COVID Vaccine Lot Reporting Rates (per million doses)

⚠️ These are REPORTING rates, not incidence or causal rates — read first

A VAERS report is not a confirmed, vaccine-caused event. "Deaths per million doses" here means death reports temporally associated with a lot — not vaccine-caused deaths.
Lot-rate variation is confounded by how long a lot was in use, the population that received it (early lots were given largely to nursing-home residents and other high-risk groups with high background mortality), and reporting intensity. A high or low per-dose rate should be interpreted with these factors in mind rather than read directly as batch quality.
Passive surveillance: under-reporting, over-reporting, and no causality assessment.

Denominator source & validation. Per-lot dose counts are from the openVAERS "Search Vaccine Lots" “# Doses” column (attributed by openVAERS to ICAN / Aaron Siri; the method used to derive per-lot doses is not documented and should be treated as a third-party estimate). We matched 521 lots to our VAERS counts. As a check, our death counts ÷ these doses reproduce openVAERS’s own published “Died/mil” column at r = 0.999 (all-SAEs r = 0.965), confirming the join and denominator are consistent.

Aggregate reporting rates (dose-weighted)

764

reports / million doses

111

serious reports / million

18.7

death reports / million

521

lots (839M doses)

Raw report count versus rate per dose

Y-axis rate:

Each point is a lot: x = raw VAERS report count, y = rate per million doses, colored by manufacturer. If report count and per-dose rate carried the same information, points would fall along a single curve. Some lots with many reports have a lower per-dose rate because they contained more doses; a lot’s raw report count and its rate per dose therefore rank lots differently. Rank correlation between raw count and per-dose rate is ρ = 0.69.

Per-lot table

Click any column header to sort. Toggle the rate metric above the chart; the table’s highlighted rate column follows it.

Lot	Mfr	Doses	Reports	Serious	Deaths	Reports/mil	Serious/mil	Deaths/mil

Data: our vaers_lot_reporting_rates.csv (VAERS 2006–2024 lot counts) × openVAERS “# Doses”. Reporting rates only; not incidence, not causal.

Part of the Open Source Medicine Foundation Network

Open Source Medicine Foundation

Home of the OSMF network — open-source pharmacovigilance tools and evidence-based medicine resources.

Research Tracker

Track peer-reviewed literature on vaccine safety, pharmacovigilance, and post-market surveillance.

Evidence Desk

Soft launch — provisional claim grades; not medical advice. Does not contain vaccine lot or VAERS data.

SpikeProtein.site

Comprehensive resource on spike protein biology, biodistribution, and clinical implications.

VitalScan4PACVS

Decentralized trial for PACVS (post-acute COVID-19 vaccination syndrome).

PACVS Research Summit

Weekly seminar series for researchers and clinicians studying post-acute COVID-19 vaccination syndrome.