Per-lot COVID adverse-event rate distributions — crude vs age-adjusted (violin plots)

Each row shows how an adverse event’s reporting rate varies from lot to lot. The crude violin (blue) shows the raw per-lot rate distribution; the age-adjusted violin (orange) standardizes for each lot’s recipient-age mix. The width of each violin at a given rate level reflects how many lots cluster near that rate — wider sections mean more lots are concentrated at that value. The black line marks the median (which may sit at the left edge for rare events where most lots report zero). A small "NN% zero" annotation indicates what fraction of lots reported zero events for that term. Age adjustment narrows and tightens much of the spread, indicating that a substantial share of the lot-to-lot variation is associated with the age of the recipients. A residual spread remains that this adjustment does not account for.

Crude per-lot rate Age-adjusted width = lot density, black line = median, "NN% zero" = zero-rate lots included

Totals

By adverse-event category

Individual adverse events (MedDRA terms)

The most-reported individual terms plus the clinically serious ones. For rarer events many lots report zero, so medians sit near the floor and the violins are narrow — expected for low per-lot counts. Zeros are included as a spike at the left edge so the median line sits inside the violin shape.

Adverse event	Crude median /mil	Crude IQR	Age-adj median	Age-adj IQR	IQR shrink
Arthralgia	21.08	9.08–56.44	30.35	19.41–38.88	2.4×
Dizziness	20.33	5.80–48.68	25.06	13.82–34.48	2.1×
Chills	17.54	6.17–58.42	24.92	14.65–40.63	2.0×
Asthenia	14.93	7.32–40.14	20.99	14.47–26.26	2.8×
Fatigue	7.65	2.93–28.59	12.27	6.64–20.05	1.9×
Headache	6.62	2.07–20.66	9.98	5.07–15.90	1.7×
Erythema	5.78	2.11–14.76	7.23	4.44–12.55	1.6×
Chest pain	5.75	1.75–9.95	5.83	3.52–8.20	1.8×
Extra dose administered	5.44	2.90–9.99	7.55	2.19–14.47	0.6×
Chest discomfort	5.37	1.46–10.63	6.07	3.29–8.57	1.7×
Abdominal pain	5.11	1.84–10.71	6.12	3.95–8.35	2.0×
Rash	4.84	1.47–11.66	6.11	3.15–8.21	2.0×
Cough	4.61	1.65–9.74	5.64	3.39–7.74	1.9×
Anxiety	4.57	1.26–12.39	5.81	2.70–8.30	2.0×
Dyspnoea	4.46	1.29–10.23	5.45	2.68–7.54	1.8×
Back pain	4.40	1.57–10.69	5.91	3.15–7.86	1.9×
Injection site erythema	4.19	1.49–12.18	5.08	2.52–14.07	0.9×
Condition aggravated	4.16	1.57–7.67	4.51	2.63–6.33	1.6×
Pruritus	4.01	1.02–9.90	4.93	2.44–7.35	1.8×
Abdominal pain upper	3.94	1.09–9.42	4.96	2.20–7.01	1.7×
Acute respiratory failure	3.91	1.48–7.38	4.60	2.08–8.26	1.0×
Hypoaesthesia	3.66	0.78–8.52	4.22	1.82–6.44	1.7×
Ageusia	3.00	0.83–8.66	4.04	1.71–6.08	1.8×
Abdominal discomfort	2.95	1.05–8.91	4.41	1.96–6.40	1.8×
Injection site pain	2.82	1.01–7.26	3.86	2.14–5.95	1.6×
Pain in extremity	2.80	0.73–9.10	4.37	1.52–6.73	1.6×
Blood pressure increased	2.37	0.68–6.30	2.95	1.13–4.86	1.5×
Diarrhoea	2.34	0.67–7.66	3.41	1.26–5.94	1.5×
Body temperature	2.26	0.26–8.74	3.78	0.75–6.82	1.4×
Death	1.88	0.33–5.81	2.89	0.82–5.27	1.2×
Bell's palsy	1.39	0.00–4.59	1.88	0.00–3.19	1.4×
Anaphylactic reaction	0.91	0.00–2.47	1.15	0.00–2.13	1.2×
Cerebrovascular accident	0.75	0.00–2.42	0.99	0.00–1.96	1.2×
Deep vein thrombosis	0.56	0.00–1.52	0.49	0.00–1.30	1.2×
Myocarditis	0.00	0.00–0.00	0.00	0.00–0.00	—
Pericarditis	0.00	0.00–0.00	0.00	0.00–0.00	—
Guillain-Barre syndrome	0.00	0.00–0.00	0.00	0.00–0.00	—
Pulmonary embolism	0.00	0.00–0.30	0.00	0.00–0.24	1.2×
Thrombocytopenia	0.00	0.00–0.00	0.00	0.00–0.00	—
Seizure	0.00	0.00–1.02	0.00	0.00–0.99	1.0×
Myocardial infarction	0.00	0.00–0.00	0.00	0.00–0.00	—
Cardiac arrest	0.00	0.00–0.78	0.00	0.00–0.57	1.4×

Read carefully. Per-lot rates use the 552 lots with known dose denominators only (imputed per-lot doses are unreliable). Passive VAERS reporting rates — not incidence, not causal. Age adjustment is indirect standardization on the age mix of reporters only; it cannot adjust for comorbidity, care setting, or era-specific reporting intensity, so a residual spread remains. A wide crude violin reflects a range of factors — differing recipient populations among them (see the rollout page) — and is not by itself an indication that a lot is unsafe or that it is safe.

Data: VAERS 2006–2024 lot cases × openVAERS doses. Reproducible: compute_ae_violins.py + build_ae_violin_page.py. Violin shapes via Gaussian KDE on log-transformed rates (zeros included at XMIN). Passive surveillance; hypothesis-generating only.

Per-lot adverse-event rate distributions Violin plots across 552 known-dose COVID lots — crude vs age-adjusted, reports per million doses

Totals

By adverse-event category

Individual adverse events (MedDRA terms)

Part of the Open Source Medicine Foundation Network