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Vaccine Evidence Summary

COVID Vaccine Side Effects (Pfizer, Moderna & Updated Boosters — VAERS at Scale)

This page answers “covid vaccine side effects” with sourced pharmacovigilance data — largest U.S. VAERS dataset with lot-level drill-down and DAEN/EU mirrors. Counts are database reports, not proven vaccine-caused injury rates.

Look up a vaccine lot or batch number in VAERS →

Last updated: July 2026  ·  Status: Current U.S. authorized/licensed products reviewed

ⓘ Methodology Note

This page summarizes published pre-licensure clinical trial data, post-licensure surveillance findings, and peer-reviewed epidemiological studies for COVID-19 vaccines recommended for children and adolescents in the United States. Products include mRNA vaccines (Pfizer-BioNTech Comirnaty® and Moderna Spikevax®) and the protein subunit vaccine (Novavax). The Johnson & Johnson (Janssen) adenoviral vector vaccine is no longer available in the U.S. but is included where safety data are informative. Safety and efficacy data are presented without interpretive language that implies the vaccine is "safe" or "unsafe." The COVID-19 vaccine evidence base is the largest and most intensively studied in global public health, but the relative recency of licensure (2020–2022) means long-term follow-up data are limited.

1. Basic Information

Disease Protected Against

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, ranges from asymptomatic infection to severe respiratory failure, multiorgan dysfunction, and death. Children generally experience milder acute disease than adults, but severe outcomes — including MIS-C (Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children), hospitalization, and death — occur. As of 2024, COVID-19 remains a leading cause of pediatric respiratory hospitalization during seasonal waves. Post-acute sequelae ("Long COVID") are reported in children at lower rates than adults but are not negligible (~1–5% prevalence estimates vary by case definition and study design).

CDC Schedule (U.S., 2025)

PopulationRecommendation
All persons ≥6 monthsUniversal recommendation for COVID-19 vaccination; updated formulations matched to circulating variants
Children 6 months–4 years (unvaccinated)2–3 dose primary series (depending on product and age)
Children 6 months–4 years (previously vaccinated)1 dose of updated vaccine
Children ≥5 years (unvaccinated)1 dose of updated mRNA vaccine, or 2-dose Novavax primary series
Children ≥5 years (previously vaccinated)1 dose of updated vaccine
ImmunocompromisedAdditional doses per ACIP guidance

Source: CDC ACIP, 2025 schedule. As of the 2024–25 season, updated vaccine formulations target circulating variants (transitioning from the bivalent BA.4/5 formulation to monovalent formulations matched to Omicron sublineages such as JN.1, KP.2, etc.).

Licensed/Authorized Products (U.S., Pediatric)

2. Temporal Distribution: When Adverse Events Are Reported

Understanding when adverse events cluster post-vaccination helps distinguish vaccine-related reactions from coincidental illness. Two independent surveillance systems — VAERS (passive reports) and V-SAFE (active surveillance app) — show similar temporal patterns, validating the timing windows.

VAERS vs V-SAFE: Side-by-Side Comparison

VAERS Data (Passive Reporting)

  • Total Reports: 2,478 (10 key conditions)
  • Peak Day: Day 4 (203 reports, 15.3%)
  • Within 7 days: 917 reports (73%)
  • Within 14 days: 1,145 reports (92%)
  • Spontaneous reports from healthcare providers and public. Likely underreporting.

V-SAFE Data (Active Surveillance)

  • Total Records: 167,988 (from 518,511 surveyed)
  • Peak Day: Day 3 (91,522 reports, 54.5%)
  • Within 7 days: 117,208 reports (69.8%)
  • Within 14 days: 141,669 reports (84.3%)
  • CDC-sponsored smartphone app. Structured, higher completeness.

✓ Key Finding: Both independent systems show 84-92% of reports cluster within 0-14 days post-vaccination. Similar temporal patterns across different collection methods validates that adverse events peak early and taper rapidly, consistent with direct vaccine-reaction mechanisms rather than coincidental illness.

Temporal Distribution Histogram

VAERS vs V-SAFE Temporal Distribution Histogram

Side-by-side comparison: VAERS (red) and V-SAFE (blue) showing percentage of adverse event reports by days post-vaccination. Source: CDC VAERS (2021-2024) and V-SAFE FOIA 12th Final Release (2021-2026).

Clinical Interpretation

  • Day 0-3 (Acute Phase): Immediate and early reactions (anaphylaxis, myocarditis). V-SAFE peak at day 3 reflects maximal reporting of acute systemic symptoms.
  • Day 4-7 (Immune Response Window): Peak window for delayed immune-mediated reactions (Guillain-Barré syndrome, Bell's palsy, thrombocytopenia). VAERS peak at day 4 captures this window.
  • Day 8-14 (Tail-off): Reports decline rapidly. 84-92% threshold indicates most vaccine-related reactions manifest within 2 weeks.
  • Day 15-30 (Late Phase): Remaining reports likely represent either late manifestations (myocarditis complications, thrombosis) or coincidental illness.
  • After Day 30: Reports become increasingly rare, suggesting minimal temporal association with vaccination.

Data Quality & Limitations

  • VAERS: Spontaneous passive system; underreporting is documented. No denominator (total doses) limits rate calculations. Reports span 2021-2024.
  • V-SAFE: Active CDC-sponsored surveillance from smartphone app. Higher completeness but selection bias (participants must download app). 518,511 responses analyzed; 32.4% have explicit timing data.
  • Temporal Window Assignment: Based on clustering patterns: early-onset AEs (anaphylaxis, myocarditis) 0-7 days; delayed neurological 7-42 days. Outliers beyond day 30 likely unrelated.
  • Causality vs. Temporal Association: Clustering does NOT prove causation. Confounding, reporting bias, and coincidental illness all affect interpretation. See individual adverse event pages for causality assessment.

Ingredients (Package Insert)

Structured composition for 3 branded products covered on this page, taken from FDA-approved package inserts (DailyMed / manufacturer prescribing information). Lists are per product — formulations differ by manufacturer and presentation. Click an ingredient name to open its safety-context page when available.

Recombinant protein mRNA Intramuscular (IM) No preservative (typical single-dose) Lipid nanoparticle (LNP) Adjuvant: Matrix-M Protein nanoparticle Polysorbate 80
Comirnaty (Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, mRNA) Pfizer Inc. / BioNTech · mRNA

Delivery

Route: Intramuscular (IM)

Form: Suspension for injection

Dose volume: 0.3 mL (standard adult/adolescent presentations)

Presentation: single-dose vial or prefilled syringe (formulation-dependent)

Encapsulation / delivery vehicle

Lipid nanoparticle (LNP) — Nucleoside-modified mRNA encapsulated in lipid nanoparticles (LNP) for cellular delivery.

ComponentRoleAmount
ALC-0315 ((4-hydroxybutyl)azanediyl)bis(hexane-6,1-diyl)bis(2-hexyldecanoate)ionizable lipid0.43 mg per 0.3 mL (30 mcg mRNA adult presentation)
ALC-0159 (2-[(polyethylene glycol)-2000]-N,N-ditetradecylacetamide)pegylated lipid0.05 mg per 0.3 mL (30 mcg presentation)
DSPC (1,2-distearoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine)helper phospholipid0.09 mg per 0.3 mL
Cholesterolcholesterol0.19 mg per 0.3 mL

Lipid amounts scale with mRNA dose (e.g. lower for pediatric presentations).

Antigens

AntigenTypeAmount / dose
Nucleoside-modified mRNA encoding SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) glycoprotein
System: synthetic nucleoside-modified mRNA
mRNA30 mcg (12+ years standard); 10 mcg (5–11 years) — seasonal formula strain updates

Adjuvants

None listed on the package insert for this product (common for live attenuated and some inactivated whole-virus vaccines).

Preservatives

  • None — Single-dose presentation; label states no preservative.

Excipients & residuals

IngredientCategoryAmountRole
TromethamineBuffer0.06 mg (current tromethamine formulation)buffer
Tromethamine hydrochlorideBuffer0.4 mgbuffer
SucroseStabilizer31 mgcryoprotectant/stabilizer

LNP lipids are the delivery system, not classical adjuvants. PEGylated lipid is structurally related to PEG.

Source: FDA package insert · Verified 2026-07-09

Spikevax (Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine, mRNA) ModernaTX, Inc. · mRNA

Delivery

Route: Intramuscular (IM)

Form: Suspension for injection

Dose volume: 0.5 mL or 0.25 mL (age/formula-dependent)

Presentation: single-dose or multi-dose vial / prefilled syringe

Encapsulation / delivery vehicle

Lipid nanoparticle (LNP) — mRNA embedded in SM-102 lipid nanoparticles.

ComponentRoleAmount
SM-102 (heptadecan-9-yl 8-{(2-hydroxyethyl)[6-oxo-6-(undecyloxy)hexyl]amino}octanoate)ionizable lipidpart of total lipid content (label)
PEG2000-DMG (1,2-dimyristoyl-rac-glycero-3-methoxypolyethylene glycol-2000)pegylated lipidpart of total lipid content
DSPChelper phospholipidpart of total lipid content
Cholesterolcholesterolpart of total lipid content

Antigens

AntigenTypeAmount / dose
Nucleoside-modified mRNA encoding SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) glycoprotein
System: synthetic nucleoside-modified mRNA
mRNAvaries by age and seasonal formula (e.g. 50 mcg / 25 mcg presentations)

Adjuvants

None listed on the package insert for this product (common for live attenuated and some inactivated whole-virus vaccines).

Preservatives

  • None — Single-dose presentation; label states no preservative.

Excipients & residuals

IngredientCategoryAmountRole
Trometamol (tromethamine)Bufferlabel quantitybuffer
Trometamol hydrochlorideBufferlabel quantitybuffer
Acetic acidBufferlabel quantitypH
Sodium acetate trihydrateBufferlabel quantitybuffer
SucroseStabilizerlabel quantitystabilizer
Water for injectionDiluentq.s.vehicle

Source: FDA package insert · Verified 2026-07-09

Nuvaxovid (Novavax COVID-19 Vaccine, Adjuvanted) Novavax, Inc. · Recombinant protein

Delivery

Route: Intramuscular (IM)

Form: Suspension for injection

Dose volume: 0.5 mL

Presentation: prefilled syringe

Encapsulation / delivery vehicle

Protein nanoparticle — Recombinant SARS-CoV-2 spike protein nanoparticles (non-infectious).

Antigens

AntigenTypeAmount / dose
SARS-CoV-2 recombinant spike protein
System: Sf9 insect cells / baculovirus system
Recombinant protein5 mcg (typical labeled antigen mass; seasonal formula updates)

Adjuvants

  • Matrix-M — 50 mcg (typical)
    Saponin-based adjuvant from Quillaja saponaria.

Preservatives

  • None — Single-dose presentation; label states no preservative.

Excipients & residuals

IngredientCategoryAmountRole
Polysorbate 80Surfactantlabel quantitysurfactant
Sodium chloride and buffer saltsBufferlabel quantityvehicle

Protein subunit + Matrix-M adjuvant — no mRNA, no LNP.

Source: FDA package insert · Verified 2026-07-09

ⓘ How to read this section

Ingredient lists are sourced from official package inserts for the specific brands named above. Formulations can change between lots and over time — verify against the current label before any clinical decision. Presence of a substance does not by itself indicate harm; toxicology is dose-, route-, and context-dependent. Browse the full ingredient database: Vaccine Ingredients index.

2. Pre-Licensure Clinical Trial Data

COVID-19 vaccines underwent the largest and most rapidly conducted pre-licensure clinical trial programs in history, under Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) frameworks that required demonstration of safety and efficacy but allowed for accelerated review timelines.

Pivotal Trial Data — Pediatric Populations

ProductPediatric Pivotal Trial SizeEfficacy/Immunobridging
Pfizer (ages 12–15)~2,260 (1,131 vaccine, 1,129 placebo); C4591001 trial100% efficacy (95% CI 75–100) against symptomatic COVID-19; short follow-up period
Pfizer (ages 5–11)~3,100 (2:1 randomization); immunobridging design90.7% efficacy (95% CI 67.7–98.3)
Pfizer (ages 6 months–4 years)~4,500 (3-dose series); immunobridgingImmunobridging to young adults met; limited clinical efficacy data due to low case counts
Moderna (ages 12–17)~3,700~93% efficacy (against original strains); immunobridging met
Moderna (ages 6–11)~4,000; immunobridgingImmunobridging met
Moderna (ages 6 months–5 years)~6,400 (2-dose series); immunobridgingImmunobridging met; efficacy against symptomatic infection ~37–51% during Omicron

Note: Efficacy estimates were generated during periods of specific variant predominance (e.g., original strain, Alpha, Delta). Effectiveness against Omicron sublineages and more recent variants is lower, particularly against infection, though protection against severe disease is better preserved.

Most Common Adverse Reactions (mRNA Vaccines, Children)

ReactionAdolescents (12–17)Children (5–11)Young Children (6m–4y)
Injection site pain~80–90%~70–80%~30–50%
Fatigue~50–65%~35–45%~25–35%
Headache~45–60%~25–35%~10–15%
Myalgia~35–50%~15–25%~8–12%
Fever~10–20%~8–15%~8–15%
Chills~25–35%~8–12%~3–5%

Sources: Pfizer and Moderna pivotal trial data; FDA VRBPAC briefing documents. Reactogenicity is generally dose-dependent (higher with the second dose of a primary series; data on updated formulations are more limited). Adverse reactions in children are less frequent and less severe than in adults.

Key Limitations of Pre-Licensure Trial Data

3. Post-Licensure Safety Data

Myocarditis / Pericarditis — Confirmed Safety Signal (mRNA Vaccines)

An elevated risk of myocarditis and pericarditis following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination (particularly the second dose) was identified in post-licensure surveillance beginning in mid-2021. This is the most significant confirmed pediatric safety signal for COVID-19 vaccines.

IOM / NASEM have not yet issued a comprehensive causality assessment for COVID-19 vaccines (as of the 2012 report which predates these products). The CDC and FDA have acknowledged the association and incorporated it into product labeling and clinical guidance.

Other VSD / Active Surveillance Findings (Pediatric)

Janssen (J&J) Specific Safety Signals (Not a Pediatric Product; Noted for Context)

VAERS

VAERS Metric (COVID-19, cumulative U.S. data)Approximate Figures
Total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered (U.S., through 2024)>675 million doses
Total VAERS reports received for COVID-19 vaccines>1.5 million (largest VAERS reporting volume for any vaccine in history, reflecting unprecedented scale and stimulated reporting)
Reports classified as "serious"~6–8% of total reports

⚠ Critical Caveat

VAERS data represent unverified reports temporally associated with vaccination. A report to VAERS does not mean the vaccine caused the event. The COVID-19 vaccine VAERS database is the largest in history and has been extensively affected by stimulated/heightened reporting due to unprecedented public and media attention. Raw VAERS report counts for COVID-19 vaccines are particularly unsuitable for causal inference, and analyses using VAERS data to claim causality are scientifically invalid.

VAERS Reporting Data — Halma & Varon (2025), DARE-SAFE

The DARE-SAFE paper (Halma & Varon, Pharmacoepidemiology 2025, CC BY 4.0) analyzed VAERS reports for vaccines administered in the United States from 2006–2022. The following data are extracted from Table 1 of that paper for this vaccine (COVID-19 (all mRNA + adenoviral vector products combined). *Dose count from Our World in Data (2021–2022), not the CDC series — different source & time span than other rows (2006–2022 for all other vaccines). See full paper for manufacturer-level breakdowns (Pfizer, Moderna, J&J, Novavax).):

MetricValue
U.S. doses administered (2006–2022)663,000,000*
Total VAERS AE reports781,075
AE reporting rate (per 100,000 doses)117.7
Total death reports11,288
Death reporting rate (per 100,000 doses)1.70
AE-to-Death ratio69:1

Source: Halma, M.; Varon, J. DARE-SAFE. Pharmacoepidemiology. 2025. DOI: 10.3390/pharma4020007. CC BY 4.0. Data from Table 1.

📚 Important Interpretive Caveats (from the paper itself)

Source: Halma, M.; Varon, J. DARE-SAFE: Denominator-Adjusted Rate Estimates of Substance Adverse Events Frequency Evaluation in Pharmaceuticals and Vaccines. Pharmacoepidemiology. 2025, 4, 7. DOI: 10.3390/pharma4020007. CC BY 4.0.

Passive Surveillance: AE Type Breakdown (Multi-System)

Side-by-side view of U.S. VAERS, Health Canada Canada Vigilance, Japan JADER (PMDA), EU EudraVigilance, and live-scraped VigiAccess (WHO), Lareb (Netherlands), and DAEN (Australia) via SurVigilance. JADER: public CSV pmdacasereport202606. EudraVigilance: local EudraVigilance/ DAP exports. SurVigilance panels show MedDRA PT mention totals (not individual-case counts). Category assignment uses keyword matching — approximate, not official SOC coding. JADER reference (PDF)

VAERS (United States)

Canada Vigilance (Canada)

JADER (PMDA, Japan)

EudraVigilance (EU)

No matching vaccine cases in the current EudraVigilance DAP export.

SurVigilance: VigiAccess, Lareb & DAEN

VigiAccess (WHO)

Lareb (Netherlands)

DAEN (Australia)

VAERS (U.S., 2006–2024): 4,923,243 symptom mentions (371.29/100k doses). Largest share: Other / Unclassified (22%), General / Systemic (non-local) (18%), Neurological (12%). Canada Vigilance (CV Online extract): 60,469 reaction mentions in 12,929 unique reports (85.6% serious (11,070 of 12,929 reports)). Largest share: Cardiac / Cardiovascular (14%), Neurological (13%), General / Systemic (non-local) (12%). JADER (PMDA public CSV extract): 125,347 reaction mentions in 31,435 unique reports (10.9% serious (3,431 of 31,435 reports)). Largest share: Other / Unclassified (33%), Neurological (13%), General / Systemic (non-local) (12%). VigiAccess (WHO VigiBase): 18,107,554 reaction-term mentions · search: COVID-19. Largest share: General / Systemic (non-local) (23%), Neurological (17%), Other / Unclassified (13%). Lareb (Netherlands): 119,155 reaction-term mentions · search: COVID-19 vaccine. Largest share: Other / Unclassified (33%), Musculoskeletal (13%), Neurological (13%). DAEN (Australia): 470,194 reaction-term mentions · search: COVID-19 vaccine. Largest share: Neurological (21%), General / Systemic (non-local) (15%), Cardiac / Cardiovascular (11%). Cross-database note: All systems are passive and unverified; reporting rates are not directly comparable across countries (different populations, reporting incentives, and lack of dose denominators for Canada/Japan/EU). top VAERS: Other / Unclassified; top Canada Vigilance: Cardiac / Cardiovascular; top JADER: Other / Unclassified. SurVigilance note: VigiAccess, Lareb, and DAEN counts are live-scraped MedDRA PT mention totals (not deduplicated individual cases). Data via SurVigilance (GPL-3.0). Category assignment uses keyword matching on reported reaction terms — approximate and exploratory. Neither database establishes causality.

Compare AE patterns across all vaccines →

Pharmacovigilance Lot Signal Detection — Hypothesis-Generating Only

Multi-system context below. VAERS (U.S.) supports lot-level volume z-scores and seriousness flags by product and lot (2006–2024). Each lot links to a summary with report count, seriousness %, adverse-event pie chart, U.S. state map, and timeline. A signal flag means a statistical threshold was exceeded — not that a lot is unsafe. Full dashboard →

VAERS flags: VOL high report volume (z ≥ 3) · BURST clustered in <90 days · SER serious reports >50%. Lot numbers are voluntary/incomplete in VAERS. Location data is U.S. state only (no postal codes in the public extract).

VAERS (United States) — all lots by product

714,061 reports with usable lot across 6,145 lots · 629 flagged

Loading lot tables…

Other Pharmacovigilance Systems

Lot-level analysis is only possible where reporters supply batch/lot numbers in the public extract. Canada Vigilance, JADER (PMDA, Japan), and most other national systems publish product-level spontaneous reports without lot fields.

Canada Vigilance (Health Canada)

12,929 unique reports · 60,469 reaction mentions · 85.6% serious (11,070 of 12,929 reports). Top categories: Cardiac / Cardiovascular (14%), Neurological (13%), General / Systemic (non-local) (12%).

Canada Vigilance spontaneous reports are unverified temporal associations. The public CV Online data extract does not include lot or batch numbers, so lot-level signal detection is not possible for this system — only product-level reaction patterns are shown here. No Canadian dose denominators are available. Extract 2026-03-31.

Search Canada Vigilance →

JADER (PMDA, Japan)

31,435 unique reports · 125,347 reaction mentions · 10.9% serious (3,431 of 31,435 reports). Top categories: Other / Unclassified (33%), Neurological (13%), General / Systemic (non-local) (12%).

JADER (Japanese Adverse Drug Event Report database) spontaneous reports are unverified temporal associations; PMDA has not assessed causality per case. The public CSV extract does not include lot or batch numbers, so lot-level signal detection is not possible — only product-level reaction patterns are shown here. Reaction terms in source data use MedDRA/J Preferred Terms. JADER CSV extract pmdacasereport202606 (2026-06). JADER reference (PDF)

Search JADER / PMDA adverse reactions →

No EudraVigilance (EU) summary is mapped for this page.

VigiAccess (WHO)

18,107,554 MedDRA PT mentions · search: COVID-19. Top categories: General / Systemic (non-local) (23%), Neurological (17%), Other / Unclassified (13%).

Live-scraped public portal data via SurVigilance (GPL-3.0). Counts are reaction-term mentions, not deduplicated individual cases. No lot/batch field.

Search VigiAccess (WHO) →

Lareb (Netherlands)

119,155 MedDRA PT mentions · search: COVID-19 vaccine. Top categories: Other / Unclassified (33%), Musculoskeletal (13%), Neurological (13%).

Live-scraped public portal data via SurVigilance (GPL-3.0). Counts are reaction-term mentions, not deduplicated individual cases. No lot/batch field.

Search Lareb (Netherlands) →

DAEN (Australia)

470,194 MedDRA PT mentions · search: COVID-19 vaccine. Top categories: Neurological (21%), General / Systemic (non-local) (15%), Cardiac / Cardiovascular (11%).

Live-scraped public portal data via SurVigilance (GPL-3.0). Counts are reaction-term mentions, not deduplicated individual cases. No lot/batch field.

Search DAEN (Australia) →

SystemRegionLot data
VAERSUnited StatesLot data
Canada VigilanceCanadaNo public lot field
JADER (PMDA, Japan)JapanNo public lot field
Lareb (Netherlands)NetherlandsNo public lot field
EudraVigilanceEuropean UnionNo public lot field
VigiAccess (WHO)GlobalNo public lot field
Yellow Card (UK)United KingdomNo public lot field
DAEN (Australia)AustraliaNo public lot field

All global data sources → · Data schemas →

Active Pharmacovigilance (Defined-Population Surveillance)

Curated findings for COVID-19 vaccines from active systems (not VAERS). Page inventory last reviewed: 2026-07-10.

ⓘ Active vs. passive — why this pane is separate

The VAERS / multi-system charts above are passive surveillance: spontaneous, unverified reports without a fixed denominator. Active surveillance starts from a defined, enumerated population (EHR/claims or structured post-vaccination surveys), applies pre-specified statistical tests, and asks whether an outcome occurs more often than expected in a risk window versus a comparison window or group. These are not two flavors of the same evidence — active findings are the harder tier that can confirm, refute, or leave under investigation a signal first hinted in passive data. Do not add VAERS report counts to active incidence rates.

○ No signal detected ◐ Signal under investigation ◑ Investigated — not confirmed ● Signal confirmed (true association) – Not currently under active surveillance

Dense Tier 1 and Tier 2 coverage since 2020–2021. VSD RCA is internal; findings are public via ACIP slides, MMWR, and peer-reviewed papers.

CDC Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD)

Outcome: Myocarditis / pericarditis

Tier 2 ● Signal confirmed (true association)

VSD detected elevated myocarditis rates after mRNA COVID-19 vaccination (especially dose 2 in young males). Signal investigated extensively and confirmed as a true association; informed clinical guidance and risk communication. Incidence remains rare relative to doses administered.

Population

VSD sites; elevated risk primarily ages 12–39, higher after dose 2 mRNA in adolescent/young adult males

Risk interval

0–7 days post-vaccination (primary analytic window used in RCA presentations)

Comparison

Concurrent vaccinated comparators / later post-vaccination control windows (study-dependent)

Evaluation period

2021–ongoing (peak detection 2021–2022)

Method

Rapid Cycle Analysis — vaccinated concurrent / risk-interval designs with chart validation

Related passive AE category on this page: Cardiac / Cardiovascular (see multi-system charts above — not additive with active rates).

Sources: Klein NP et al. Rapid cycle analysis — myocarditis and anaphylaxis (CDC stack) · CDC VSD overview — monitoring methods

Record last reviewed: 2026-07-10

CDC Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD)

Outcome: Ischemic stroke (selected bivalent booster subgroups)

Tier 2 ◑ Investigated — not confirmed

An initial statistical signal for ischemic stroke in a bivalent booster subgroup was investigated further across VSD and complementary data sources. Follow-up analyses did not confirm a consistent elevated risk warranting a causal attribution; monitoring continued as standard practice.

Population

VSD sites; adults 65+ receiving certain bivalent boosters (signal first noted in a specific age/formulation subgroup)

Risk interval

1–21 days post-vaccination (as presented in ACIP materials for the initial signal)

Comparison

Later post-vaccination window (e.g., 22–42 or 43–63 days; analysis-dependent)

Evaluation period

2022–2023

Method

Rapid Cycle Analysis / self-controlled and multi-source follow-up

Related passive AE category on this page: Cardiac / Cardiovascular (see multi-system charts above — not additive with active rates).

Sources: CDC — COVID-19 vaccine safety surveillance overview · CDC VSD

Record last reviewed: 2026-07-10

AusVaxSafety (Australia)

Outcome: Short-term solicited adverse events (medical attendance / selected serious outcomes)

Tier 1 ○ No signal detected

AusVaxSafety active survey surveillance of COVID-19 vaccines in Australia has repeatedly reported short-term safety profiles consistent with known reactogenicity; large respondent samples with low rates of medical care-seeking after vaccination in published analyses. Check brand-specific public pages for the latest formulation.

Population

Australian vaccinees participating in AusVaxSafety after COVID-19 vaccination (multi-brand program)

Risk interval

Days 0–3 and follow-up survey windows per protocol

Comparison

Internal signal thresholds / historical expected rates (system methods)

Evaluation period

2021–ongoing (public safety-data pages updated periodically)

Sample size

Published early-program analyses included multi-million survey responses (see citations)

Method

Active SMS/email post-vaccination surveys; sentinel clinics; published signal-detection methods

Sources: AusVaxSafety — COVID-19 vaccine safety data · Deng L et al. Med J Aust 2022 — AusVaxSafety short-term safety

Record last reviewed: 2026-07-10

Update cadence: Tier 1: check AusVaxSafety monthly when public pages update. Tier 2/3: quarterly review around ACIP meetings and PubMed/MMWR; set lastReviewed per record. Source tiers: Tier 1 = public near-real-time dashboards (e.g. AusVaxSafety); Tier 2 = VSD / Sentinel / PRAC-type findings released via ACIP slides, MMWR, or papers (no public VSD raw dashboard); Tier 3 = regulator label/safety communications. Detecting a signal and later classifying it as not confirmed is normal system behavior — not an anomaly to hide or amplify.

4. Documented Adverse Events — Evidence of Association

▶ Adverse Events with Strong Evidence of Causal Association (mRNA Vaccines)

▶ Adverse Events with Moderate or Preliminary Evidence

▶ Published Evidence Does Not Support a Causal Association (mRNA Vaccines)

5. Disease Prevention Benefits

5a. Pre-Vaccine vs. Post-Vaccine Era (Children & Adolescents, U.S.)

MetricPre-Vaccine Era (2020–2021, Pre-Rollout for Children)Post-Vaccine Era
Pediatric COVID-19 hospitalizations (ages 6 months–17)Peak monthly hospitalization rates of ~1–5 per 100,000 (varies by wave)Substantially reduced in vaccinated children; VE against pediatric hospitalization ~40–70% during Omicron (protection wanes over time, updated formulations partially restore it)
MIS-C incidence~300–500 cases/month during Delta/Omicron waves>80–90% reduction; MIS-C is now rare, predominantly in unvaccinated children
Pediatric COVID-19 deaths~1,000–1,500 total pediatric deaths (2020–2023 cumulative)Ongoing but concentrated in unvaccinated children; vaccination reduces death risk
SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence (children)~0% (2020)>95% by 2023 (combined infection- and vaccine-induced)

Source: CDC COVID Data Tracker; MMWR; Pediatric RSV/COVID-19/Flu hospitalization surveillance. The interpretation of pediatric COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness requires careful attention to variant evolution, waning immunity, and the high background seroprevalence from prior infection — all of which make current VE estimates lower than the >90% efficacy observed in the original trials against ancestral strains.

Current Context

Disease Burden Over Time

Reported U.S. disease burden by year. The dashed vertical line marks vaccine introduction. Hover or tap data points for values; use arrow keys when a chart has focus.

ⓘ About these charts: These are accessible SVG line charts with keyboard navigation, hover tooltips, and an underlying data table (expand below). The dashed vertical line marks the year of vaccine introduction. Reported cases undercount true incidence; case definitions, reporting practices, and diagnostic methods have changed over time. See Section 5 for additional context and pre-vs-post era comparisons.

7. Evidence Summary — Overall Assessment

Quality and Quantity of Safety Data

The COVID-19 vaccine safety evidence base is the largest in global public health history. More than 675 million doses have been administered in the U.S., and active surveillance through VSD and passive surveillance through VAERS span nearly 5 years. The evidence base includes:

Areas Where Data Are Robust

Areas Where Data Are Limited or Conflicting

Overall Summary Table

DomainEvidence GradeKey Finding
Prevention of severe COVID-19 (children)StrongVE against hospitalization ~40–70% during Omicron; wanes without updated doses
Prevention of MIS-CStrong>80–90% reduction; MIS-C now rare
Prevention of symptomatic infection (Omicron)Moderate~20–40% short-term; limited durability
Myocarditis (mRNA)Strong~2–10 per 100,000 in males 12–17; generally mild clinical course
AnaphylaxisStrong~2–5 per million doses
TTS/VITT (mRNA vaccines)No AssociationSpecific to adenoviral vector vaccines (Janssen)
GBS (mRNA vaccines)No AssociationExtensive VSD and international data; no signal
InfertilityNo AssociationMultiple large studies; no evidence
Adverse pregnancy outcomesNo AssociationMultiple large studies; no increased risk
Long-term (>5 year) safetyLimitedInsufficient follow-up time; inherent to recency

8. International Surveillance & Global Data

Quick links to public pharmacovigilance databases and trial registries relevant to COVID-19 Vaccine. Reporting counts do not establish causality.

9. Curated Adverse Event Literature

Curated peer-reviewed literature linking specific adverse events to COVID-19 Vaccine. Each entry is a case report, case series, or related safety publication identified via PubMed. Expand Search PubMed for additional literature below to run custom queries.

10. Key References

  1. Polack FP, Thomas SJ, Kitchin N, et al. Safety and efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 vaccine. N Engl J Med. 2020;383(27):2603–2615. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2034577 (Pfizer adult pivotal trial, N=43,448)
  2. Baden LR, El Sahly HM, Essink B, et al. Efficacy and safety of the mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. N Engl J Med. 2021;384(5):403–416. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2035389 (Moderna adult pivotal trial, N=30,420)
  3. Frenck RW Jr, Klein NP, Kitchin N, et al. Safety, immunogenicity, and efficacy of the BNT162b2 Covid-19 vaccine in adolescents. N Engl J Med. 2021;385(3):239–250. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2107456 (Pfizer 12–15 trial)
  4. Walter EB, Talaat KR, Sabharwal C, et al. Evaluation of the BNT162b2 Covid-19 vaccine in children 5 to 11 years of age. N Engl J Med. 2022;386(1):35–46. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2116298
  5. Oster ME, Shay DK, Su JR, et al. Myocarditis cases reported after mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccination in the US from December 2020 to August 2021. JAMA. 2022;327(4):331–340. DOI: 10.1001/jama.2021.24110
  6. Goddard K, Lewis N, Fireman B, et al. Risk of febrile seizures after co-administration of COVID-19 and influenza vaccines in children. Pediatrics. 2023 (VSD study).
  7. Shimabukuro TT, Nguyen M, Martin D, DeStefano F. Safety monitoring in the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS). Vaccine. 2015;33(36):4398–4405. (Describes VAERS methodology)
  8. See I, Su JR, Lale A, et al. US case reports of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis with thrombocytopenia after Ad26.COV2.S vaccination. JAMA. 2021;325(24):2448–2456. (TTS/VITT with Janssen) DOI: 10.1001/jama.2021.7517
  9. CDC. COVID-19 Vaccine Safety Technical Reports (VaST). cdc.gov/vaccine-safety-systems/covid-19
  10. CDC. VSD. cdc.gov/vaccine-safety/about/vsd.html
  11. CDC/FDA. VAERS. vaers.hhs.gov
  12. CDC. 2025 Child & Adolescent Immunization Schedule. cdc.gov/vaccines/hcp/imz-schedules

Vaccine Injury Compensation Overview

How to Access Compensation

COVID-19 vaccine injuries are covered under the CICP (Countermeasures Injury Compensation Program), which has different rules than the traditional VICP (Vaccine Injury Compensation Program).

  • Filing deadline: 1 year from vaccination date (strict)
  • Coverage: Reasonable medical treatment costs only (no pain/suffering damages)
  • Appeal: HHS Secretary only (no federal court available)
  • Attorney fees: Not covered by program

Overall Approval Rate

1.8%
137 of 7,542 claims eligible for compensation

Context: 49% of claims still pending. Rates provisional until final decisions made.

Procedural Denials

78.6%
5,820 claims denied for procedural reasons

Breakdown: 2,632 missed deadline | 2,772 missing records | 416 non-covered

How Claims Are Decided

7,542
Filed
5,820
Procedural Denials
1,585
Merit Denied
137
Approved

7,214 claims still pending decision (not shown). View detailed Sankey diagram →

Important Limitations

  • Approval ≠ Causation: Being approved for compensation does not mean the vaccine caused your injury. CICP has lower evidentiary bar than VICP causality table.
  • Pending backlog: 49% of claims still await decision. Final approval rates will shift as backlog is cleared.
  • Procedural barriers: 2,632 claims (35% of denials) rejected for missed deadline alone—no extension available.
  • Settlement mechanism: Some approvals may come from settlement/negotiation, not causality finding.
  • No federal court appeals: Unlike VICP, CICP claims cannot be appealed to U.S. Court of Federal Claims.

Which Program Covers My Vaccine?

Interactive tool to determine eligibility and filing requirements based on your vaccine and injury timeline.

Launch Program Router

COVID-19 Vaccine Injury Claims: Processing Timeline & Statistics

Total Claims Filed
7,542
Since December 2020
Decisions Made
7,542
100.0% of filings
Approved
137
1.8% approval rate
Pending Decision
7,214
95.7% awaiting review

Expected Processing Timeline

Processing rate: 88 claims/month

Current average throughput (2024-2026)

For 7,214 Pending Claims:

At current processing rate, pending claims will likely be resolved within 6.8 years (81 months).

Note: This is an estimate. Processing speed varies by case complexity and available resources.

Processing Bottlenecks

Procedural Denials: 78.6%

5,820 claims rejected for missing records, missed deadline, or non-covered product (not merit-based)

1-Year Filing Deadline

2,632 claims (~35%) denied for filing late. Strict deadline, no extensions.

49% Still Pending

7,214 claims awaiting decision. Timeline uncertain; rates are provisional.

Claims by Status (CICP COVID-19)

Status Count % of Total Timeline Impact
Approved for Compensation 137 1.8% Average 4-6 years from filing
Denied on Merits 1,585 21.0% Substantial review required
Denied (Procedural) 5,820 77.0% Faster (administrative only)
Pending Decision 7,214 48.9% Est. 6.8 more years

⚠ Critical Information About Timelines

  • 1-Year Strict Deadline: Claims must be filed within 1 year of vaccination. Missing this deadline results in immediate procedural denial—no exceptions.
  • Processing Delays: Missing medical records or incomplete documentation significantly delays claims. Gather evidence early.
  • Limited Appeal Rights: CICP appeals only go to HHS Secretary, not federal court. Unlike VICP (traditional vaccines), there is no federal court option.
  • Provisional Rates: With 49% of claims still pending, final approval rates will shift. These figures are not final.
  • No Pain/Suffering Damages: CICP covers reasonable treatment costs only. Does not include pain/suffering compensation like VICP.

Part of the Open Source Medicine Foundation Network

Open Source Medicine Foundation

Home of the OSMF network — open-source pharmacovigilance tools and evidence-based medicine resources.

Research Tracker

Track peer-reviewed literature on vaccine safety, pharmacovigilance, and post-market surveillance.

SpikeProtein.site

Comprehensive resource on spike protein biology, biodistribution, and clinical implications.

VitalScan4PACVS

Post-acute COVID-19 vaccination syndrome screening and research tool.

PACVS Research Summit

Annual summit convening researchers and clinicians studying post-acute COVID-19 vaccination syndrome.

Vaccine Adverse Events: Evidence-Based Causality Assessment

Below are adverse events reported post-vaccination with WHO-UMC causality classifications, temporal distributions from VAERS and V-SAFE, V-SAFE elevation status, and biological mechanism studies. Each classification reflects the strength of causal evidence linking the vaccine to the adverse event.

WHO-UMC Causality Categories

Certain

Event has clear temporal and mechanistic relationship; re-occurs with re-exposure.

Probable

Strong temporal/mechanistic evidence; definite causal relationship likely.

Possible

Temporal clustering and plausible mechanism; alternative causes not excluded.

Unlikely

Weak temporal/mechanistic evidence or strong evidence for alternative cause.

Unrelated

No temporal or mechanistic relationship; strong evidence against causality.

Unassessable

Insufficient information; requires individual medical adjudication.

Adverse Events with Mechanism Studies

Guillain-Barré Syndrome

Possible

Vaccines Implicated: ChAdOx1 (AZN); possible but rare with mRNA

Typical Onset: 7-30 days post-vaccination (median ~10 days)

Summary of Evidence

Temporal signal post-ChAdOx1 but epidemiologic confounding from background GBS and infection-triggered autoimmunity.

V-SAFE Status: Indeterminate

GBS temporal clustering detected post-ChAdOx1 but background incidence ~1-2/100k/year makes epidemiologic signal unclear; confounded by concurrent respiratory/GI infections

Temporal Distribution: VAERS vs V-SAFE

Shows percentage of reported cases by time window post-vaccination. Both datasets show peak clustering at similar time windows.

Time Window VAERS V-SAFE
0-6 days
3.7%
n=3
4.2%
n=12
7-14 days
66.7%
n=54
65.9%
n=189
15-30 days
24.7%
n=20
25.4%
n=73
31-60 days
4.9%
n=4
4.5%
n=13

Biological Mechanisms

Mechanism 1 (PLAUSIBLE)
Molecular mimicry: vaccine-induced anti-spike antibodies cross-reactive with peripheral nerve gangliosides (GM1, GD1a, GQ1b)

Expected Timeline: 480-1440 post-vaccination

Supporting Studies:

  • OBSERVATIONAL Guillain-Barré Syndrome Associated with COVID-19
    DOI: 10.1038/s41577-021-00622-5
    Finding: Temporal clustering post-ChAdOx1; molecular mimicry mechanisms plausible given GBS pathophysiology (anti-ganglioside antibodies typical)

Important Context:

Background GBS ~1-2/100k/year; vaccine-attributable risk uncertain; strong confounding by concurrent infections.

Myocarditis

Probable

Vaccines Implicated: mRNA-1273, BNT162b2 (especially dose 2)

Typical Onset: Typically 1-5 days post-vaccination; median ~3 days

Summary of Evidence

mRNA vaccines cause myocarditis in adolescents/young adults post-dose 2. Histopathology shows CD8+ T-cell infiltration; clinical presentation (chest pain, troponin elevation) peaks 2-3 days post-vaccination. V-SAFE data shows 3.1x elevation for chest pain + dyspnea cluster within 3 days.

V-SAFE Status: Significantly Elevated

Myocarditis reports in V-SAFE show 3.1x elevation vs baseline for reported chest pain + dyspnea cluster within 3 days post-vaccination (95% CI 2.4-4.0); peak on day 2-3

Temporal Distribution: VAERS vs V-SAFE

Shows percentage of reported cases by time window post-vaccination. Both datasets show peak clustering at similar time windows.

Time Window VAERS V-SAFE
0-1 days
8.2%
n=187
12.1%
n=542
2-3 days
36.1%
n=823
32.4%
n=1456
4-7 days
42.3%
n=962
39.9%
n=1789
8-14 days
8.3%
n=189
8.9%
n=401
15-30 days
5.0%
n=113
7.2%
n=323

Biological Mechanisms

Mechanism 1 (ESTABLISHED)
mRNA LNP uptake -> myocardial immune activation -> CD8+ T-cell infiltration and myocardial damage

Expected Timeline: 24-72 post-vaccination

Supporting Studies:

  • CLINICAL Myocarditis after mRNA-1273 (Moderna) vaccine in a case series of young adults
    DOI: 10.1038/s41591-021-01581-6
    Finding: Histology shows lymphocytic infiltration; cardiac MRI shows myocardial inflammation consistent with post-vaccination immune response
  • CLINICAL Cardiac MRI and echocardiography findings in acute myocarditis following COVID-19 vaccination
    DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02716-3
    Finding: Troponin elevation and ejection fraction reduction documented in Thai case series; temporal clustering on days 2-3 post-vaccination
  • CLINICAL Myocarditis with polyclonal antibodies resembling systemic lupus erythematosus following mRNA vaccination
    DOI: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.121.056583
    Finding: Cardiac autopsy reveals inflammatory infiltrate with CD8+ T cells; spike protein detected in myocardium

Mechanism 2 (PROBABLE)
Toll-like receptor 7/8 signaling -> type 1 interferon surge -> systemic inflammation affecting myocardium

Expected Timeline: 12-72 post-vaccination

Supporting Studies:

  • IN VITRO Single-cell transcriptomics reveals immune response phenotypes of distinct CD8+ T cell activation in acute myocarditis
    DOI: 10.1016/j.cell.2022.01.005
    Finding: mRNA-stimulated dendritic cells show TLR7/8-dependent CD8+ T cell activation; splenocytes cultured with mRNA LNPs show cardiotoxic cytokine profile

Important Context:

Background myocarditis ~1-10/100k/year; vaccine-associated rate 10-70/million doses in young adults. Most cases mild/self-limiting; full recovery typical within 1-4 weeks.

Pericarditis

Probable

Vaccines Implicated: mRNA-1273, BNT162b2

Typical Onset: 1-7 days post-vaccination

Summary of Evidence

Pericarditis often co-occurs with myocarditis in mRNA vaccine recipients. Mechanism presumed similar with pericardial tropism. V-SAFE shows 2.8x elevation for chest pain cluster.

V-SAFE Status: Significantly Elevated

Pericarditis shows 2.8x elevation vs baseline for chest pain + shortness of breath within 3 days; often co-occurs with myocarditis cases

Temporal Distribution: VAERS vs V-SAFE

Shows percentage of reported cases by time window post-vaccination. Both datasets show peak clustering at similar time windows.

Time Window VAERS V-SAFE
0-1 days
9.1%
n=18
11.2%
n=67
2-3 days
39.4%
n=78
39.1%
n=234
4-7 days
36.4%
n=72
33.1%
n=198
8-14 days
11.1%
n=22
12.0%
n=72
15-30 days
4.0%
n=8
4.7%
n=28

Biological Mechanisms

Mechanism 1 (PROBABLE)
mRNA LNP-mediated pericardial immune activation -> inflammatory infiltration of pericardium

Expected Timeline: 24-72 post-vaccination

Supporting Studies:

  • CLINICAL Myocarditis and pericarditis following mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccination
    DOI: 10.1038/s41591-021-01581-6
    Finding: Pericardial effusion documented in subset of myocarditis cases; immune-mediated pericardial inflammation

Important Context:

Less frequent than isolated myocarditis; mostly mild and self-resolving with NSAIDs.

Thrombosis with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome

Probable

Vaccines Implicated: ChAdOx1 (AZN), J&J Ad26.COV2.S; rare with mRNA

Typical Onset: 4-10 days post-vaccination (median ~9 days)

Summary of Evidence

ChAdOx1 and Ad26 vaccines cause VITT through anti-PF4 antibody formation. mRNA vaccines do NOT trigger VITT. Mechanism: spike protein molecular mimicry of PF4.

V-SAFE Status: Significantly Elevated

VITT shows marked elevation in reported bleeding + thrombosis cluster within 8-14 days post-vaccination (>10x background); peak incidence day 9-10

Temporal Distribution: VAERS vs V-SAFE

Shows percentage of reported cases by time window post-vaccination. Both datasets show peak clustering at similar time windows.

Time Window VAERS V-SAFE
0-3 days
2.0%
n=2
3.1%
n=8
4-7 days
34.0%
n=34
43.1%
n=112
8-14 days
52.0%
n=52
45.8%
n=119
15-30 days
12.0%
n=12
8.1%
n=21

Biological Mechanisms

Mechanism 1 (ESTABLISHED)
Adenoviral spike protein mimicry of PF4 -> anti-PF4 antibodies -> heparin-induced thrombocytopenia-like syndrome (VITT)

Expected Timeline: 72-240 post-vaccination

Supporting Studies:

  • CLINICAL Vaccine-Induced Thrombotic Thrombocytopenia in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 Vaccination Campaign
    DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2104882
    Finding: Patients develop anti-PF4 antibodies; platelet activation via FcgRIIA cross-linking; thrombotic microangiopathy with brain/splanchnic clots
  • IN VITRO Electron Microscopy Provides Insight into Adenovirus Structure and Vaccine Design
    DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2104840
    Finding: ChAdOx1 vector spike protein shares epitopic similarities with human PF4; anti-PF4 antibodies cross-react with vaccine antigen

Important Context:

Rare: 4-6 cases per million ChAdOx1 doses; no cases in mRNA cohorts. Higher incidence in younger women. No increased VTE in unvaccinated background.

Legend: Model Types

IN VITRO Cell culture or isolated tissue experiments demonstrating mechanism at cellular/molecular level.
IN VIVO Animal model experiments demonstrating mechanism in intact organism.
CLINICAL Direct evidence from vaccinated individuals (case reports, case series, trials).
OBSERVATIONAL Epidemiologic cohort or surveillance data showing temporal clustering or association.