Data candidate records 2026-07-10 · registry extract 2026-07-10 · model built 2026-10-24 Model and sources · Pipeline dashboard · Corrections

Vaccine pipeline: progress and adoption outlook

320 candidates · model 2026-10-24

216 active candidates placed on one ladder, tracked in seven regulatory systems, with scenario windows for licensing and routine use where the review targets are published.

0
Preclinical
Laboratory and animal studies; no human dosing yet.
28
Phase 1
First human studies: safety and dose, usually tens of volunteers.
0
Phase 1/2
Combined safety and immune-response study.
40
Phase 2
Immune response and safety in hundreds; dose and schedule chosen.
0
Phase 2/3
Seamless design that continues into efficacy testing.
102
Phase 3
Efficacy or immunobridging in thousands; the licensing dataset.
2
Submitted to a regulator
Biologics licence or marketing application filed in at least one jurisdiction.
0
Under regulatory review
Application accepted and being assessed.
44
Approved / authorised
Licence or authorisation granted in at least one jurisdiction.
104
Discontinued
Most programmes stop before licensure; they stay listed.

Every candidate in the pipeline dashboard is placed on one fixed ladder, from preclinical work to a routine-use recommendation, and given a status in each of seven regulatory systems. For the United States, the European Union and Canada, whose review targets are published, each candidate also gets three scenario windows (fast, typical, slow) for the next submission, the regulator's decision and the earliest routine use. The United Kingdom, Australia, Japan and WHO prequalification are tracked for status only until their targets can be verified from an official page. Every parameter and its source is in the model table; the numbers are scenario arithmetic, not forecasts.

Reading a window: 2029-03 with 2028-06 to 2030-11 beneath means the typical scenario lands in March 2029 and the fast and slow scenarios bracket it. Programmes stop at every stage: of vaccine programmes entering development in 1998–2009, about 6% reached the market (Pronker 2013). A band says when adoption could happen if the programme succeeds, not whether it will.

Active candidates

Active vaccine candidates with stage, progress and typical earliest routine-use window by jurisdiction
CandidateStage and progressUS routine use (typical, band)EU routine useCanada routine useInput grade
CYFENDUSEmergent BioSolutions · Anthrax · See FDA product page / labelApproved / authorised—2028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
Ixchiq (VLA1553 / Chikungunya live-attenuated vaccine)Valneva · Chikungunya · Live attenuatedApproved / authorised———A · regulator-dated
Chikungunya Vaccine, RecombinantSee FDA listing · Chikungunya · Licensed biologic (see FDA product page)Approved / authorised2027-012026-10–2027-062028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
Ixchiq (VLA1553 / Chikungunya live-attenuated vaccine)Valneva Austria GmbH · Chikungunya · See FDA product page / labelApproved / authorised———A · regulator-dated
VIMKUNYASee FDA listing · Chikungunya · Licensed biologic (see FDA product page)Approved / authorised—2028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
Ixchiq (VLA1553 / Chikungunya live-attenuated vaccine)Valneva Austria GmbH · Chikungunya · Biological (unspecified platform)Approved / authorised———A · regulator-dated
COMIRNATYPfizer-BioNTech · COVID-19 · See FDA product page / labelApproved / authorised—2028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
COVID-19 Vaccine, AdjuvantedSee FDA listing · COVID-19 · Licensed biologic (see FDA product page)Approved / authorised2027-012026-10–2027-062028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
COVID-19 Vaccine, mRNASee FDA listing · COVID-19 · Licensed biologic (see FDA product page)Approved / authorised2027-012026-10–2027-062028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
MNEXSPIKESee FDA listing · COVID-19 · Licensed biologic (see FDA product page)Approved / authorised—2028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
NUVAXOVIDNovavax, Inc. · COVID-19 · See FDA product page / labelApproved / authorised—2028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
SPIKEVAXModernaTX, Inc. · COVID-19 · See FDA product page / labelApproved / authorised—2028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
Dengue Tetravalent Vaccine, LiveSee FDA listing · Dengue · Licensed biologic (see FDA product page)Approved / authorised2027-012026-10–2027-062028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
VAXELISMCM Vaccine Company · Diphtheria / Tetanus / Pertussis / Polio / Hib / HepB · See FDA product page / labelApproved / authorised—2028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
Ebola Zaire Vaccine, LiveSee FDA listing · Ebola · Licensed biologic (see FDA product page)Approved / authorised2027-012026-10–2027-062028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
Hepatitis B Vaccine (Recombinant)See FDA listing · Hepatitis B · Licensed biologic (see FDA product page)Approved / authorised2027-012026-10–2027-062028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
Hepatitis B Vaccine (Recombinant), AdjuvantedSee FDA listing · Hepatitis B · Licensed biologic (see FDA product page)Approved / authorised2027-012026-10–2027-062028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
Human Papillomavirus 9-valent Vaccine, RecombinantSee FDA listing · HPV · Licensed biologic (see FDA product page)Approved / authorised2027-012026-10–2027-062028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
Influenza A (H5N1) Monovalent Vaccine, AdjuvantedSee FDA listing · Influenza · Licensed biologic (see FDA product page)Approved / authorised2027-012026-10–2027-062028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
Influenza VaccineSee FDA listing · Influenza · Licensed biologic (see FDA product page)Approved / authorised2027-012026-10–2027-062028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
Influenza Vaccine (Quadrivalent)See FDA listing · Influenza · Licensed biologic (see FDA product page)Approved / authorised2027-012026-10–2027-062028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
Influenza Vaccine (Trivalent)See FDA listing · Influenza · Licensed biologic (see FDA product page)Approved / authorised2027-012026-10–2027-062028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
Influenza Vaccine, AdjuvantedSee FDA listing · Influenza · Licensed biologic (see FDA product page)Approved / authorised2027-012026-10–2027-062028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
Influenza Virus Vaccine(Trivalent, Types A and B)See FDA listing · Influenza · Licensed biologic (see FDA product page)Approved / authorised2027-012026-10–2027-062028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
Measles, Mumps and Rubella Vaccine, LiveSee FDA listing · Measles / Mumps / Rubella · Licensed biologic (see FDA product page)Approved / authorised2027-012026-10–2027-062028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
PRIORIXGlaxoSmithKline Biologicals · Measles / Mumps / Rubella · See FDA product page / labelApproved / authorised—2028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
Diphtheria and Tetanus Toxoids and Acellular Pertussis Adsorbed, Inactivated Poliovirus, Haemophilus b Conjugate [MeningSee FDA listing · Meningococcal disease · Licensed biologic (see FDA product page)Approved / authorised2027-012026-10–2027-062028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
Meningococcal Group B VaccineSee FDA listing · Meningococcal disease · Licensed biologic (see FDA product page)Approved / authorised2027-012026-10–2027-062028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
Meningococcal Groups A, B, C, W, and Y VaccineSee FDA listing · Meningococcal disease · Licensed biologic (see FDA product page)Approved / authorised2027-012026-10–2027-062028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
PENBRAYASee FDA listing · Meningococcal disease · Licensed biologic (see FDA product page)Approved / authorised—2028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
PENMENVYSee FDA listing · Meningococcal disease · Licensed biologic (see FDA product page)Approved / authorised—2028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
Smallpox and Monkeypox Vaccine, Live, Non-ReplicatingSee FDA listing · Mpox / Smallpox · Licensed biologic (see FDA product page)Approved / authorised2027-012026-10–2027-062028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
CAPVAXIVESee FDA listing · Pneumococcal disease · Licensed biologic (see FDA product page)Approved / authorised—2028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
Pneumococcal 15-valent Conjugate VaccineSee FDA listing · Pneumococcal disease · Licensed biologic (see FDA product page)Approved / authorised2027-012026-10–2027-062028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
Pneumococcal 20-valent Conjugate VaccineSee FDA listing · Pneumococcal disease · Licensed biologic (see FDA product page)Approved / authorised2027-012026-10–2027-062028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
Pneumococcal 21-valent Conjugate VaccineSee FDA listing · Pneumococcal disease · Licensed biologic (see FDA product page)Approved / authorised2027-012026-10–2027-062028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
mRNA-1345 (mRESVIA context / next-gen RSV programs)Moderna · RSV · mRNAApproved / authorised—2028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
ABRYSVOPfizer Inc. · RSV · See FDA product page / labelApproved / authorised—2028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
AREXVYGlaxoSmithKline Biologicals · RSV · See FDA product page / labelApproved / authorised—2028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
Respiratory Syncytial Virus VaccineSee FDA listing · RSV · Licensed biologic (see FDA product page)Approved / authorised2027-012026-10–2027-062028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccine, AdjuvantedSee FDA listing · RSV · Licensed biologic (see FDA product page)Approved / authorised2027-012026-10–2027-062028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
mRESVIAModernaTX, Inc. · RSV · See FDA product page / labelApproved / authorised—2028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
mRESVIA (mRNA-1345 / RSV vaccine)ModernaTX, Inc. · RSV · mRNAApproved / authorised———A · regulator-dated
Zoster Vaccine Recombinant, AdjuvantedSee FDA listing · Varicella / Zoster · Licensed biologic (see FDA product page)Approved / authorised2027-012026-10–2027-062028-062027-08–2029-122027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
mRNA-1010Moderna · Seasonal influenza · mRNASubmitted to a regulator2027-022026-11–2027-122027-092026-11–2029-032027-032026-12–2028-04B · company-dated
mRNA-1083 (Moderna Combined Influenza + COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine)Moderna · Seasonal influenza + COVID-19 (combination) · mRNASubmitted to a regulator2027-042026-11–2028-032027-072026-12–2029-012027-122027-05–2029-01A · regulator-dated
Pneumococcal VaccineUniversity of Sao Paulo General Hospital · Autoimmune Rheumatologic Disease · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-102027-09–2030-052029-052028-01–2031-082028-112027-10–2030-09C · registry only
Placebo boosterBavarian Nordic · Chikungunya · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32030-022029-01–2031-092030-092029-05–2032-122030-032029-02–2032-01C · registry only
C.difficile vaccinePfizer · Clostridioides Difficile Associated Disease · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32030-102029-09–2032-052031-052030-01–2033-082030-112029-10–2032-09C · registry only
mRNA-1647ModernaTX, Inc. · CMV · mRNAPhase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
mRNA-1273 Variant-containing FormulationModernaTX, Inc. · COVID-19 · mRNAPhase 32028-102027-09–2030-052029-052028-01–2031-082028-112027-10–2030-09C · registry only
Moderna COVID-19 VaccineWell- Konnect Healthcare Services and Research Firm · COVID-19 · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32032-072031-06–2034-022033-022031-10–2035-052032-082031-07–2034-06C · registry only
mRNA-1273 (Moderna COVID-19 vaccine)Tor Biering-Sørensen · COVID-19 · mRNAPhase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
mRNA-1273ModernaTX, Inc. · COVID-19 · mRNAPhase 32029-042028-03–2030-112029-112028-07–2032-022029-052028-04–2031-03C · registry only
NVX-CoV2705Novavax · COVID-19 · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-092027-08–2030-042029-042027-12–2031-072028-102027-09–2030-08C · registry only
Bivalent BNT162b2 (original/Omicron BA.4/BA.5) 3 microgram doseBioNTech SE · COVID-19 · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
Moderna Bivalent mRNA vaccineMonash University · COVID-19 · mRNAPhase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
NovavaxMurdoch Childrens Research Institute · COVID-19 · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
BNT162b2 VaccineBioNTech SE · COVID-19 · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
BNT162b2 (2025/2026 formulation)BioNTech SE · COVID-19 · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
TDVTakeda · Dengue · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32029-022028-01–2030-092029-092028-05–2031-122029-032028-02–2031-01C · registry only
V181Merck Sharp & Dohme LLC · Dengue · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32033-082032-07–2035-032034-032032-11–2036-062033-092032-08–2035-07C · registry only
Tetravalent Dengue Vaccine (TDV)Takeda · Dengue · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
Diphtheria,Tetanus and Acellular Pertussis Combined Vaccine,DTaPCanSino Biologics Inc. · Diphtheria / Tetanus / Pertussis · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
23-valent Pneumococcal Polysaccharide Vaccine (PPV23)CanSino Biologics Inc. · Diphtheria / Tetanus / Pertussis · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
dTpaGlaxoSmithKline · Diphtheria / Tetanus / Pertussis · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-102027-09–2030-052029-052028-01–2031-082028-112027-10–2030-09C · registry only
dTpa vaccineGlaxoSmithKline · Diphtheria / Tetanus / Pertussis · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
Adacel® vaccineMahidol University · Diphtheria / Tetanus / Pertussis · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
Vaccine administrationWomen and Infants Hospital of Rhode Island · Diphtheria / Tetanus / Pertussis · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
MCV4CanSino Biologics Inc. · Epidemic Meningitis · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
Enterovirus Type 71 Vaccine (Vero Cell), InactivatedSinovac Biotech Co., Ltd · Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease(HFMD) · InactivatedPhase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
Healive (hepatitis A vacine(human diploid cell), inactivated)Sinovac Biotech Co., Ltd · Hepatitis A · InactivatedPhase 32030-012028-12–2031-082030-082029-04–2032-112030-022029-01–2031-12C · registry only
Heplisav-B Injectable Product, 2-dose regimenMercy Medical Center · Hepatitis B · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32030-102029-09–2032-052031-052030-01–2033-082030-112029-10–2032-09C · registry only
Prophylactic quadrivalent HPV vaccine Merck (Gardasil®)Partha Basu · HPV · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
BNT113BioNTech SE · HPV · Protein / subunitPhase 32031-022030-01–2032-092031-092030-05–2033-122031-032030-02–2033-01C · registry only
2 doses of vaccine Quadrivalent Recombinant Human Papillomavirus Vaccine (Hansenulapolymorpha)National Vaccine and Serum Institute, China · HPV · Protein / subunitPhase 32034-052033-04–2035-122034-122033-08–2037-032034-062033-05–2036-04C · registry only
Cervavac as two dose regimenSerum Institute of India Pvt. Ltd. · HPV · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-102027-09–2030-052029-052028-01–2031-082028-112027-10–2030-09C · registry only
Gardasil-9Emory University · HPV · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
HPV vaccineUniversity of Washington · HPV · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-102027-09–2030-052029-052028-01–2031-082028-112027-10–2030-09C · registry only
Recombinant Human Papillomavirus Bivalent VaccineNational Cancer Institute (NCI) · HPV · Protein / subunitPhase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
HPV nonavalent vaccine (Gardasil-9)Canadian Immunization Research Network · HPV · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
human papillomavirus vaccine, recombinantLouisiana State University Health Sciences Center in New Orleans · HPV · Protein / subunitPhase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
Nonavalent HPV vaccine (9vHPV/Gardasil-9™).Miquel Angel Pavon Ribas · HPV · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-102027-09–2030-052029-052028-01–2031-082028-112027-10–2030-09C · registry only
9-valent HPV vaccine (Cecolin 9)Xiamen Innovax Biotech Co., Ltd · HPV · Protein / subunitPhase 32028-122027-11–2030-072029-072028-03–2031-102029-012027-12–2030-11C · registry only
Nonavalent HPV vaccineUniversity of British Columbia · HPV · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
9-valent HPV vaccine, 3 doses standard timingThe University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston · HPV · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
Gardasil9Miriam Elfström · HPV · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
Vaxigrip Tetra Sanofi Pasteur EuropeAarhus University Hospital · Influenza · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
H5N1 vaccine (Arepanrix, GSK)University Health Network, Toronto · Influenza · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
mRNA-1018-H5ModernaTX, Inc. · Influenza · mRNAPhase 32028-112027-10–2030-062029-062028-02–2031-092028-122027-11–2030-10C · registry only
Vaxigrip QIVSinovac Biotech Co., Ltd · Influenza · InactivatedPhase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
Influenza vaccinationWroclaw Medical University · Influenza · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
LAIV nasal vaccine is chosen as a model viral infectionUniversity of North Carolina, Chapel Hill · Influenza · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32030-102029-09–2032-052031-052030-01–2033-082030-112029-10–2032-09C · registry only
FluMistWashington University School of Medicine · Influenza · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
Seasonal influenza vaccineUniversity of Pennsylvania · Influenza · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32029-022028-01–2030-092029-092028-05–2031-122029-032028-02–2031-01C · registry only
VAX-31 (adult)Vaxcyte · Invasive pneumococcal disease (31-valent conjugate) · Conjugate vaccinePhase 32028-102027-09–2030-052029-052028-01–2031-082028-112027-10–2030-09B · company-dated
VLA15Valneva / Pfizer · Lyme disease · Protein subunit (OspA)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07B · company-dated
Varicella VaccineSinovac (Dalian) Vaccine Technology Co., Ltd. · Measles / Mumps / Rubella · Live attenuatedPhase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
MMRVGlaxoSmithKline · Measles / Mumps / Rubella · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32029-122028-11–2031-072030-072029-03–2032-102030-012028-12–2031-11C · registry only
BCG vaccineBandim Health Project · Measles / Mumps / Rubella · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
Measles-Mumps-Rubella vaccine (MMR)Laure Pittet, MD-PhD · Measles / Mumps / Rubella · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
rMenB+OMV NZGlaxoSmithKline · Meningococcal disease · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
experimental vaccineSinovac Biotech Co., Ltd · Meningococcal disease · Conjugate vaccinePhase 32028-092027-08–2030-042029-042027-12–2031-072028-102027-09–2030-08C · registry only
batch 2 of MCV4CanSino Biologics Inc. · Meningococcal disease · Conjugate vaccinePhase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
MenAC conjugate vaccineSanofi · Meningococcal disease · Conjugate vaccinePhase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
Meningococcal Polysaccharide (Serogroups A, C, W, and Y) Tetanus Toxoid Conjugate VaccineSanofi Pasteur, a Sanofi Company · Meningococcal disease · Conjugate vaccinePhase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
Serogroup B meningococal vaccineUniversity Ghent · Meningococcal disease · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
TrumenbaEmory University · Meningococcal disease · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-102027-09–2030-052029-052028-01–2031-082028-112027-10–2030-09C · registry only
mRNA-1403ModernaTX, Inc. · Norovirus · mRNAPhase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
9vHPV vaccineMerck Sharp & Dohme LLC · Papillomavirus Infections · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32029-062028-05–2031-012030-012028-09–2032-042029-072028-06–2031-05C · registry only
RotarixSanofi · Pneumococcal disease · Conjugate vaccinePhase 32029-042028-03–2030-112029-112028-07–2032-022029-052028-04–2031-03C · registry only
PG4Pfizer · Pneumococcal disease · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32029-032028-02–2030-102029-102028-06–2032-012029-042028-03–2031-02C · registry only
PCV20Vaxcyte, Inc. · Pneumococcal disease · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-112027-10–2030-062029-062028-02–2031-092028-122027-11–2030-10C · registry only
Prevnar®Sinovac Life Sciences Co., Ltd. · Pneumococcal disease · Conjugate vaccinePhase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
PCV13iCanSino Biologics Inc. · Pneumococcal disease · Conjugate vaccinePhase 32028-122027-11–2030-072029-072028-03–2031-102029-012027-12–2030-11C · registry only
PCV21Sanofi · Pneumococcal disease · Conjugate vaccinePhase 32028-112027-10–2030-062029-062028-02–2031-092028-122027-11–2030-10C · registry only
Pfizer PCV13Walvax Biotechnology Co., Ltd. · Pneumococcal disease · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
RotaTeqSanofi Pasteur, a Sanofi Company · Pneumococcal disease · Conjugate vaccinePhase 32029-032028-02–2030-102029-102028-06–2032-012029-042028-03–2031-02C · registry only
PREVENAR20Poitiers University Hospital · Pneumococcal disease · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32030-042029-03–2031-112030-112029-07–2033-022030-052029-04–2032-03C · registry only
Early interventionCentre Hospitalier Universitaire de Saint Etienne · Pneumococcal disease · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32030-082029-07–2032-032031-032029-11–2033-062030-092029-08–2032-07C · registry only
PCV15University of Oxford · Pneumococcal disease · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
sIPVSinovac Biotech Co., Ltd · Polio · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
3wIPVSinovac Biotech Co., Ltd · Polio · InactivatedPhase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
Verorab®Sinovac Biotech Co., Ltd · Rabies · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
Sinovac rabies vaccineSinovac Biotech Co., Ltd · Rabies · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
OfatumumabNovartis Pharmaceuticals · Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32030-072029-06–2032-022031-022029-10–2033-052030-082029-07–2032-06C · registry only
ROTAVAC 5DBharat Biotech International Limited · Rotavirus · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
RSV vaccination (Arexvy, GlaxoSmithKline)Chinese University of Hong Kong · RSV · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32032-042031-03–2033-112032-112031-07–2035-022032-052031-04–2034-03C · registry only
Moderna RSV vaccineEmory University · RSV · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
RSVpreFPfizer · RSV · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
PlaceboGlaxoSmithKline · RSV · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
RSVPreF3 OA investigational vaccineGlaxoSmithKline · RSV · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
RSV VaccineCanadian Immunization Research Network · RSV · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
Influenza + COVID combination candidates (Pfizer/BioNTech family)Pfizer / BioNTech · Seasonal influenza + COVID-19 (combination) · mRNAPhase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
COVID-Influenza Combination (CIC) — NovavaxNovavax · Seasonal influenza + COVID-19 (combination) · Protein nanoparticle + Matrix-MPhase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07B · company-dated
Durvalumab (MEDI4736)AstraZeneca · Tuberculosis · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
BCGMerck Sharp & Dohme LLC · Tuberculosis · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
Recombinant zoster vaccineGlaxoSmithKline · Varicella / Zoster · Protein / subunitPhase 32032-022031-01–2033-092032-092031-05–2034-122032-032031-02–2034-01C · registry only
Live Attenuated Varicella VaccineSinovac (Dalian) Vaccine Technology Co., Ltd. · Varicella / Zoster · Live attenuatedPhase 32030-102029-09–2032-052031-052030-01–2033-082030-112029-10–2032-09C · registry only
Placebo (Freeze Dired Dilution)Sinovac (Dalian) Vaccine Technology Co., Ltd. · Varicella / Zoster · Live attenuatedPhase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
Marketed varicella vaccineGlaxoSmithKline · Varicella / Zoster · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-092027-08–2030-042029-042027-12–2031-072028-102027-09–2030-08C · registry only
Marketed varicella vaccine_Lot 1GlaxoSmithKline · Varicella / Zoster · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-102027-09–2030-052029-052028-01–2031-082028-112027-10–2030-09C · registry only
PROVARIXSinovac (Dalian) Vaccine Technology Co., Ltd. · Varicella / Zoster · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
HZ/su vaccineGlaxoSmithKline · Varicella / Zoster · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32029-062028-05–2031-012030-012028-09–2032-042029-072028-06–2031-05C · registry only
Recombinant Herpes Zoster Vaccine (Shingrix)Tor Biering-Sørensen · Varicella / Zoster · Protein / subunitPhase 32031-022030-01–2032-092031-092030-05–2033-122031-032030-02–2033-01C · registry only
Recombinant Zoster Vaccine (RZV)University of Sao Paulo General Hospital · Varicella / Zoster · Protein / subunitPhase 32029-052028-04–2030-122029-122028-08–2032-032029-062028-05–2031-04C · registry only
Yellow fever vaccine (live)Sanofi · Yellow fever · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
Yellow Fever vaccination (17 DD Biomanguinhos)Oswaldo Cruz Foundation · Yellow fever · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 32028-082027-07–2030-032029-032027-11–2031-062028-092027-08–2030-07C · registry only
Acne mRNA vaccineSanofi Pasteur, a Sanofi Company · Acne · mRNAPhase 22032-122030-08–2037-012033-072030-12–2038-042033-012030-09–2037-05C · registry only
Chlamydia mRNA VaccineSanofi · Chlamydia Trachomatis Immunization · mRNAPhase 22032-022029-10–2036-032032-092030-02–2037-062032-032029-11–2036-07C · registry only
C. difficile vaccine formulation 1.Pfizer · Clostridoides Difficile Associated Disease · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 22035-072033-03–2039-082036-022033-07–2040-112035-082033-04–2039-12C · registry only
MenveoGlaxoSmithKline · Diarrhoea · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 22032-112030-07–2036-122033-062030-11–2038-032032-122030-08–2037-04C · registry only
mRNA-1189ModernaTX, Inc. · EBV · mRNAPhase 22030-112028-07–2034-122031-062028-11–2036-032030-122028-08–2035-04C · registry only
MVA-BN-WEVBavarian Nordic · Encephalitis · Protein / subunitPhase 22031-032028-11–2035-042031-102029-03–2036-072031-042028-12–2035-08C · registry only
V540A-2Merck Sharp & Dohme LLC · Healthy · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 22032-052030-01–2036-062032-122030-05–2037-092032-062030-02–2036-10C · registry only
YF17D (Stamaril, Sanofi-Pasteur)Singapore General Hospital · Immune System Responses and Trained Immunity After AS01 Administration · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 22033-032030-11–2037-042033-102031-03–2038-072033-042030-12–2037-08C · registry only
zigakibartNovartis Pharmaceuticals · Immunoglobulin A Nephropathy (IgAN) · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 22034-082032-04–2038-092035-032032-08–2039-122034-092032-05–2039-01C · registry only
TIV1 or TIV2Pfizer · Influenza · mRNAPhase 22031-072029-03–2035-082032-022029-07–2036-112031-082029-04–2035-12C · registry only
Pandemic flu H5 HA mRNA SD2 vaccineSanofi · Influenza · mRNAPhase 22031-012028-09–2035-022031-082029-01–2036-052031-022028-10–2035-06C · registry only
AZD4117AstraZeneca · Influenza · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 22030-112028-07–2034-122031-062028-11–2036-032030-122028-08–2035-04C · registry only
Flu mRNA(Formulation A)GlaxoSmithKline · Influenza · mRNAPhase 22030-112028-07–2034-122031-062028-11–2036-032030-122028-08–2035-04C · registry only
mRNA-1982ModernaTX, Inc. · Lyme disease · mRNAPhase 22032-122030-08–2037-012033-072030-12–2038-042033-012030-09–2037-05C · registry only
RTS,S/AS01E vaccineGlaxoSmithKline · Malaria · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 22031-052029-01–2035-062031-122029-05–2036-092031-062029-02–2035-10C · registry only
RABIVAX-SSerum Institute of India Pvt. Ltd. · Malaria · Protein / subunitPhase 22031-122029-08–2036-012032-072029-12–2037-042032-012029-09–2036-05C · registry only
mRNA-4157ModernaTX, Inc. · Melanoma · mRNAPhase 22036-122034-08–2041-012037-072034-12–2042-042037-012034-09–2041-05C · registry only
MenACYW conjugate vaccineSanofi Pasteur, a Sanofi Company · Meningococcal disease · Conjugate vaccinePhase 22031-062029-02–2035-072032-012029-06–2036-102031-072029-03–2035-11C · registry only
BNT166aBioNTech SE · Mpox · mRNAPhase 22031-072029-03–2035-082032-022029-07–2036-112031-082029-04–2035-12C · registry only
JynneosBavarian Nordic · Mpox · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 22030-122028-08–2035-012031-072028-12–2036-042031-012028-09–2035-05C · registry only
mRNA-1195ModernaTX, Inc. · Multiple Sclerosis · mRNAPhase 22033-022030-10–2037-032033-092031-02–2038-062033-032030-11–2037-07C · registry only
PCV24 vaccine (dose H)CanSino Biologics Inc. · Pneumococcal disease · Conjugate vaccinePhase 22030-122028-08–2035-012031-072028-12–2036-042031-012028-09–2035-05C · registry only
0.5 mL of the low dose VAX-31Vaxcyte, Inc. · Pneumococcal disease · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 22032-012029-09–2036-022032-082030-01–2037-052032-022029-10–2036-06C · registry only
VLP-Polio medium doseCanSino Biologics Inc. · Polio · Virus-like particlePhase 22030-112028-07–2034-122031-062028-11–2036-032030-122028-08–2035-04C · registry only
rF1V-1018Dynavax Technologies Corporation · Prevention of Pneumonic Plague Resulting From Aerosol Exposure to Yersinia Pestis · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 22031-022028-10–2035-032031-092029-02–2036-062031-032028-11–2035-07C · registry only
Oral hexavalent reassortant rotavirus attenuated live vaccineSinovac Life Sciences Co., Ltd. · Rotavirus · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 22030-112028-07–2034-122031-062028-11–2036-032030-122028-08–2035-04C · registry only
hMPV_Y low dose vaccineGlaxoSmithKline · RSV · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 22033-052031-01–2037-062033-122031-05–2038-092033-062031-02–2037-10C · registry only
Adjuvanted RSVPreF3 vaccineGlaxoSmithKline · RSV · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 22031-022028-10–2035-032031-092029-02–2036-062031-032028-11–2035-07C · registry only
Licensed RSV VaccineSanofi Pasteur, a Sanofi Company · RSV · mRNAPhase 22031-022028-10–2035-032031-092029-02–2036-062031-032028-11–2035-07C · registry only
Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA COVID-19 vaccineUniversity of Florida · Stage 4 NSCLC · mRNAPhase 22039-042036-12–2043-052039-112037-04–2044-082039-052037-01–2043-09C · registry only
MTBVACBharat Biotech International Limited · Tuberculosis · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 22030-112028-07–2034-122031-062028-11–2036-032030-122028-08–2035-04C · registry only
BNT164a1BioNTech SE · Tuberculosis · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 22030-112028-07–2034-122031-062028-11–2036-032030-122028-08–2035-04C · registry only
TYPHIBEVGlaxoSmithKline · Typhoid · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 22032-052030-01–2036-062032-122030-05–2037-092032-062030-02–2036-10C · registry only
MenACWYGlaxoSmithKline · Typhoid · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 22030-112028-07–2034-122031-062028-11–2036-032030-122028-08–2035-04C · registry only
RSV vaccine (Pfizer Abrysvo)Central Adelaide Local Health Network Incorporated · Vaccine Immune Response · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 22030-112028-07–2034-122031-062028-11–2036-032030-122028-08–2035-04C · registry only
PED-HZ/suGlaxoSmithKline · Varicella / Zoster · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 22030-112028-07–2034-122031-062028-11–2036-032030-122028-08–2035-04C · registry only
Active-controlled vaccine ASinovac Biotech Co., Ltd · Varicella / Zoster · mRNAPhase 22030-112028-07–2034-122031-062028-11–2036-032030-122028-08–2035-04C · registry only
Z-1018Dynavax Technologies Corporation · Varicella / Zoster · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 22031-122029-08–2036-012032-072029-12–2037-042032-012029-09–2036-05C · registry only
mRNA-1468ModernaTX, Inc. · Varicella / Zoster · mRNAPhase 22030-112028-07–2034-122031-062028-11–2036-032030-122028-08–2035-04C · registry only
Yellow fever vaccineSanofi Pasteur, a Sanofi Company · Yellow fever · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 22030-112028-07–2034-122031-062028-11–2036-032030-122028-08–2035-04C · registry only
Licensed Seasonal Influenza VaccineGlaxoSmithKline · COVID-19 · mRNAPhase 12034-022030-01–2040-062034-092030-05–2041-092034-032030-02–2040-10C · registry only
COVID-19 Therapeutic Biologic Mix - NOVAVAX COVID-19 VACCINE plus BCG Vaccine Mix for percutaneous useHan Xu, M.D., Ph.D., FAPCR, Sponsor-Investigator, IRB Chair · COVID-19 · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 12034-012029-12–2040-052034-082030-04–2041-082034-022030-01–2040-09C · registry only
mRNA-1195.1ModernaTX, Inc. · EBV · mRNAPhase 12033-122029-11–2040-042034-072030-03–2041-072034-012029-12–2040-08C · registry only
BNT163BioNTech SE · Genital Herpes Simplex Type 2 · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 12033-122029-11–2040-042034-072030-03–2041-072034-012029-12–2040-08C · registry only
VAX-A1 LowVaxcyte, Inc. · Group A Streptococcal Infection · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 12035-022031-01–2041-062035-092031-05–2042-092035-032031-02–2041-10C · registry only
V350AMerck Sharp & Dohme LLC · Healthy · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 12035-092031-08–2042-012036-042031-12–2043-042035-102031-09–2042-05C · registry only
V118EMerck Sharp & Dohme LLC · Healthy · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 12035-012030-12–2041-052035-082031-04–2042-082035-022031-01–2041-09C · registry only
V540DMerck Sharp & Dohme LLC · Healthy · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 12034-012029-12–2040-052034-082030-04–2041-082034-022030-01–2040-09C · registry only
V540BMerck Sharp & Dohme LLC · Healthy · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 12034-012029-12–2040-052034-082030-04–2041-082034-022030-01–2040-09C · registry only
Fluzone HD influenza vaccineCidara Therapeutics Inc., a subsidiary of Merck & Co., Inc. (Rahway, New Jersey USA) · Healthy Participants · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 12034-022030-01–2040-062034-092030-05–2041-092034-032030-02–2040-10C · registry only
H5 Flu IMP 2Sanofi · Influenza · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 12034-062030-05–2040-102035-012030-09–2042-012034-072030-06–2041-02C · registry only
DTcP-Hib-MCV4CanSino Biologics Inc. · Influenza · Conjugate vaccinePhase 12036-042032-03–2042-082036-112032-07–2043-112036-052032-04–2042-12C · registry only
Haemophilus Influenzae Type b Conjugate VaccineCanSino Biologics Inc. · Influenza · Conjugate vaccinePhase 12033-122029-11–2040-042034-072030-03–2041-072034-012029-12–2040-08C · registry only
DurvalumabAstraZeneca · Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 12034-082030-07–2040-122035-032030-11–2042-032034-092030-08–2041-04C · registry only
low-dose Group ACYW135X Meningococcal Conjugate VaccineSinovac Life Sciences Co., Ltd. · Meningococcal disease · Conjugate vaccinePhase 12033-122029-11–2040-042034-072030-03–2041-072034-012029-12–2040-08C · registry only
BNT116BioNTech SE · Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 12037-042033-03–2043-082037-112033-07–2044-112037-052033-04–2043-12C · registry only
Pn-MAPS30plusGlaxoSmithKline · Pneumococcal disease · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 12034-022030-01–2040-062034-092030-05–2041-092034-032030-02–2040-10C · registry only
V118C (Stage 1)Merck Sharp & Dohme LLC · Pneumococcal disease · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 12035-122031-11–2042-042036-072032-03–2043-072036-012031-12–2042-08C · registry only
PG4 in Buffer 1 with low dose PA-002Pfizer · Pneumococcal disease · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 12034-122030-11–2041-042035-072031-03–2042-072035-012030-12–2041-08C · registry only
20vPnCPfizer · Pneumococcal disease · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 12034-072030-06–2040-112035-022030-10–2042-022034-082030-07–2041-03C · registry only
Recombinant Poliomyelitis Vaccine (rPV)Serum Institute of India Pvt. Ltd. · Polio · Protein / subunitPhase 12034-012029-12–2040-052034-082030-04–2041-082034-022030-01–2040-09C · registry only
Low-dose RSV mRNA vaccineSinovac Biotech Co., Ltd · RSV · mRNAPhase 12033-122029-11–2040-042034-072030-03–2041-072034-012029-12–2040-08C · registry only
bivalent (RSV/hMPV) unlicensed comparatorSanofi · RSV · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 12033-122029-11–2040-042034-072030-03–2041-072034-012029-12–2040-08C · registry only
VXB-241 240 mcgSanofi · RSV · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 12033-122029-11–2040-042034-072030-03–2041-072034-012029-12–2040-08C · registry only
Investigational RSV vaccine 1GlaxoSmithKline · RSV · mRNAPhase 12033-122029-11–2040-042034-072030-03–2041-072034-012029-12–2040-08C · registry only
Typhoid Vi conjugate vaccineGlaxoSmithKline · Salmonella Infections · Conjugate vaccinePhase 12035-012030-12–2041-052035-082031-04–2042-082035-022031-01–2041-09C · registry only
CLDN6 CAR-TBioNTech Cell & Gene Therapies GmbH · Solid Tumor · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 12035-102031-09–2042-022036-052032-01–2043-052035-112031-10–2042-06C · registry only
Low dose Strep A AlumGlaxoSmithKline · Streptococcal Infections · Biological (unspecified platform)Phase 12034-012029-12–2040-052034-082030-04–2041-082034-022030-01–2040-09C · registry only

Discontinued and withdrawn programmes (104) are kept on the dashboard and on their own pages with the stage at which they stopped; they are not projected. Download: adoption_outlook.json · adoption_model.json.

The ladder

Stage ladder
StageGroupProgressMeaning
Preclinicalclinical5%Laboratory and animal studies; no human dosing yet.
Phase 1clinical15%First human studies: safety and dose, usually tens of volunteers.
Phase 1/2clinical25%Combined safety and immune-response study.
Phase 2clinical35%Immune response and safety in hundreds; dose and schedule chosen.
Phase 2/3clinical45%Seamless design that continues into efficacy testing.
Phase 3clinical60%Efficacy or immunobridging in thousands; the licensing dataset.
Submitted to a regulatorregulatory75%Biologics licence or marketing application filed in at least one jurisdiction.
Under regulatory reviewregulatory80%Application accepted and being assessed.
Approved / authorisedregulatory90%Licence or authorisation granted in at least one jurisdiction.
Recommended for routine useadoption100%A national advisory body (ACIP, JCVI, STIKO, NACI, ATAGI...) has issued a use recommendation.
Discontinued / withdrawn / suspendedterminal—Kept visible with the stage at which the programme stopped. A licence can also be restricted or suspended after approval; that is recorded as a status, not hidden.

Progress percentages are fixed positions chosen so that the clinical half of the ladder and the regulatory-plus-adoption half each span roughly half the bar; they are not probabilities and do not shrink for programmes that are struggling.

Model parameters and sources

Duration parameters in months with fast, typical and slow values and their source
StepFast (mo)Typical (mo)Slow (mo)Basis and source
Phase 1 trial length12.023.042.2Registry-derived: 506 vaccine trials with start and primary-completion dates (first quartile, median, third quartile).
Phase 1/2 trial length13.02442.5Registry-derived: 237 vaccine trials with start and primary-completion dates (first quartile, median, third quartile).
Phase 2 trial length13.02846.0Registry-derived: 397 vaccine trials with start and primary-completion dates (first quartile, median, third quartile).
Phase 2/3 trial length9.021.529.8Registry-derived: 38 vaccine trials with start and primary-completion dates (first quartile, median, third quartile).
Phase 3 trial length9.01839.0Registry-derived: 251 vaccine trials with start and primary-completion dates (first quartile, median, third quartile).
Gap between phases, and Phase 3 to submission3918Stated assumption, not sourced.
United States: regulator review (FDA (CBER))61015performance goal: FDA, Priority Review. “A Priority Review designation means FDA's goal is to take action on an application within 6 months (compared to 10 months under standard review).” Slow band = 1.5 × the standard target to allow clock stops and resubmission (assumption).
United States: recommendation (ACIP (CDC))038CDC, ACIP meeting information. “The ACIP holds three regular meetings each year to review scientific data and vote on vaccine recommendations.” Three meetings a year implies a typical wait of up to four months for the next regular meeting; 2026 regular meetings were listed as cancelled because of litigation, so the slow band is wider.
European Union: regulator review (EMA (CHMP) and European Commission)71218procedural maximum plus EMA's own statement of the usual total: EMA, the evaluation of medicines step by step. “The assessment of a marketing authorisation application for a new medicine takes up to 210 'active' days. ... Overall, the assessment of a new medicine usually lasts around a year. ... The assessment time may be reduced to 150 days instead of 210 days, if the medicine developer is granted accelerated assessment.” Slow band = 1.5 × the standard target to allow clock stops and resubmission (assumption).
European Union: Commission decision after CHMP opinion222procedural maximum: EMA, obtaining an EU marketing authorisation step by step. “European Commission decision on the marketing authorisation ... When: Within 67 days of receipt of CHMP opinion”
European Union: recommendation (national bodies (STIKO, HAS, Folkhälsomyndigheten and others))1618EU recommendations are national; timing varies by country and is not sourced here. Band is a stated assumption.
Canada: regulator review (Health Canada)61015performance standard (300 calendar days standard, 180 priority; shown here as months): Health Canada, performance standards for drug submissions (Table 1: NAS review 300 days; priority 180 days). “The performance standard is the period from the date of acceptance to date of first decision not including any review clock pauses.” Slow band = 1.5 × the standard target to allow clock stops and resubmission (assumption).
Canada: recommendation (NACI)1412NACI publishes statements after Health Canada authorisation; cadence not sourced here.
United Kingdom: MHRA · JCVIno windowThe MHRA 150-day national assessment and International Recognition Procedure pages could not be fetched on 2026-10-24; no target is used. Recommender cadence: GOV.UK, Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation “JCVI holds 3 committee meetings a year, usually on the first Wednesday of February, June and October.”
Australia: TGA · ATAGIno windowTGA registration-timeframe pages timed out on 2026-10-24; no target is used.
Japan: PMDA / MHLW · MHLW immunisation subcommitteeno windowPMDA English pages reached on 2026-10-24 state that target review times exist but give no figure.
WHO prequalification: WHO Prequalification · SAGEno windowWHO prequalification procedure pages returned 404/500 on 2026-10-24; no target is used.

Whole-pipeline benchmark. Pronker ES et al. 2013, PLoS One, Risk in vaccine research and development quantified (PMID 23526951): “The average vaccine, taken from the preclinical phase, requires a development timeline of 10.71 years and has a market entry probability of 6%.” Projects in development 1998-2009. Used as the whole-pipeline benchmark against which the stage-by-stage bands below are sanity-checked; not used in the arithmetic.

Anchor and arithmetic. The anchor is the earliest dated readout in the record (company or registry), or today if there is none. Remaining phases are added using the registry trial lengths plus one gap per transition, then the review target, then the Commission lag where it applies, then the recommender wait. A candidate already filed starts from its filing date; one already approved starts from its approval date. Where a target date has passed with no decision in the record, the decision is treated as still pending and placed one, three or nine months out.

Input grade. A: Regulator-confirmed status date in at least one jurisdiction and record verified within 12 months. B: Company-estimated dates (filings, readouts) and record verified within 12 months. C: Stage known from the trial registry only; no jurisdiction-specific filing or decision date. D: Record not verified within 12 months, or status conflicts between sources. none: Discontinued or withdrawn: tracked, not projected.

Progress is a position on a fixed ladder, not a probability of success: historically about 6 in 100 vaccine programmes that enter development reach the market. Projected windows are scenario bands built from the parameters listed on this page, and the slow band is not an upper bound.

Cite this page. Vaccine pipeline: progress and adoption outlook. Vaccine Data Navigator, Open Source Medicine Foundation. Built 2026-10-24. https://vaccinedatanavigator.org/pipeline/adoption-outlook.html

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