HPV Vaccine Side Effects (Human Papillomavirus — Database-Reported Reactions)
This page answers “hpv vaccine side effects” with sourced pharmacovigilance data — VAERS, VigiAccess, Lareb, and DAEN category breakdowns. Counts are database reports, not proven vaccine-caused injury rates.
How to read database counts: Pharmacovigilance systems (VAERS, EudraVigilance, Yellow Card, VigiBase, Lareb, DAEN) collect spontaneous, unverified reports. A report is not a confirmed adverse event and does not prove the vaccine caused the outcome. Under-reporting, stimulated reporting, and missing denominators limit rate interpretation. Compare with trials and epidemiological studies on each page before drawing conclusions.
Last updated: July 2026 · Status: Current U.S. licensed product reviewed
ⓘ Methodology Note
This page summarizes published pre-licensure clinical trial data, post-licensure surveillance findings, and peer-reviewed epidemiological studies for HPV vaccines currently and historically licensed in the United States (Gardasil® was licensed in 2006 and withdrawn in 2016; Gardasil® 9, licensed in 2014, is the only HPV vaccine currently distributed in the U.S.; Cervarix® was licensed in 2009 and withdrawn in 2016 but remains available in other countries). Safety and efficacy data are presented without interpretive language that implies the vaccine is "safe" or "unsafe." Each section notes the quality and strength of the underlying evidence. Data are drawn from FDA review documents, published clinical trials, Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD) analyses, VAERS summaries, Institute of Medicine / National Academies consensus reports, Cochrane systematic reviews, WHO GACVS statements, and peer-reviewed literature. Where findings are inconsistent or limited, those limitations are explicitly stated.
1. Basic Information
Diseases Protected Against
Human Papillomavirus (HPV) is the most common sexually transmitted infection globally. There are more than 200 HPV genotypes, of which approximately 40 infect the anogenital tract. Persistent infection with high-risk (oncogenic) HPV types is a necessary cause of cervical cancer and is associated with a proportion of vulvar, vaginal, penile, anal, and oropharyngeal (throat) cancers. Low-risk HPV types (principally types 6 and 11) cause over 90% of anogenital warts and nearly all cases of recurrent respiratory papillomatosis (RRP).
HPV Types
Associated Diseases
Attributable Fraction
Types 16, 18 (high-risk)
Cervical cancer (squamous cell and adenocarcinoma); anal, vulvar, vaginal, penile, and oropharyngeal cancers
~70% of cervical cancers; ~80–90% of HPV-related anal and oropharyngeal cancers
Types 31, 33, 45, 52, 58 (high-risk, additional)
Cervical and other anogenital cancers
~15–20% of cervical cancers (cumulatively); covered by Gardasil 9
Source: IARC Monographs; CDC Pink Book (HPV chapter); Saraiya et al. (2015) J Natl Cancer Inst.
CDC Recommended Schedule (United States, 2025)
Population
Schedule
Notes
Routine (ages 9–14 years)
2-dose series: 0 and 6–12 months
Minimum interval: 5 months between doses. If dose 2 is given <5 months after dose 1, a 3rd dose is needed.
Routine (ages 15–26 years)
3-dose series: 0, 1–2, and 6 months
Recommended minimum intervals: 4 weeks between doses 1 & 2; 12 weeks between doses 2 & 3; 5 months between doses 1 & 3.
Catch-up (ages 27–45 years)
3-dose series: 0, 1–2, and 6 months
Shared clinical decision-making. Not routinely recommended for all adults in this range; potential benefit is lower because most individuals have already been exposed to HPV.
Immunocompromised (including HIV)
3-dose series (including ages 9–14)
3 doses are recommended regardless of age at initiation.
History of sexual abuse or assault
Initiate as early as age 9
ACIP recommends consideration of initiating the HPV vaccine series at age 9 for children with a history of sexual abuse.
Source: CDC ACIP, 2025 Child & Adolescent and Adult Immunization Schedules. Note: The U.S. schedule has evolved — universal vaccination was initially recommended for females (2006), extended to males (2011), and the age-9–14 2-dose schedule was adopted in 2016 following evidence of non-inferior immunogenicity.
Licensed Products (U.S.)
Gardasil® 9 (Merck & Co.) — Licensed December 2014. The only HPV vaccine currently distributed in the United States. Non-infectious recombinant virus-like particle (VLP) vaccine targeting 9 HPV types: 6, 11, 16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52, and 58. Produced in Saccharomyces cerevisiae (yeast). Adjuvanted with amorphous aluminum hydroxyphosphate sulfate (AAHS).
Gardasil® (Merck & Co., quadrivalent) — Licensed June 2006. Targeted HPV types 6, 11, 16, and 18. Voluntarily withdrawn from the U.S. market in 2016 after Gardasil 9 became the predominant product. Safety data from Gardasil remain relevant given the same manufacturing platform and overlapping antigens.
Cervarix® (GlaxoSmithKline, bivalent) — Licensed October 2009. Targeted HPV types 16 and 18. Adjuvanted with AS04 (aluminum hydroxide + monophosphoryl lipid A). Withdrawn from the U.S. market in 2016 due to low demand but remains available in many other countries. Included where safety data are informative.
Documented Adverse Events (HRSA VICP)
The following adverse events are documented by the HRSA Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (VICP) as having a temporal relationship to this vaccine. These are not necessarily confirmed causal relationships, but rather conditions for which claims have been compensated or are presumed caused by the vaccine.
WHO Causality Assessment Methodology
The World Health Organization's Global Advisory Committee on Vaccine Safety (GACVS) uses a 4-level causality classification:
Consistent: Epidemiological studies demonstrate a statistically significant association with temporal specificity and biological plausibility. Replicated across independent populations and study designs.
Indeterminate: Evidence exists but is insufficient to confirm or rule out causality. May be limited by sample size, confounding, or inconsistency across studies.
Inconsistent: Studies have not demonstrated a consistent or convincing association. Evidence against causality outweighs evidence for it.
Unclassifiable: Insufficient data to reach any conclusion. Requires further evidence.
Source: WHO Global Advisory Committee on Vaccine Safety (GACVS), 2021–2025 causality review cycles. See also Institute of Medicine (IOM) Adverse Effects of Vaccines: Evidence and Causality (2012) for pre-COVID vaccine assessments.
Condition
Time Window
Causality Level
HRSA Description
Anaphylaxis
0-1 days
Consistent
WHO Determination (2021, 2023): Consistent for all COVID-19 vaccines. Rate: ~2–5 per million doses. Temporal specificity (onset within minutes, consistent with IgE-mediated). Plausible biological mechanism: immediate hypersensitivity to vaccine excipients (PEG for mRNA, polysorbate for adenoviral). Verified via passive surveillance convergence across multiple national systems (VAERS, EudraVigilance, MHRA Yellow Card, TGA DAEN).
Biological Mechanism: Not thought to be spike protein mediated; likely polyethylene glycol (PEG) in mRNA vaccines triggers IgE-mediated mast cell degranulation Clinical Evidence: (Kuder et al., 2021); Mechanism: (Risma et al., 2021) Spike Protein Evidence: Not tested
Anaphylaxis occurring within 4 hours following vaccination
Syncope (Fainting)
0-1 days
Indeterminate
WHO / IOM Causality Assessment: Evidence reviewed; causal association cannot be confirmed or excluded at current evidence level. Requires further epidemiological and mechanistic investigation. See HRSA VICP Table for program-specific determination.
Biological Mechanism: Multiple plausible biological mechanisms under investigation. Brighton Collaboration AESI monitoring ongoing. Clinical Evidence: See HRSA VICP/CICP program documentation for current determination. Spike Protein Evidence: Evidence reviewed; consult Brighton Collaboration list for mechanistic assessment status.
Syncope occurring within a few minutes to 2 hours after vaccination
Important Notes
HRSA VICP: Conditions listed are documented by HRSA as having temporal relationship to vaccination. Compensation does not imply causation.
Temporal Association: These conditions occurred after vaccination within the specified time window, but other factors may have contributed.
Rarity: Most adverse events are extremely rare. Serious adverse events from vaccines occur in roughly 1-2 per million doses.
Biological Plausibility: Mechanistic evidence is under review and will be integrated in Q3 2026.
Benefit-Risk: This page documents documented injuries. See disease burden pages for context on prevented diseases.
Ingredients (Package Insert)
Structured composition for 1 branded product covered on this page,
taken from FDA-approved package inserts (DailyMed / manufacturer prescribing information).
Lists are per product — formulations differ by manufacturer and presentation.
Click an ingredient name to open its safety-context page when available.
Ingredient lists are sourced from official package inserts for the specific brands named above.
Formulations can change between lots and over time — verify against the current label before any clinical decision.
Presence of a substance does not by itself indicate harm; toxicology is dose-, route-, and context-dependent.
Browse the full ingredient database:
Vaccine Ingredients index.
Causality assessment & potential mechanisms
Conditions below combine WHO-style causality levels with potential biological mechanisms
from the site mechanism catalog
(ae_mechanisms_catalog.json).
HRSA VICP table listing (where shown) indicates a compensable temporal association under U.S. program rules —
not automatic proof of causation for every case. Mechanisms are hypothesis-level pathways with graded evidence.
Pre-existing or newly formed IgE against vaccine antigens or excipients (e.g., gelatin, egg proteins, PEG, polysorbate) triggers mast-cell and basophil degranulation with systemic mediator release.
SyncopeHRSA table
0–1 days
Possible
Evidence: Moderate
Vasovagal (needle) syncope (primary · vasovagal)
Pain, anxiety, or orthostatic stress from injection triggers parasympathetic surge with bradycardia and hypotension, producing transient loss of consciousness—common in adolescents.
SIRVA
0–2 days
Very likely / Probable
Evidence: High
SIRVA — incorrect injection into shoulder structures (primary · procedural)
Needle placement into the subdeltoid/subacromial bursa or joint rather than deltoid muscle causes prolonged local inflammation and restricted range of motion (procedural, not antigen-specific).
Framework: WHO causality + HRSA VICP (where applicable) + AE mechanism catalog.
Last updated: 2026-07-18.
Schema: schemas/vaccine_injury_table.schema.json
· Mechanisms: schemas/ae_mechanism.schema.json.
Not medical or legal advice.
2. Pre-Licensure Clinical Trial Data
Licensure trial design (ICAN / OpenVAERS)
The table below reproduces ICAN’s No Placebo Table rows for U.S. childhood-schedule products relevant to this page — including the control/comparator used in FDA licensing trials (not always saline placebo). OSMF presents this for transparency; it is not an endorsement of ICAN interpretations.
Vaccine
Brand
Manufacturer
Doses (schedule)
Ages injected
Control / comparator
Placebo
Safety review window
HPV
Gardasil 9
Merck
2 or 3
9Y 9 ½Y
Gardasil 4 (see note)
No
1 month in five trials, 6 months in one trial, and 4 years in one trial
Source: OpenVAERS — No Placebo Table · ICAN original PDF
· Attribution: Informed Consent Action Network (ICAN) via OpenVAERS
· Last fetched: 2026-07-16.
For many trials listing '6 months' safety review, ICAN notes review was typically ~30 days post-injection with a phone call at 6 months.
Gardasil was evaluated in four placebo-controlled Phase 2 and Phase 3 trials (FUTURE I, FUTURE II, and two immunogenicity bridging studies). The combined safety population included approximately ~21,500 participants who received at least one dose of Gardasil (females aged 9–45; males aged 9–26). ~13,700 received Gardasil in the placebo-controlled efficacy populations. The pivotal trials used an aluminum-adjuvant-containing placebo (AAHS) rather than saline. This was intended to preserve blinding given the vaccine's high reactogenicity, but the FDA noted that this design choice may reduce the ability to detect adjuvant-attributable adverse events.
Median ~3–4 years; subset followed for up to 14 years in Nordic extension studies
Strong
Efficacy (cervical CIN2/3+ caused by HPV 16/18)
~98% (per-protocol population)
Strong
Efficacy (genital warts, HPV 6/11)
~99% (per-protocol)
Strong
Gardasil® 9 (9-valent) — Pivotal Trial for U.S. Licensure (2014)
Gardasil 9 was evaluated in a single pivotal Phase 3 trial (Protocol V503-001) that compared Gardasil 9 to Gardasil quadrivalent. A total of ~14,215 participants received at least one dose of Gardasil 9 (females aged 16–26) and ~7,100 received Gardasil quadrivalent. Additional immunogenicity bridging studies were conducted in males, younger children (ages 9–15), and older women.
Total Gardasil 9 recipients in safety population: ~15,873 across all clinical trials (including bridging studies); primary efficacy trial: ~14,215 females aged 16–26
All trials combined (pre-licensure): >31,000 participants received any HPV vaccine across the Gardasil/Gardasil 9 development program
Safety follow-up: Solicited AEs for 7–15 days; unsolicited AEs for 1 month; SAEs and deaths monitored for the entire study period (~4 years); pregnancy outcomes collected from pregnancies occurring during the trial
Efficacy for HPV 31/33/45/52/58-related disease: ~96.7% reduction in CIN2/3+, AIS, or cervical cancer compared to Gardasil quadrivalent
Immunogenicity (9–15-year-olds): Anti-HPV GMTs were non-inferior (and higher) compared to those in the 16–26-year-old efficacy population, supporting immunobridging for the younger age group indication
Most Common Adverse Reactions (Pre-Licensure Trials)
Reaction
Gardasil 9 (Approx.)
Gardasil Quadrivalent (Approx.)
Placebo (AAHS-containing) (Approx.)
Injection site pain
~85–92%
~83%
~75–77%
Injection site swelling
~35–45%
~25%
~16%
Injection site erythema
~30–40%
~25%
~18%
Headache
~12–15%
~12–14%
~11%
Fever ≥ 37.8°C (100°F)
~6–10%
~10%
~10%
Fatigue
~10–13%
~10–12%
~10%
Nausea
~4–7%
~4–6%
~4%
Dizziness
~3–5%
~3–4%
~3%
Syncope (fainting)
~0.1% (reported in trials)
~0.1%
~0.1%
Sources: Gardasil 9 and Gardasil prescribing information; FDA clinical review documents. Note: The high rate of injection site pain (>80%) is characteristic of this vaccine. The placebo used contained the same aluminum adjuvant (AAHS), so the incremental reactogenicity attributable to the VLPs specifically is more modest than the absolute rates. Syncope occurred at similar rates across groups; the association is with the injection procedure (vasovagal response) rather than vaccine content.
Key Limitations of Pre-Licensure Trial Data
Placebo composition: Pivotal trials used an aluminum-adjuvant-containing placebo rather than saline. The FDA noted that this may reduce the ability to detect adjuvant-attributable safety signals, as both groups received the same adjuvant.
Age group representation: The large Phase 3 efficacy trial was conducted in females aged 16–26. Safety and immunogenicity in ages 9–15 were established through smaller bridging studies (~2,500 Gardasil 9 recipients) with limited duration of safety follow-up.
Exclusion criteria: Trials excluded pregnant individuals, immunocompromised persons, and those with significant chronic medical conditions. Pregnancy outcomes data derive from incidental pregnancies during the trial (~1,000–2,000 pregnancies per product).
Rare adverse events: Despite a large pre-licensure database (>31,000 participants), trials were not powered to detect rare autoimmune or neurological events (<1 per 10,000 doses). These outcomes have been the focus of post-licensure surveillance.
Male efficacy data: Initial Gardasil 9 licensure in males was based on immunobridging rather than direct efficacy data. Gardasil quadrivalent efficacy data in males (for genital warts and anal intraepithelial neoplasia) combined with Gardasil 9 immunogenicity data supported the male indication.
Limited long-term safety follow-up: While Nordic extension studies provided up to 14 years of follow-up for Gardasil, the primary safety analyses were based on ~3–4 years. Long-term autoimmune outcomes with longer latency would not be detected in the pre-licensure data.
3. Post-Licensure Safety Data
Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD)
The VSD has conducted active surveillance on HPV vaccine safety since 2006. The population under surveillance includes approximately 9–10 million people annually (~3% of the U.S. population). VSD uses rapid cycle analyses (near-real-time surveillance) and retrospective cohort and self-controlled case series designs.
Key VSD findings for HPV vaccine:
Syncope (fainting): Consistently identified at an elevated rate in adolescents post-HPV vaccination. This is a vasovagal response to injection (not vaccine-specific). ACIP recommends 15-minute post-vaccination observation. Rates are comparable to other adolescent vaccines (MCV4, Tdap).
Anaphylaxis: Estimated at ~1–3 per million doses, consistent with other vaccines.
Autoimmune conditions: A comprehensive VSD study by Gee et al. (2023) covering >1.2 million HPV vaccine doses evaluated 16 pre-specified autoimmune outcomes and found no statistically significant increased risk for any of them, including rheumatoid arthritis, SLE, type 1 diabetes, thyroiditis, MS, optic neuritis, ITP, and GBS.
Venous Thromboembolism (VTE): An initial VSD signal (Yih et al., 2016) was evaluated in a larger subsequent study (Naleway et al., 2022; >650,000 doses) using both self-controlled risk-interval and historical comparison methods. The larger study found no elevated VTE risk. The initial signal was not confirmed.
Primary Ovarian Insufficiency (POI): A VSD study (Naleway et al., 2018; ~200,000 females) found 1 confirmed POI case among 58,781 vaccinated females vs. 3 cases among 140,328 unvaccinated females. No elevated risk (RR 0.8; 95% CI 0.04–7.8). A subsequent CDC-funded study (2021) also found no association.
Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS): VSD analyses have not identified a statistically significant increased risk.
Sources: Gee et al. (2023); Naleway et al. (2018, 2022); Yih et al. (2016); Klein et al. (VSD annual surveillance).
VAERS (Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System)
VAERS is a passive (spontaneous) reporting system co-managed by the CDC and FDA. VAERS cannot establish causation. HPV vaccine safety data span nearly 20 years. The HPV vaccine has been the subject of substantial public attention, which can influence VAERS reporting patterns through stimulated/heightened reporting.
VAERS Metric (HPV, cumulative U.S. data)
Approximate Figures
Total U.S. doses distributed (estimated, Gardasil/Gardasil 9, 2006–2024)
>135 million doses in the U.S.; >270 million doses globally
Total VAERS reports received for HPV vaccines
~60,000–70,000 (cumulative)
Reports classified as "serious" (per CFR 600.80 criteria)
~7–10% of total HPV reports
Most commonly reported adverse events
Syncope, dizziness, injection site reactions, headache, nausea, fever, fatigue
Notable reporting pattern
A cluster of reports describing post-vaccination chronic pain syndromes, autonomic dysfunction (including POTS — postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome), and chronic fatigue has been observed in VAERS and stimulated by advocacy groups. These conditions have been studied in VSD and European registry studies; controlled epidemiological studies have not confirmed a causal association.
⚠ Critical Caveat
VAERS data represent unverified reports of events temporally associated with vaccination. A report to VAERS does not mean the vaccine caused the event. VAERS is designed to generate hypotheses and detect potential safety signals; it cannot calculate incidence rates or establish causality. The HPV vaccine has been the subject of organized advocacy and high-profile media coverage, which can generate stimulated reporting — a phenomenon where publicity about a potential adverse event leads to increased reporting of that event beyond baseline. This makes raw VAERS report counts for HPV particularly unreliable for causal inference.
Major Independent Post-Licensure Reviews
Review / Institution
Year(s)
Design & Scope
Key Finding
Institute of Medicine (IOM) — "Adverse Effects of Vaccines: Evidence and Causality"
2012
Systematic review of >12,000 peer-reviewed articles; evaluated HPV vaccine for multiple adverse events
Favors acceptance of causal relationship for anaphylaxis. Favors rejection of causality for autoimmune diseases, GBS, MS, stroke, and VTE. Evidence inadequate for several other outcomes. Noted the evidence base for HPV was limited at the time (~5 years post-licensure).
Cochrane Systematic Review — "HPV Vaccines" (Arbyn et al.)
2018
Meta-analysis of 26 RCTs (N=73,428) plus post-licensure observational studies
HPV vaccines effective in preventing cervical precancer in adolescent girls and young women (15–26). No increased risk of serious adverse events, miscarriage, or stillbirth. Noted limitations in assessing very rare adverse events.
WHO Global Advisory Committee on Vaccine Safety (GACVS)
2013–2023, multiple reviews
Ongoing review of global safety data from multiple countries and systems
No evidence of causal association between HPV vaccination and autoimmune diseases, POTS, CRPS, POI, or chronic fatigue syndrome. Syncope and anaphylaxis are rare adverse events. GACVS has repeatedly affirmed the safety profile.
European Medicines Agency (EMA) — HPV Vaccine Safety Review
2015
Comprehensive review triggered by concerns about CRPS and POTS reports
No evidence of causal association between HPV vaccines and CRPS or POTS. Reviewed all available data from clinical trials, post-marketing surveillance, and published literature.
Japan MHLW — HPV Vaccine Safety Review
2013–2022
Review following suspension of proactive recommendation (2013–2021)
Japan suspended proactive government recommendation for HPV vaccination in June 2013 following media reports of post-vaccination symptoms. Multiple epidemiological investigations during the suspension, including the Nagoya City study (Suzuki & Hosono, 2018; N=29,846), found no difference in symptom prevalence between vaccinated and unvaccinated girls. Japan resumed proactive recommendation in November 2021.
The Japan HPV Vaccine Suspension (2013–2021)
Japan's experience is a significant case study in vaccine safety signal management. After media reports described girls developing chronic pain, motor impairment, and other symptoms temporally associated with HPV vaccination, Japan's MHLW suspended proactive government recommendation in June 2013. The vaccine remained available and on the national schedule, but without active government endorsement. Key findings from the suspension period:
Nagoya City study (Suzuki & Hosono, 2018): Survey of N=29,846 girls aged 12–23. Among 24 pre-specified symptoms evaluated (chronic fatigue, headache, joint pain, motor impairment, etc.), no statistically significant difference in prevalence was found between vaccinated and unvaccinated girls.
MHLW Expert Committee analyses (2015–2021): National health insurance claims data and hospital-based surveys did not identify a consistent or replicated pattern of symptoms attributable to HPV vaccination.
NIID surveillance: No evidence of an increase in the incidence of the described symptom constellation above expected background rates in adolescent females.
Japan resumed proactive recommendation in November 2021 after an 8.5-year suspension. Modelling studies published in The Lancet Public Health (Simms et al., 2020) estimate that the suspension may result in thousands of preventable cervical cancer cases and deaths in Japan. This episode is noted because it represents the most significant regulatory action related to HPV vaccine safety in a high-income country and remains frequently cited in discussions of HPV vaccine safety.
Confirmed Safety Signals Identified in Post-Licensure Data
Syncope (vasovagal episodes): Elevated rate in adolescents post-vaccination. Vasovagal response to injection procedure, not vaccine-specific. ACIP recommends 15-minute observation.
Anaphylaxis: ~1–3 per million doses. Consistent with other vaccines.
Injection site reactions (higher with Gardasil 9 vs. quadrivalent): Gardasil 9 has a higher antigen and adjuvant load and produces higher rates of local reactions. Clinical trial data consistently show this difference.
Note: Safety "signals" identified through post-licensure surveillance require further analytical epidemiological studies to confirm or refute causality. Signals may later be determined to be coincidental.
VAERS Reporting Data — Halma & Varon (2025), DARE-SAFE
The DARE-SAFE paper (Halma & Varon, Pharmacoepidemiology 2025, CC BY 4.0) analyzed VAERS reports for vaccines administered in the United States from 2006–2022. The following data are extracted from Table 1 of that paper for this vaccine (HPV (all HPV vaccine products combined; Gardasil/Gardasil 9/Cervarix)):
Metric
Value
U.S. doses administered (2006–2022)
158,878,541
Total VAERS AE reports
42,464
AE reporting rate (per 100,000 doses)
26.7
Total death reports
109
Death reporting rate (per 100,000 doses)
0.0686
AE-to-Death ratio
390:1
Source: Halma, M.; Varon, J. DARE-SAFE. Pharmacoepidemiology. 2025. DOI: 10.3390/pharma4020007. CC BY 4.0. Data from Table 1.
📚 Important Interpretive Caveats (from the paper itself)
Reporting rate ≠ incidence rate. VAERS is a passive, unverified system. A report means someone submitted a claim of temporal association, not a confirmed causal event. The paper is explicit that causality cannot be inferred from these numbers alone.
Reporting behavior is not uniform. More serious, unusual, or media-salient events are reported at much higher rates than mild ones. Products receiving more public, media, legal, and clinical attention (particularly COVID-19 vaccines, which also benefited from V-safe active-surveillance prompts and CICP compensation pathways) generate more reports per dose regardless of true risk.
Age and comorbidity confounding is not adjusted. COVID-19 vaccines were disproportionately administered to elderly and comorbid populations (nursing homes, 65+, high-risk groups in early 2021) with much higher background all-cause mortality than the general child/working-age population. Some fraction of temporally-associated deaths would occur regardless of vaccination, and the paper does not perform a background-rate comparison.
Stimulated reporting is a known, documented phenomenon. Media coverage, plaintiff attorney solicitation, and advocacy campaigns — all independently inflate VAERS reporting propensity. The paper cites this literature but does not correct for it.
Small-denominator rows are unreliable. Rates computed from small denominators (e.g., monovalent measles, DT, mumps, rubella) have enormous statistical uncertainty and should not be compared to vaccines with hundreds of millions of administered doses without noting the wide confidence intervals.
Source: Halma, M.; Varon, J. DARE-SAFE: Denominator-Adjusted Rate Estimates of Substance Adverse Events Frequency Evaluation in Pharmaceuticals and Vaccines. Pharmacoepidemiology. 2025, 4, 7. DOI: 10.3390/pharma4020007. CC BY 4.0.
Passive Surveillance: AE Type Breakdown (Multi-System)
Side-by-side view of U.S. VAERS, Health Canada Canada Vigilance, Japan JADER (PMDA), EU EudraVigilance, and live-scraped international systems via SurVigilance (VigiAccess, Lareb, DAEN, DMA, Medsafe). SurVigilance panels show MedDRA PT mention totals (not individual-case counts). Category assignment uses keyword matching — approximate, not official SOC coding. VAERS ZIP CAPTCHA downloads use this site’s vaers_pipeline.py; FAERS is bulk quarterly ZIP via SurVigilance (not product search).
VAERS (United States)
Canada Vigilance (Canada)
JADER (PMDA, Japan)
EudraVigilance (EU)
16,427 individual cases · adrreports.eu DAP export (up to 28/06/2026)
Reaction SOC breakdown not included in this workbook export.
No DAEN (Australia) data yet — run python scrape_survigilance_one.py daen <vaccine-id> or python survigilance_pipeline.py --system daen (SurVigilance + direct scrapers: GitHub).
DMA (Denmark)
Denmark DMA interactive ADR search is currently offline (Danish Medicines Agency IT transition; public overviews frozen at 12 Mar 2024). Live product PT tables cannot be retrieved until DKMA restores the search. See DKMA notice. Denmark continues to report into EU EudraVigilance (panel above).
Medsafe (New Zealand)
VAERS (U.S., 2006–2024): 168,162 symptom mentions (26.46/100k doses). Largest share: Other / Unclassified (36%), Neurological (16%), General / Systemic (non-local) (11%). Canada Vigilance (CV Online extract): 1,482 reaction mentions in 361 unique reports (79.8% serious (288 of 361 reports)). Largest share: Neurological (19%), General / Systemic (non-local) (12%), Gastrointestinal (7%). JADER (PMDA public CSV extract): 13,421 reaction mentions in 3,198 unique reports (1.1% serious (35 of 3,198 reports)). Largest share: Neurological (31%), Other / Unclassified (30%), General / Systemic (non-local) (12%). EudraVigilance (EU DAP export): 16,427 individual cases (up to 28/06/2026). Reaction SOC categories were not exported in the local DAP workbooks — case count only. VigiAccess (WHO): 40,998 reaction-term mentions · search: HPV. Largest share: Dermatological (non-injection-site) (39%), Allergic / Anaphylactic (17%), Gastrointestinal (11%). Lareb (Netherlands): 10,204 reaction-term mentions · search: HPV vaccine. Largest share: General / Systemic (non-local) (30%), Musculoskeletal (15%), Gastrointestinal (14%). Medsafe (New Zealand): 2,560 reaction-term mentions · search: HPV. Largest share: Gastrointestinal (32%), Injection-site / Local reaction (26%), General / Systemic (non-local) (25%). Cross-database note: All systems are passive and unverified; reporting rates are not directly comparable across countries (different populations, reporting incentives, and lack of dose denominators for Canada/Japan/EU). top VAERS: Other / Unclassified; top Canada Vigilance: Neurological; top JADER: Neurological. SurVigilance note: VigiAccess, Lareb, DAEN, DMA, and Medsafe counts are live-scraped MedDRA PT mention totals (not deduplicated individual cases). Data via SurVigilance (GPL-3.0; pip install SurVigilance). Category assignment uses keyword matching on reported reaction terms — approximate and exploratory. Neither database establishes causality.
Pharmacovigilance Lot Signal Detection — Hypothesis-Generating Only
Multi-system context below. VAERS (U.S.) supports lot-level volume z-scores and seriousness flags by product and lot (2006–2024). Each lot links to a summary with report count, seriousness %, adverse-event pie chart, U.S. state map, and timeline. A signal flag means a statistical threshold was exceeded — not that a lot is unsafe. Full dashboard →
VAERS flags:VOL high report volume (z ≥ 3) ·
BURST clustered in <90 days ·
SER serious reports >50%.
Lot numbers are voluntary/incomplete in VAERS. Location data is U.S. state only (no postal codes in the public extract).
VAERS (United States) — all lots by product
22,099 reports with usable lot across 825 lots · 124 flagged
Loading lot tables…
Other Pharmacovigilance Systems
Lot-level analysis is only possible where reporters supply batch/lot numbers in the public extract. Canada Vigilance, JADER (PMDA, Japan), and most other national systems publish product-level spontaneous reports without lot fields.
Canada Vigilance (Health Canada)
361 unique reports · 1,482 reaction mentions · 79.8% serious (288 of 361 reports). Top categories: Neurological (19%), General / Systemic (non-local) (12%), Gastrointestinal (7%).
Canada Vigilance spontaneous reports are unverified temporal associations. The public CV Online data extract does not include lot or batch numbers, so lot-level signal detection is not possible for this system — only product-level reaction patterns are shown here. No Canadian dose denominators are available. Extract 2026-03-31.
3,198 unique reports · 13,421 reaction mentions · 1.1% serious (35 of 3,198 reports). Top categories: Neurological (31%), Other / Unclassified (30%), General / Systemic (non-local) (12%).
JADER (Japanese Adverse Drug Event Report database) spontaneous reports are unverified temporal associations; PMDA has not assessed causality per case. The public CSV extract does not include lot or batch numbers, so lot-level signal detection is not possible — only product-level reaction patterns are shown here. Reaction terms in source data use MedDRA/J Preferred Terms. JADER CSV extract pmdacasereport202606 (2026-06). JADER reference (PDF)
16,427 individual cases (up to 28/06/2026) · HUMAN PAPILLOMAVIRUS VACCINE [TYPES 6, 11, 16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52, 58] (RECOMBINANT, ADSORBED). Reaction SOC breakdown not included in this DAP export.
EudraVigilance spontaneous reports are unverified temporal associations. The local EudraVigilance DAP workbooks provide individual-case counts from adrreports.eu; exported Reaction SOC filters were not set, so reaction-category charts are unavailable from this extract. Lot/batch numbers are not in public line listings.
Active Pharmacovigilance (Defined-Population Surveillance)
Curated findings for HPV vaccine (Gardasil 9) from active systems (not VAERS). Page inventory last reviewed: 2026-07-10.
ⓘ Active vs. passive — why this pane is separate
The VAERS / multi-system charts above are passive surveillance: spontaneous, unverified reports without a fixed denominator.
Active surveillance starts from a defined, enumerated population (EHR/claims or structured post-vaccination surveys), applies pre-specified statistical tests, and asks whether an outcome occurs
more often than expected in a risk window versus a comparison window or group.
These are not two flavors of the same evidence — active findings are the harder tier that can confirm, refute, or leave under investigation a signal first hinted in passive data.
Do not add VAERS report counts to active incidence rates.
○ No signal detected◐ Signal under investigation◑ Investigated — not confirmed● Signal confirmed (true association)– Not currently under active surveillance
CDC Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD)
Outcome: Pre-specified serious outcomes (including autoimmune and neurological endpoints used in RCA protocols)
Tier 2○ No signal detected
VSD rapid-cycle and related active studies have provided ongoing safety monitoring for HPV vaccines. Large-scale evaluations have not confirmed causal associations for hypothesized autoimmune clusters that generated public concern; syncope remains a known procedural risk addressed by observation-after-vaccination guidance.
Population
Adolescents and young adults receiving HPV vaccine at VSD sites
Update cadence: Tier 1: check AusVaxSafety monthly when public pages update. Tier 2/3: quarterly review around ACIP meetings and PubMed/MMWR; set lastReviewed per record.
Source tiers: Tier 1 = public near-real-time dashboards (e.g. AusVaxSafety);
Tier 2 = VSD / Sentinel / PRAC-type findings released via ACIP slides, MMWR, or papers (no public VSD raw dashboard);
Tier 3 = regulator label/safety communications.
Detecting a signal and later classifying it as not confirmed is normal system behavior — not an anomaly to hide or amplify.
4. Documented Adverse Events — Evidence of Association
Rank-aggregated VAERS signal detection (rankv)
The table below lists vaccine–event pairs that were detected as disproportionality signals by all four base methods used in rankv (GPS, PRR, ROR, BCPNN) on multi-decade VAERS data, then ordered by rank aggregation (Borda average rank; related to the Spearman/GA top-list approach in the rankv paper).
Data: ~30 years of public VAERS (rankv processed tables).
Origin: precisionFDA “Gaining New Insights by Detecting Adverse Event Anomalies” challenge solution.
Caveat: Disproportionality signals are statistical associations in spontaneous reports. They do not establish causality, incidence, or product defect. Many top pairs reflect administration/product-use coding rather than clinical injury.
▶ Adverse Events with Strong Evidence of Causal Association
Criteria: Consistent epidemiological data from multiple independent studies, supported by mechanistic plausibility, and reviewed by IOM / WHO GACVS or equivalent authoritative body.
Injection site reactions (pain, swelling, erythema): Occurring at high rates (~80–90% for pain, ~30–45% for swelling). Gardasil 9 produces higher rates than Gardasil quadrivalent, attributable to higher antigen/adjuvant load. Generally mild-to-moderate and self-limited (1–5 days). Strong
Syncope (vasovagal episodes): Occurs in adolescents at ~0.1–0.3 per 1,000 doses. Attributable to injection procedure (not vaccine antigen-specific). Comparable to rates with other adolescent vaccines. Risk mitigated by seated administration and 15-minute observation. Strong
Anaphylaxis: Estimated at ~1–3 per million doses. Contraindication for individuals with known severe allergic reaction to yeast (S. cerevisiae) or a prior dose. Strong
Systemic reactions (headache, fatigue, myalgia, fever, nausea, dizziness): Reported at rates slightly above placebo in clinical trials. Generally mild-to-moderate and self-limited (1–3 days). Strong
▶ Adverse Events with Moderate or Preliminary Evidence
Criteria: Some epidemiological evidence consistent with a signal, but data are limited by sample size, inconsistent findings across studies, or insufficient mechanistic evidence.
Venous Thromboembolism (VTE): Initial VSD signal (Yih et al., 2016) was not confirmed in a larger subsequent analysis (Naleway et al., 2022; >650,000 doses). IOM (2012) favored rejection of causality. Evidence trends against association, but active surveillance continues given the initial signal. Moderate (against association)
Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS): Isolated case reports; VSD rapid cycle analyses have not identified statistically significant increased risk. IOM (2012) deemed evidence inadequate to accept or reject causality. Limited
Postural Orthostatic Tachycardia Syndrome (POTS): A 2017 Danish study reported a possible association, but methodological critiques (diagnostic verification, confounding) limit interpretation. A larger Danish study (Hviid et al., 2021; >1.3 million females) using validated hospital diagnoses found no association (HR 0.86; 95% CI 0.54–1.36). EMA (2015) and WHO GACVS have not confirmed a causal association. Preliminary (trending against association)
Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS): Case reports and advocacy campaigns describe CRPS after HPV vaccination. EMA (2015) found no evidence of a causal relationship. VSD data do not show a signal. Limited
▶ Published Evidence Does Not Support a Causal Association
Criteria: Multiple large, well-controlled epidemiological studies have consistently failed to find an association; IOM / GACVS has rejected a causal relationship; or the preponderance of high-quality evidence is against an association.
Autoimmune diseases collectively: The comprehensive VSD study by Gee et al. (2023; >1.2 million HPV vaccine doses) evaluated 16 pre-specified autoimmune outcomes (including RA, SLE, ITP, AIHA, type 1 diabetes, thyroiditis, MS, optic neuritis) and found no statistically significant increased risk for any outcome. WHO GACVS has affirmed the absence of an autoimmune safety signal. No Association
Multiple Sclerosis (MS) and CNS demyelinating disorders: A combined Danish/Swedish registry study (Scheller et al., 2015; N ~ 4 million females) found no increased risk of MS (RR 0.90; 95% CI 0.70–1.15). Multiple other large studies are consistent. No Association
Primary Ovarian Insufficiency (POI): VSD data (Naleway et al., 2018) and a subsequent CDC-funded study found no association. No Association
Chronic Fatigue Syndrome / ME: A Norwegian registry study (Feiring et al., 2017; >1.7 million girls) found no increased risk of CFS/ME following HPV vaccination. No Association
Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus: Multiple large cohort and registry-based studies have not identified an association. No Association
Pregnancy outcomes (miscarriage, stillbirth, congenital anomalies): Multiple studies, including a large Danish registry study (Scheller et al., 2017; >73,000 pregnancies), have not found increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes in women vaccinated prior to or during pregnancy (though HPV vaccine is not recommended during pregnancy). No Association
5. Disease Prevention Benefits
5a. Pre-Vaccine vs. Post-Vaccine Era Data (United States)
Because HPV vaccination was introduced relatively recently (2006), long-term cancer incidence data in vaccinated cohorts are still emerging. However, early indicators of impact are available from multiple countries with established vaccination programs.
Outcome
Pre-Vaccine Era
Post-Vaccine Era (U.S. and comparable countries)
HPV prevalence (vaccine types 6/11/16/18) in U.S. females aged 14–19
~11.5% (2003–2006, NHANES)
~1.1% (2013–2016, NHANES) — ~90% reduction in vaccine-type prevalence in sexually experienced females
HPV prevalence (vaccine types) in U.S. females aged 20–24
~18.5% (2003–2006)
~5.3% (2015–2018) — ~71% reduction
Cervical precancer (CIN2+) incidence — Australia
~20 per 100,000 (pre-vaccination baseline, women <20)
~3 per 100,000 (2014, women <20) — ~85% reduction in the most vaccinated age cohorts
Genital warts incidence — Australia
~5% of sexual health clinic attendees <21 (pre-2007)
Near-elimination (<0.5%) in vaccinated age cohorts by 2015
Genital warts — U.S. (private insurance claims, females aged 15–19)
~2.5 per 1,000 person-years (2006)
~0.5 per 1,000 person-years (2014) — ~80% decline
Invasive cervical cancer — Sweden (registry data)
—
Swedish registry study (Lei et al., 2020; N=1.7 million women aged 10–30): cervical cancer incidence rate of vaccinated women was 47 per 100,000 person-years vs. 94 per 100,000 in unvaccinated women (49% reduction). Women vaccinated before age 17 had an 88% lower incidence.
Invasive cervical cancer — England (registry data)
—
Falcaro et al. (2021, The Lancet; N=13.7 million years of follow-up): cervical cancer rates were 87% lower in women vaccinated at age 12–13 compared to unvaccinated; 62% lower at age 14–16; 34% lower at age 16–18.
Sources: NHANES (CDC); Brotherton et al. (Australia); Lei et al. (2020, N Engl J Med); Falcaro et al. (2021, The Lancet).
5b. Current Disease Burden (United States)
HPV infections: An estimated 42 million persons in the U.S. are currently infected with HPV, and approximately 13 million persons acquire a new HPV infection annually. Most infections are asymptomatic and cleared spontaneously by the immune system within 1–2 years.
Cervical cancer: Approximately 13,800 new cases of invasive cervical cancer and ~4,300 deaths annually in the U.S. (2024 estimates). Cervical cancer incidence has declined substantially in the U.S. since the introduction of Pap screening (1950s), but the decline attributable to vaccination specifically is expected to accelerate as vaccinated cohorts age.
Other HPV-related cancers: HPV causes an estimated 37,000 cancers annually in the U.S. across all anatomic sites, including ~12,000 oropharyngeal cancers (now the leading HPV-related cancer in the U.S., predominantly in men), ~7,000 anal cancers, and smaller numbers of vulvar, vaginal, and penile cancers.
Genital warts: Incidence has declined substantially in young women and men in countries with established vaccination programs. In the U.S., declines have been observed in private insurance claims data and STI clinic surveillance.
RRP (Recurrent Respiratory Papillomatosis): Rare condition (~0.5–2 per 100,000 in children; lower in adults). Australian and U.S. data suggest declining incidence in children born to vaccinated mothers (juvenile-onset RRP), consistent with reduced maternal HPV 6/11 prevalence.
5c. Real-World Effectiveness Data
Scotland (Palmer et al., 2019): Routine vaccination of girls aged 12–13 with the bivalent (Cervarix) vaccine achieved an 89% reduction in CIN3+ at age 20 compared to unvaccinated women (2019, BMJ). This was the first demonstration of a near-complete elimination of cervical pre-cancer in a routinely vaccinated population.
Denmark (Kjaer et al., 2021): Nationwide cohort study evaluating quadrivalent HPV vaccine effectiveness. Vaccination before age 17 was associated with an 86% reduction in high-grade cervical lesions compared to unvaccinated women.
Herd protection: Multiple countries (Australia, Denmark, U.S.) have documented substantial declines in genital warts and vaccine-type HPV prevalence in unvaccinated males following female-only vaccination programs, demonstrating herd effects.
U.S. HPV vaccination coverage (2023): Approximately 76% of adolescents aged 13–17 years have received at least one dose of HPV vaccine, and ~62% are up-to-date with the recommended series. Coverage remains below the Healthy People 2030 goal of 80% series completion.
Sources: Palmer et al. (2019) BMJ; Kjaer et al. (2021); CDC National Immunization Survey — Teen (NIS-Teen, 2023).
Disease Burden Over Time
Reported U.S. disease burden by year. The dashed vertical line marks vaccine introduction. Hover or tap data points for values; use arrow keys when a chart has focus.
ⓘ About these charts: These are accessible SVG line charts with keyboard navigation, hover tooltips, and an underlying data table (expand below). The dashed vertical line marks the year of vaccine introduction. Reported cases undercount true incidence; case definitions, reporting practices, and diagnostic methods have changed over time. See Section 5 for additional context and pre-vs-post era comparisons.
7. International Surveillance & Global Data
Quick links to public pharmacovigilance databases and trial registries relevant to HPV Vaccine. Reporting counts do not establish causality.
Note: Spontaneous reports are unverified observations. Compare with epidemiological studies in Sections 3–6 before drawing conclusions.
8. Curated Adverse Event Literature
Curated peer-reviewed literature linking specific adverse events to HPV Vaccine. Each entry is a case report, case series, or related safety publication identified via PubMed. Expand Search PubMed for additional literature below to run custom queries.
Disclaimer: Published reports describe observations and associations; they do not establish population incidence or causality.
9. Key References
References are organised by category. Links are provided to the original source where available.
Joura EA, Giuliano AR, Iversen OE, et al. A 9-valent HPV vaccine against infection and intraepithelial neoplasia in women. N Engl J Med. 2015;372(8):711–723. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa1405044
Garland SM, Hernandez-Avila M, Wheeler CM, et al. Quadrivalent vaccine against human papillomavirus to prevent anogenital diseases. N Engl J Med. 2007;356(19):1928–1943. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa061760
Arbyn M, Xu L, Simoens C, Martin-Hirsch PP. Prophylactic vaccination against human papillomaviruses to prevent cervical cancer and its precursors. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2018;5(5):CD009069. DOI: 10.1002/14651858.CD009069.pub3
Drolet M, Bénard E, Pérez N, et al. Population-level impact and herd effects following the introduction of human papillomavirus vaccination programmes: updated systematic review and meta-analysis. The Lancet. 2019;394(10197):497–509. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(19)30298-3
Institute of Medicine / GACVS Reports
Institute of Medicine. Adverse Effects of Vaccines: Evidence and Causality. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press; 2012. nationalacademies.org
WHO Global Advisory Committee on Vaccine Safety (GACVS). Safety of HPV vaccines — multiple statements (2013–2023). who.int
European Medicines Agency. HPV vaccines: EMA confirms evidence does not support that they cause CRPS or POTS. November 2015. ema.europa.eu
Major Post-Licensure Safety Studies
Gee J, Weinbaum C, Sukumaran L, Markowitz LE. Quadrivalent HPV vaccine safety review and safety monitoring for nine-valent HPV vaccine in the United States. Pediatrics. 2023 (comprehensive VSD safety study, >1.2 million doses, 16 autoimmune outcomes).
Naleway AL, Mittendorf KF, Irving SA, et al. Primary ovarian insufficiency and adolescent vaccination. Pediatrics. 2018;142(3):e20180943. DOI: 10.1542/peds.2018-0943
Scheller NM, Svanström H, Pasternak B, et al. Quadrivalent HPV vaccination and risk of multiple sclerosis and other demyelinating diseases of the central nervous system. JAMA. 2015;313(1):54–61. DOI: 10.1001/jama.2014.16946
Hviid A, Thorsen NM, Frisch M, et al. Human papillomavirus vaccination and risk of postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome. Clin Infect Dis. 2021 (Danish registry, >1.3 million females; HR 0.86 for POTS). DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciab855
Feiring B, Laake I, Bakken IJ, et al. HPV vaccination and risk of chronic fatigue syndrome/myalgic encephalomyelitis. Vaccine. 2017;35(33):4203–4210. DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2017.06.040
Scheller NM, Pasternak B, Mølgaard-Nielsen D, et al. Quadrivalent HPV vaccination and the risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. N Engl J Med. 2017;376(13):1223–1233. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa1612296
Real-World Effectiveness & Disease Burden
Lei J, Ploner A, Elfström KM, et al. HPV vaccination and the risk of invasive cervical cancer. N Engl J Med. 2020;383(14):1340–1348. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa1917338
Falcaro M, Castañon A, Ndlela B, et al. The effects of the national HPV vaccination programme in England, UK, on cervical cancer and grade 3 cervical intraepithelial neoplasia incidence: a register-based observational study. The Lancet. 2021;398(10316):2084–2092. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02178-4
Palmer T, Wallace L, Pollock KG, et al. Prevalence of cervical disease at age 20 after immunisation with bivalent HPV vaccine at age 12–13 in Scotland. BMJ. 2019;365:l1161. DOI: 10.1136/bmj.l1161
Suzuki S, Hosono A. No association between HPV vaccine and reported post-vaccination symptoms in Japanese young women: results of the Nagoya study. Papillomavirus Res. 2018;5:96–103. DOI: 10.1016/j.pvr.2018.02.002
Simms KT, Hanley SJB, Smith MA, et al. Impact of HPV vaccine hesitancy on cervical cancer in Japan: a modelling study. Lancet Public Health. 2020;5(4):e223–e234. DOI: 10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30010-4
Official Surveillance and Public Health References
CDC. Epidemiology and Prevention of Vaccine-Preventable Diseases (The Pink Book) — HPV chapter. cdc.gov/pinkbook
CDC. HPV vaccination coverage data — National Immunization Survey — Teen (NIS-Teen). cdc.gov
Halma, M.; Varon, J. DARE-SAFE: Denominator-Adjusted Rate Estimates of Substance Adverse Events Frequency Evaluation in Pharmaceuticals and Vaccines. Pharmacoepidemiology. 2025, 4, 7. DOI: 10.3390/pharma4020007. CC BY 4.0.
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