%
Fever ≥ 37.8°C (100°F) ~6–10% ~10% ~10%
Fatigue ~10–13% ~10–12% ~10%
Nausea ~4–7% ~4–6% ~4%
Dizziness ~3–5% ~3–4% ~3%
Syncope (fainting) ~0.1% (reported in trials) ~0.1% ~0.1%

Sources: Gardasil 9 and Gardasil prescribing information; FDA clinical review documents. Note: The high rate of injection site pain (>80%) is characteristic of this vaccine. The placebo used contained the same aluminum adjuvant (AAHS), so the incremental reactogenicity attributable to the VLPs specifically is more modest than the absolute rates. Syncope occurred at similar rates across groups; the association is with the injection procedure (vasovagal response) rather than vaccine content.

Key Limitations of Pre-Licensure Trial Data

3. Post-Licensure Safety Data

Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD)

The VSD has conducted active surveillance on HPV vaccine safety since 2006. The population under surveillance includes approximately 9–10 million people annually (~3% of the U.S. population). VSD uses rapid cycle analyses (near-real-time surveillance) and retrospective cohort and self-controlled case series designs.

Sources: Gee et al. (2023); Naleway et al. (2018, 2022); Yih et al. (2016); Klein et al. (VSD annual surveillance).

VAERS (Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System)

VAERS is a passive (spontaneous) reporting system co-managed by the CDC and FDA. VAERS cannot establish causation. HPV vaccine safety data span nearly 20 years. The HPV vaccine has been the subject of substantial public attention, which can influence VAERS reporting patterns through stimulated/heightened reporting.

VAERS Metric (HPV, cumulative U.S. data) Approximate Figures
Total U.S. doses distributed (estimated, Gardasil/Gardasil 9, 2006–2024) >135 million doses in the U.S.; >270 million doses globally
Total VAERS reports received for HPV vaccines ~60,000–70,000 (cumulative)
Reports classified as "serious" (per CFR 600.80 criteria) ~7–10% of total HPV reports
Most commonly reported adverse events Syncope, dizziness, injection site reactions, headache, nausea, fever, fatigue
Notable reporting pattern A cluster of reports describing post-vaccination chronic pain syndromes, autonomic dysfunction (including POTS — postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome), and chronic fatigue has been observed in VAERS and stimulated by advocacy groups. These conditions have been studied in VSD and European registry studies; controlled epidemiological studies have not confirmed a causal association.

⚠ Critical Caveat

VAERS data represent unverified reports of events temporally associated with vaccination. A report to VAERS does not mean the vaccine caused the event. VAERS is designed to generate hypotheses and detect potential safety signals; it cannot calculate incidence rates or establish causality. The HPV vaccine has been the subject of organized advocacy and high-profile media coverage, which can generate stimulated reporting — a phenomenon where publicity about a potential adverse event leads to increased reporting of that event beyond baseline. This makes raw VAERS report counts for HPV particularly unreliable for causal inference.

Major Independent Post-Licensure Reviews

Review / Institution Year(s) Design & Scope Key Finding
Institute of Medicine (IOM) — "Adverse Effects of Vaccines: Evidence and Causality" 2012 Systematic review of >12,000 peer-reviewed articles; evaluated HPV vaccine for multiple adverse events Favors acceptance of causal relationship for anaphylaxis. Favors rejection of causality for autoimmune diseases, GBS, MS, stroke, and VTE. Evidence inadequate for several other outcomes. Noted the evidence base for HPV was limited at the time (~5 years post-licensure).
Cochrane Systematic Review — "HPV Vaccines" (Arbyn et al.) 2018 Meta-analysis of 26 RCTs (N=73,428) plus post-licensure observational studies HPV vaccines effective in preventing cervical precancer in adolescent girls and young women (15–26). No increased risk of serious adverse events, miscarriage, or stillbirth. Noted limitations in assessing very rare adverse events.
WHO Global Advisory Committee on Vaccine Safety (GACVS) 2013–2023, multiple reviews Ongoing review of global safety data from multiple countries and systems No evidence of causal association between HPV vaccination and autoimmune diseases, POTS, CRPS, POI, or chronic fatigue syndrome. Syncope and anaphylaxis are rare adverse events. GACVS has repeatedly affirmed the safety profile.
European Medicines Agency (EMA) — HPV Vaccine Safety Review 2015 Comprehensive review triggered by concerns about CRPS and POTS reports No evidence of causal association between HPV vaccines and CRPS or POTS. Reviewed all available data from clinical trials, post-marketing surveillance, and published literature.
Japan MHLW — HPV Vaccine Safety Review 2013–2022 Review following suspension of proactive recommendation (2013–2021) Japan suspended proactive government recommendation for HPV vaccination in June 2013 following media reports of post-vaccination symptoms. Multiple epidemiological investigations during the suspension, including the Nagoya City study (Suzuki & Hosono, 2018; N=29,846), found no difference in symptom prevalence between vaccinated and unvaccinated girls. Japan resumed proactive recommendation in November 2021.

The Japan HPV Vaccine Suspension (2013–2021)

Japan's experience is a significant case study in vaccine safety signal management. After media reports described girls developing chronic pain, motor impairment, and other symptoms temporally associated with HPV vaccination, Japan's MHLW suspended proactive government recommendation in June 2013. The vaccine remained available and on the national schedule, but without active government endorsement. Key findings from the suspension period:

Japan resumed proactive recommendation in November 2021 after an 8.5-year suspension. Modelling studies published in The Lancet Public Health (Simms et al., 2020) estimate that the suspension may result in thousands of preventable cervical cancer cases and deaths in Japan. This episode is noted because it represents the most significant regulatory action related to HPV vaccine safety in a high-income country and remains frequently cited in discussions of HPV vaccine safety.

Confirmed Safety Signals Identified in Post-Licensure Data

Note: Safety "signals" identified through post-licensure surveillance require further analytical epidemiological studies to confirm or refute causality. Signals may later be determined to be coincidental.

4. Documented Adverse Events — Evidence of Association

▶ Adverse Events with Strong Evidence of Causal Association

Criteria: Consistent epidemiological data from multiple independent studies, supported by mechanistic plausibility, and reviewed by IOM / WHO GACVS or equivalent authoritative body.

▶ Adverse Events with Moderate or Preliminary Evidence

Criteria: Some epidemiological evidence consistent with a signal, but data are limited by sample size, inconsistent findings across studies, or insufficient mechanistic evidence.

▶ Published Evidence Does Not Support a Causal Association

Criteria: Multiple large, well-controlled epidemiological studies have consistently failed to find an association; IOM / GACVS has rejected a causal relationship; or the preponderance of high-quality evidence is against an association.

5. Disease Prevention Benefits

5a. Pre-Vaccine vs. Post-Vaccine Era Data (United States)

Because HPV vaccination was introduced relatively recently (2006), long-term cancer incidence data in vaccinated cohorts are still emerging. However, early indicators of impact are available from multiple countries with established vaccination programs.

Outcome Pre-Vaccine Era Post-Vaccine Era (U.S. and comparable countries)
HPV prevalence (vaccine types 6/11/16/18) in U.S. females aged 14–19 ~11.5% (2003–2006, NHANES) ~1.1% (2013–2016, NHANES) — ~90% reduction in vaccine-type prevalence in sexually experienced females
HPV prevalence (vaccine types) in U.S. females aged 20–24 ~18.5% (2003–2006) ~5.3% (2015–2018) — ~71% reduction
Cervical precancer (CIN2+) incidence — Australia ~20 per 100,000 (pre-vaccination baseline, women <20) ~3 per 100,000 (2014, women <20) — ~85% reduction in the most vaccinated age cohorts
Genital warts incidence — Australia ~5% of sexual health clinic attendees <21 (pre-2007) Near-elimination (<0.5%) in vaccinated age cohorts by 2015
Genital warts — U.S. (private insurance claims, females aged 15–19) ~2.5 per 1,000 person-years (2006) ~0.5 per 1,000 person-years (2014) — ~80% decline
Invasive cervical cancer — Sweden (registry data) Swedish registry study (Lei et al., 2020; N=1.7 million women aged 10–30): cervical cancer incidence rate of vaccinated women was 47 per 100,000 person-years vs. 94 per 100,000 in unvaccinated women (49% reduction). Women vaccinated before age 17 had an 88% lower incidence.
Invasive cervical cancer — England (registry data) Falcaro et al. (2021, The Lancet; N=13.7 million years of follow-up): cervical cancer rates were 87% lower in women vaccinated at age 12–13 compared to unvaccinated; 62% lower at age 14–16; 34% lower at age 16–18.

Sources: NHANES (CDC); Brotherton et al. (Australia); Lei et al. (2020, N Engl J Med); Falcaro et al. (2021, The Lancet).

5b. Current Disease Burden (United States)

5c. Real-World Effectiveness Data

Sources: Palmer et al. (2019) BMJ; Kjaer et al. (2021); CDC National Immunization Survey — Teen (NIS-Teen, 2023).

6. Evidence Summary — Overall Assessment

Quality and Quantity of Safety Data

The HPV vaccine has been in widespread use for nearly 20 years, with >270 million doses administered globally. The evidence base includes:

Areas Where Data Are Robust

Areas Where Data Are Limited or Conflicting

Overall Summary Table

Domain Evidence Grade Key Finding
Prevention of vaccine-type HPV infection Strong ~85–98% reduction in clinical trials and real-world data
Prevention of cervical pre-cancer (CIN2/3+) Strong ~85–98% reduction; confirmed in multiple national programs
Prevention of invasive cervical cancer Strong ~87–88% reduction in women vaccinated at age 12–13
Prevention of genital warts Strong ~80–99% reduction; near-elimination in highly vaccinated cohorts
Syncope (vasovagal) Strong ~0.1–0.3 per 1,000 doses; procedure-related, not vaccine-specific
Anaphylaxis Strong ~1–3 per million doses (yeast sensitivity)
Autoimmune diseases (16 outcomes) No Association VSD study of >1.2M doses: no association for any of 16 outcomes
Multiple Sclerosis / CNS demyelination No Association Multiple large Nordic registry studies; no association
Primary Ovarian Insufficiency (POI) No Association VSD and CDC studies; no elevated risk
POTS Preliminary Large studies trend against association; diagnostic challenges acknowledged
Guillain-Barré Syndrome Limited Inadequate data to confirm or refute; isolated case reports
Pregnancy outcomes No Association Danish registry: >73,000 pregnancies; no increased risk

7. Key References

References are organised by category. Links are provided to the original source where available.

Pre-Licensure Trials / FDA Review Documents

  1. Merck & Co., Inc. Gardasil® 9 (Human Papillomavirus 9-valent Vaccine, Recombinant) — Prescribing Information. merck.com
  2. Joura EA, Giuliano AR, Iversen OE, et al. A 9-valent HPV vaccine against infection and intraepithelial neoplasia in women. N Engl J Med. 2015;372(8):711–723. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa1405044
  3. Garland SM, Hernandez-Avila M, Wheeler CM, et al. Quadrivalent vaccine against human papillomavirus to prevent anogenital diseases. N Engl J Med. 2007;356(19):1928–1943. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa061760
  4. FDA. Clinical Review — Gardasil 9 (BLA 125508), 2014. fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/gardasil-9

Systematic Reviews & Meta-Analyses

  1. Arbyn M, Xu L, Simoens C, Martin-Hirsch PP. Prophylactic vaccination against human papillomaviruses to prevent cervical cancer and its precursors. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2018;5(5):CD009069. DOI: 10.1002/14651858.CD009069.pub3
  2. Drolet M, Bénard E, Pérez N, et al. Population-level impact and herd effects following the introduction of human papillomavirus vaccination programmes: updated systematic review and meta-analysis. The Lancet. 2019;394(10197):497–509. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(19)30298-3

Institute of Medicine / GACVS Reports

  1. Institute of Medicine. Adverse Effects of Vaccines: Evidence and Causality. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press; 2012. nationalacademies.org
  2. WHO Global Advisory Committee on Vaccine Safety (GACVS). Safety of HPV vaccines — multiple statements (2013–2023). who.int
  3. European Medicines Agency. HPV vaccines: EMA confirms evidence does not support that they cause CRPS or POTS. November 2015. ema.europa.eu

Major Post-Licensure Safety Studies

  1. Gee J, Weinbaum C, Sukumaran L, Markowitz LE. Quadrivalent HPV vaccine safety review and safety monitoring for nine-valent HPV vaccine in the United States. Pediatrics. 2023 (comprehensive VSD safety study, >1.2 million doses, 16 autoimmune outcomes).
  2. Naleway AL, Mittendorf KF, Irving SA, et al. Primary ovarian insufficiency and adolescent vaccination. Pediatrics. 2018;142(3):e20180943. DOI: 10.1542/peds.2018-0943
  3. Scheller NM, Svanström H, Pasternak B, et al. Quadrivalent HPV vaccination and risk of multiple sclerosis and other demyelinating diseases of the central nervous system. JAMA. 2015;313(1):54–61. DOI: 10.1001/jama.2014.16946
  4. Hviid A, Thorsen NM, Frisch M, et al. Human papillomavirus vaccination and risk of postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome. Clin Infect Dis. 2021 (Danish registry, >1.3 million females; HR 0.86 for POTS). DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciab855
  5. Feiring B, Laake I, Bakken IJ, et al. HPV vaccination and risk of chronic fatigue syndrome/myalgic encephalomyelitis. Vaccine. 2017;35(33):4203–4210. DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2017.06.040
  6. Scheller NM, Pasternak B, Mølgaard-Nielsen D, et al. Quadrivalent HPV vaccination and the risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. N Engl J Med. 2017;376(13):1223–1233. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa1612296

Real-World Effectiveness & Disease Burden

  1. Lei J, Ploner A, Elfström KM, et al. HPV vaccination and the risk of invasive cervical cancer. N Engl J Med. 2020;383(14):1340–1348. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa1917338
  2. Falcaro M, Castañon A, Ndlela B, et al. The effects of the national HPV vaccination programme in England, UK, on cervical cancer and grade 3 cervical intraepithelial neoplasia incidence: a register-based observational study. The Lancet. 2021;398(10316):2084–2092. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02178-4
  3. Palmer T, Wallace L, Pollock KG, et al. Prevalence of cervical disease at age 20 after immunisation with bivalent HPV vaccine at age 12–13 in Scotland. BMJ. 2019;365:l1161. DOI: 10.1136/bmj.l1161
  4. Suzuki S, Hosono A. No association between HPV vaccine and reported post-vaccination symptoms in Japanese young women: results of the Nagoya study. Papillomavirus Res. 2018;5:96–103. DOI: 10.1016/j.pvr.2018.02.002
  5. Simms KT, Hanley SJB, Smith MA, et al. Impact of HPV vaccine hesitancy on cervical cancer in Japan: a modelling study. Lancet Public Health. 2020;5(4):e223–e234. DOI: 10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30010-4

Official Surveillance and Public Health References

  1. CDC. Epidemiology and Prevention of Vaccine-Preventable Diseases (The Pink Book) — HPV chapter. cdc.gov/pinkbook
  2. CDC. Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD). cdc.gov/vaccine-safety/about/vsd.html
  3. CDC/FDA. Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS). vaers.hhs.gov
  4. CDC. 2025 Child & Adolescent Immunization Schedule. cdc.gov/vaccines/hcp/imz-schedules
  5. CDC. HPV vaccination coverage data — National Immunization Survey — Teen (NIS-Teen). cdc.gov