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Mortality trends for vaccine-relevant conditions

National multiple-cause deaths by year (CDC WONDER) — an interrupted time series, read with care

What an interrupted time series can and cannot show. A level or slope change around 2021 is equally consistent with a vaccine effect and with the pandemic itself — 2020–2022 also saw wide SARS-CoV-2 circulation (a documented cause of both conditions shown here), plus coding, telehealth and care-seeking changes. This design cannot separate those causes; it is hypothesis-generating, one tier below a self-controlled case series, and never a causal statement. Conditions are limited to those where death is a plausible outcome — this approach does not work for SFN or POTS.

Myocarditis / pericarditis — ICD-10 (multiple cause): I40.0, I40.1, I40.8, I40.9, I41.0, I41.1, I41.2, I41.8, I51.4

2021 (COVID vaccine)0188377201820192020202120222023202420252026
YearDeaths (MCD)Crude rate /100k
20182120.1
20192060.1
20203280.1
20212560.1
20222560.1
20232120.1
20242180.1
20252540.1
2026 provisional / incomplete1150.0

The most recent year is an incomplete provisional count and should not be read as a full-year value or used in any average.

Guillain-Barré syndrome (G61.0) — ICD-10 (multiple cause): G61.0

2021 (COVID vaccine)0462924201820192020202120222023202420252026
YearDeaths (MCD)Crude rate /100k
20185870.2
20195510.2
20206270.2
20217120.2
20228040.2
20237140.2
20246950.2
20256920.2
2026 provisional / incomplete3980.1

The most recent year is an incomplete provisional count and should not be read as a full-year value or used in any average.

Source: CDC WONDER Provisional Mortality (D176), multiple-cause-of-death ICD-10, national, by year. Request built from a WONDER UI export. Reproducible: cdc_wonder_its.py + build_incidence_trends_page.py. Passive/administrative mortality data; hypothesis-generating only.

Part of the Open Source Medicine Foundation Network

Open Source Medicine Foundation

Home of the OSMF network — open-source pharmacovigilance tools and evidence-based medicine resources.

Research Tracker

Track peer-reviewed literature on vaccine safety, pharmacovigilance, and post-market surveillance.

Evidence Desk

Soft launch — provisional claim grades; not medical advice. Does not contain vaccine lot or VAERS data.

SpikeProtein.site

Comprehensive resource on spike protein biology, biodistribution, and clinical implications.

VitalScan4PACVS

Decentralized trial for PACVS (post-acute COVID-19 vaccination syndrome).

PACVS Research Summit

Annual summit convening researchers and clinicians studying post-acute COVID-19 vaccination syndrome.