Poliomyelitis Poliovirus (types 1, 2 and 3; wild and vaccine-derived)
Disease risks
Acute risks of the infection itself: complications, hospitalisation, ICU, death.
| Outcome (O) | Population (P) | Comparator | Estimate | Design (S) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paralytic cases per 100 infections, all serotypes severity: paralysis case definition: Median of 15 studies of the paralytic case:infection ratio | all ages vaccination status: unvaccinated country: multiple setting: review of prospective and serological studies period: pre-vaccine era All ages | 0.667 paralytic cases per 100 infections per 100 infections | systematic review | ebi.ac.ukquoteThe ratio of 0.667 paralytic cases per 100 infections is the median of values from the 15 studies cited in Table 9 ( 4 ). Table 1 footnote Equivalent to the overall ratio used in the serotype table; the WHO fact sheet's one-in-two-hundred figure is of the same order. | |
| Death from paralytic poliomyelitis in outbreaks affecting adolescents and adults severity: death case definition: Wild poliovirus outbreak cases, literature review 1996-2012 | adolescents and adults vaccination status: mixed country: multiple (Albania 1994 to Republic of Congo 2010) setting: outbreak period: 1996-2012 12-17y18-49y50-64y | 12 to 41 CFR (%) range across outbreaks per paralytic case | systematic review | Mach et al. 2014 J Infect DisquoteThe outbreaks among adolescents and adults were associated with higher case-fatality ratios, ranging from 12% in Albania in 1994 to 41% in the Republic of Congo in 2010. abstract, RESULTS Range, not a pooled estimate. Adult-dominated outbreaks in populations with immunity gaps carry much higher case fatality than childhood endemic disease. | |
| Paralytic cases from importation outbreaks severity: paralysis case definition: Wild poliovirus outbreak cases in previously polio-free areas | all ages (most outbreaks concentrated in under-5s) vaccination status: mixed country: multiple (39 countries) setting: outbreak period: 1996-2012 All ages | 4571 paralytic cases (count) across 22 outbreaks per 22 outbreaks, 1996-2012 | systematic review | Mach et al. 2014 J Infect DisquoteThese outbreaks caused 4571 cases, representing 21% of all cases reported during this period. abstract, RESULTS Represented 21% of all cases reported globally in the period. | |
| Asymptomatic poliovirus infection severity: asymptomatic case definition: Poliovirus infection in children as described by CDC | children vaccination status: not reported country: United States setting: expert summary of natural history period: pre-vaccine era natural history Infant <1y1-4y5-11y12-17y | 70 proportion of infections (%) per poliovirus infection | expert body | cdc.govquoteApproximately 70% of all polio infections in children are asymptomatic. Clinical Features Denominator is all infections, not cases. The remainder splits into minor illness, aseptic meningitis and paralysis (next records). | |
| Minor nonspecific illness without CNS invasion severity: mild case definition: Minor illness without clinical or laboratory evidence of central nervous system invasion | children vaccination status: not reported country: United States setting: expert summary of natural history period: pre-vaccine era natural history Infant <1y1-4y5-11y12-17y | 24 proportion of infections (%) per poliovirus infection | expert body | cdc.govquoteApproximately 24% of polio infections in children consist of a minor, nonspecific illness without clinical or laboratory evidence of central nervous system invasion. Clinical Features | |
| Nonparalytic aseptic meningitis severity: moderate case definition: Aseptic meningitis without paralysis | children vaccination status: not reported country: United States setting: expert summary of natural history period: pre-vaccine era natural history Infant <1y1-4y5-11y12-17y | 1 to 5 proportion of infections (%) per poliovirus infection | expert body | cdc.govquoteNonparalytic aseptic meningitis occurs in 1% to 5% of polio infections in children. Clinical Features | |
| Flaccid paralysis severity: paralysis case definition: Paralytic poliomyelitis | children vaccination status: not reported country: United States setting: expert summary of natural history period: pre-vaccine era natural history Infant <1y1-4y5-11y12-17y | <1 proportion of infections (%) per poliovirus infection | expert body | cdc.govquoteLess than 1% of all polio infections in children result in flaccid paralysis. Clinical Features Serotype-specific paralysis-to-infection ratios are in the Nathanson and Kew records. This is a ceiling, not a point estimate. | |
| Death from paralytic poliomyelitis severity: death case definition: Paralytic polio | children vaccination status: not reported country: United States setting: expert summary period: pre-vaccine and early vaccine era Infant <1y1-4y5-11y | 2 to 5 CFR (%) per paralytic case | expert body | cdc.govquoteThe case fatality ratio for paralytic polio is generally 2% to 5% among children and up to 15% to 30% among adolescents and adults. Clinical Features Denominator is paralytic cases, not infections. Do not multiply by the paralysis-to-infection ratio to get a per-infection death risk without stating the assumptions. | |
| Death from paralytic poliomyelitis severity: death case definition: Paralytic polio | adolescents and adults vaccination status: not reported country: United States setting: expert summary period: pre-vaccine and early vaccine era 12-17y18-49y50-64y65+ | 15 to 30 CFR (%) per paralytic case | expert body | cdc.govquoteThe case fatality ratio for paralytic polio is generally 2% to 5% among children and up to 15% to 30% among adolescents and adults. Clinical Features Same sentence as the childhood case-fatality record; the age gradient in case fatality is the key heterogeneity for polio. | |
| Death from bulbar poliomyelitis severity: death case definition: Paralytic polio with bulbar involvement | all ages (not stratified) vaccination status: not reported country: United States setting: expert summary period: pre-vaccine and early vaccine era All ages | 25 to 75 CFR (%) per paralytic case with bulbar involvement | expert body | cdc.govquoteIt increases to 25% to 75% with bulbar involvement. Clinical Features | |
| Paralytic polio cases worldwide at launch of eradication severity: paralysis case definition: Estimated paralytic cases | all ages vaccination status: mixed country: multiple (more than 125 countries) setting: global estimate period: 1988 All ages | 350,000 estimated paralytic cases per year (count) per year, global | expert body | cdc.govquoteIn 1988, polio paralyzed an estimated 350,000 individuals per year in more than 125 countries. Eradication | |
| Household transmission of poliovirus severity: infection case definition: Seroconversion among susceptible household contacts | susceptible household contacts of infected children vaccination status: unvaccinated country: United States setting: household period: pre-vaccine era natural history All ages | 100 secondary infection rate among susceptible household contacts (%) per susceptible household contact | expert body | cdc.govquoteCommunicability Poliovirus is highly infectious, with seroconversion rates among susceptible household contacts of children nearly 100%, and greater than 90% among susceptible household contacts of adults. Communicability The sentence says nearly 100% for contacts of children and greater than 90% for contacts of adults. | |
| Irreversible paralysis after poliovirus infection severity: paralysis case definition: Poliovirus infection leading to irreversible paralysis | all ages (mainly children under 5) vaccination status: not reported country: global setting: WHO fact sheet period: not stated All ages | 200 infections per case of irreversible paralysis (WHO states it as one in 200) per poliovirus infection | expert body | who.intquoteOne in 200 infections leads to irreversible paralysis (usually in the legs). Key facts / Overview WHO's headline ratio. It is an all-serotype average dominated by type 1; serotype-specific ratios differ roughly ten-fold (Nathanson and Kew records). | |
| Paralytic poliomyelitis cases worldwide, pre-vaccine vs 2000 severity: paralysis case definition: Estimated annual paralytic cases | all ages vaccination status: unvaccinated country: global setting: global estimate period: pre-vaccine era vs 2000 All ages | 600,000 estimated paralytic cases per year (count) per year, global | expert body | ebi.ac.ukquoteGlobal expansion of polio immunization resulted in a reduction of paralytic disease from an estimated annual prevaccine level of at least 600,000 cases to fewer than 1,000 cases in 2000. Abstract Lower bound ("at least"). The same sentence gives fewer than 1,000 cases in 2000. | |
| Provocation paralysis: injection in the 30 days before onset as a risk factor for paralytic polio severity: paralysis strain: wild poliovirus type 3 case definition: Virologically confirmed type 3 poliomyelitis vs matched controls | mean 30.6 months vaccination status: mixed country: India setting: outbreak period: 1999-2000 n: 48 cases and 175 controls Infant <1y1-4y | 3.9 (1.8–12.5) adjusted OR for paralytic polio, any injection in prior 30 days per case vs matched control | case-control | Kohler et al. 2003 Int J EpidemiolquoteThe only significant difference between the groups was the proportion that received any injection in the last 30 days prior to paralysis onset or the corresponding reference date for controls (35.4% versus 12.3%, adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 3.9, 95% CI: 1.8-12.5). abstract, RESULTS Cases and controls had similar OPV histories (similar median dose counts), so this outbreak did not point to vaccine failure as the main driver. | |
| Death from paralytic poliomyelitis, Albania 1996 outbreak severity: death strain: wild poliovirus type 1 case definition: Paralytic cases, wild poliovirus type 1 | all ages, highest attack rate in adults aged 19-25 years vaccination status: mixed country: Albania setting: outbreak period: 1996 n: 138 paralytic cases All ages | 12 CFR (%) per paralytic case | outbreak investigation | Prevots et al. 1998 Clin Infect DisquoteA total of 138 paralytic cases occurred, of which 16 (12%) were fatal. abstract | |
| Paralytic poliomyelitis attack rate in young adults severity: paralysis strain: wild poliovirus type 1 case definition: Paralytic cases, wild poliovirus type 1 | adults aged 19-25 years vaccination status: partially vaccinated country: Albania setting: outbreak period: 1996 18-49y | 10 attack rate per 100,000 population per 100,000 population | outbreak investigation | Prevots et al. 1998 Clin Infect DisquoteAn attack rate of 10 per 100,000 population was observed among adults aged 19-25 years who were born during a time of declining wild poliovirus circulation and had been vaccinated with two doses of monovalent oral poliovirus vaccines (OPVs) that may have been exposed to ambient temperatures for prolonged periods. abstract This cohort had received two doses of monovalent OPV that may have been heat-exposed; the source treats low vaccine potency as a likely contributor. | |
| Death and paralysis in an outbreak among unvaccinated people severity: death strain: wild poliovirus type 3 case definition: Clinical poliomyelitis cases, type 3 poliovirus | 10 days to 61 years (median 18 years) vaccination status: unvaccinated country: Netherlands setting: outbreak in a religious community refusing vaccination period: 1992-1993 n: 71 patients All ages | 2 deaths (count) among 71 cases per 71 clinical cases | outbreak investigation | Oostvogel et al. 1994 LancetquoteThe outbreak was due to poliovirus type 3 and involved 71 patients, of whom 2 died and 59 had paralysis. abstract 59 of the 71 had paralysis. The surrounding vaccinated population was not affected, which the authors read as evidence of good population protection in a largely IPV-vaccinated country. | |
| Paralytic cases in an outbreak in an IPV-vaccinated population severity: paralysis strain: poliovirus type 3 (antigenically altered) case definition: Paralytic poliomyelitis, antigenically altered type 3 poliovirus | all ages vaccination status: mixed country: Finland setting: outbreak, nationally IPV-vaccinated population period: 1984-1985 All ages | 9 paralytic cases (count) per outbreak | outbreak investigation | Hovi et al. 1986 LancetquoteAn outbreak of 9 cases of paralytic poliomyelitis and 1 non-paralytic case occurred in Finland between August, 1984, and January, 1985, after two decades of freedom from the disease attributable to a successful immunisation programme. abstract The abstract estimates that well over a hundred thousand persons were infected, illustrating how few infections become paralytic even with a strain poorly matched to the IPV then in use. | |
| Paralytic poliomyelitis incidence in an outbreak despite high OPV coverage severity: paralysis strain: wild poliovirus type 1 case definition: Paralytic poliomyelitis type 1 | children younger than 2 years vaccination status: mixed country: Oman setting: outbreak period: 1988-1989 Infant <1y1-4y | 87 incidence per 100,000 per 100,000 children under 2 years | outbreak investigation | Sutter et al. 1991 LancetquoteIncidence of paralytic disease was highest in children younger than 2 years (87/100,000) despite an immunisation programme that recently had raised coverage with 3 doses of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) among 12-month-old children from 67% to 87%. abstract Occurred while 3-dose OPV coverage at 12 months was rising from 67% to 87%, showing that outbreaks can still happen at high coverage when OPV efficacy is sub-optimal and the primary series is completed late. | |
| Spinal polio as a share of paralytic cases severity: paralysis case definition: Paralytic polio classified by level of involvement | all ages (not stratified) vaccination status: not reported country: United States setting: national surveillance period: 1969-1979 All ages | 79 proportion of paralytic cases (%) per paralytic case | surveillance | cdc.govquoteSpinal polio is most common, and during 1969–1979 accounted for 79% of paralytic cases. Clinical Features The cached year range contains an encoding artefact for the en dash; the figures are unaffected. | |
| Bulbar polio as a share of paralytic cases severity: bulbar paralysis case definition: Weakness of facial, oropharyngeal and respiratory muscles innervated by cranial nerves | all ages (not stratified) vaccination status: not reported country: United States setting: national surveillance period: 1969-1979 All ages | 2 proportion of paralytic cases (%) per paralytic case | surveillance | cdc.govquoteBulbar polio presents with weakness of facial, oropharyngeal, and respiratory muscles innervated by cranial nerves and accounted for 2% of cases during this period. Clinical Features | |
| Bulbospinal polio as a share of paralytic cases severity: bulbospinal paralysis case definition: Combined bulbar and spinal paralysis | all ages (not stratified) vaccination status: not reported country: United States setting: national surveillance period: 1969-1979 All ages | 19 proportion of paralytic cases (%) per paralytic case | surveillance | cdc.govquoteBulbospinal polio, a combination of bulbar and spinal paralysis, accounted for 19% of cases. Clinical Features | |
| Reported paralytic poliomyelitis cases in the peak pre-vaccine year severity: paralysis case definition: Reported paralytic cases, national notification | all ages vaccination status: unvaccinated country: United States setting: national surveillance period: 1952 (pre-vaccine era) All ages | 21,000 reported paralytic cases per year (count) per year, national | surveillance | cdc.govquotePolio infections peaked in the United States in 1952, with more than 21,000 paralytic cases. Secular Trends Pre-vaccine peak year. Compare the following records for the post-IPV and post-OPV eras. | |
| Reported paralytic poliomyelitis cases after IPV introduction severity: paralysis case definition: Reported paralytic cases, national notification | all ages vaccination status: mixed country: United States setting: national surveillance period: 1960 (IPV era, before OPV) All ages | 2,525 reported paralytic cases per year (count) per year, national | surveillance | cdc.govquoteFrom the more than 21,000 paralytic cases reported in 1952, only 2,525 cases were reported in 1960 and 61 cases in 1965. Secular Trends The same sentence gives 61 cases in 1965 after OPV introduction. | |
| Confirmed paralytic poliomyelitis cases, post-elimination era severity: paralysis case definition: Confirmed paralytic poliomyelitis, national notification | all ages vaccination status: mixed country: United States setting: national surveillance period: 1980-1999 All ages | 8 average confirmed paralytic cases per year (count) per year, national | surveillance | cdc.govquoteFrom 1980–1999, 162 confirmed cases of paralytic poliomyelitis were reported in the United States, an average of 8 cases per year. Secular Trends Almost all of these were vaccine-associated (next record), not wild-virus disease. | |
| Share of US paralytic polio cases that were vaccine-associated (VAPP) severity: paralysis case definition: VAPP caused by Sabin strains in OPV | all ages vaccination status: mixed country: United States setting: national surveillance period: 1980-1999 All ages | 95 proportion of confirmed paralytic cases (%) per confirmed paralytic polio case | surveillance | cdc.govquoteThe remaining 154 (95%) cases were vaccine-associated paralytic polio (VAPP) caused by the Sabin poliovirus strains contained in OPV vaccine. Secular Trends Burden composition in a country without wild poliovirus: once wild virus is gone, OPV itself becomes the main source of paralytic polio, which is why the US later switched to an IPV-only schedule. The VAPP rate per dose is in the safety records. | |
| Wild poliovirus paralytic cases worldwide severity: paralysis case definition: Reported wild poliovirus cases | all ages vaccination status: mixed country: multiple (endemic in two countries) setting: global surveillance period: 2019 All ages | 125 reported wild poliovirus cases per year (count) per year, global | surveillance | cdc.govquoteBy 2019, only 125 cases caused by wild poliovirus were reported globally, a reduction of more than 99% from 1988, and polio remained endemic in only two countries. Eradication | |
| Paralysis from circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 severity: paralysis case definition: cVDPV2 outbreak cases | children vaccination status: mixed country: multiple (20 countries in Africa and Asia) setting: global surveillance period: 2019 Infant <1y1-4y5-11y | 369 reported cVDPV2 paralytic cases per year (count) per year, global | surveillance | cdc.govquoteIn 2019, circulating type 2 VDPV caused outbreaks in 20 countries in Africa and Asia, and paralyzed 369 children. Eradication cVDPV cases are caused by reverted OPV strains circulating in under-immunised populations; they are a consequence of OPV use plus low coverage, not of wild virus. | |
| Share of paralytic cases caused by poliovirus type 1 severity: paralysis strain: poliovirus type 1 case definition: Serotype of paralytic poliomyelitis cases, pre-vaccine United States | all ages vaccination status: unvaccinated country: United States setting: laboratory typing of isolates period: pre-vaccine era All ages | 80 proportion of paralytic cases (%) per paralytic case | surveillance | ebi.ac.ukquoteIn the prevaccine era in the United States ( 16 ), it was observed that the 3 poliovirus types varied substantially in their paralytogenicity ( Table 1 ); type 1 accounted for approximately 80% of paralytic cases ( 17 , 18 ). Background, Table 1 discussion | |
| Death from paralytic poliomyelitis, Sweden 1935-1944 severity: death case definition: Deaths among reported paralytic cases | all ages vaccination status: unvaccinated country: Sweden setting: national notification period: 1935-1944 (pre-vaccine era) n: 11,455 paralytic cases All ages | 13.9 CFR (%) per paralytic case | surveillance | ebi.ac.ukquoteChronologic Trends in the Poliomyelitis Case-Fatality Rate in Sweden, 1905–1944 a 1905 | 1911–1913 | 1925–1934 | 1935–1944 | No. of paralytic cases | 868 | 6,775 | 4,156 | 11,455 | No. of deaths | 145 | 1,239 | 624 | 1,594 | Case-fatality rate, % | 16.7 | 18.3 | 15.0 | 13.9 | a Data were obtained from Olin ( 42 ). Table 4 Table gives 16.7% (1905), 18.3% (1911-1913), 15.0% (1925-1934) and 13.9% (1935-1944): a stable, high case fatality in a country where cases were older than in low-income settings. Case fatality rises steeply with age (Pink Book records). | |
| Death from paralytic poliomyelitis, Sweden 1905 severity: death case definition: Deaths among reported paralytic cases | all ages vaccination status: unvaccinated country: Sweden setting: national notification period: 1905 epidemic (pre-vaccine era) n: 868 paralytic cases All ages | 16.7 CFR (%) per paralytic case | surveillance | ebi.ac.ukquoteChronologic Trends in the Poliomyelitis Case-Fatality Rate in Sweden, 1905–1944 a 1905 | 1911–1913 | 1925–1934 | 1935–1944 | No. of paralytic cases | 868 | 6,775 | 4,156 | 11,455 | No. of deaths | 145 | 1,239 | 624 | 1,594 | Case-fatality rate, % | 16.7 | 18.3 | 15.0 | 13.9 | a Data were obtained from Olin ( 42 ). Table 4 | |
| Paralytic poliomyelitis incidence in rural under-fives severity: paralysis case definition: Lameness survey, paralytic poliomyelitis in the previous 12 months | children under five vaccination status: mixed country: India setting: community survey, rural period: 1988 n: 42,045 surveyed Infant <1y1-4y | 2.57 estimated annual incidence per 1,000 under-fives per 1,000 children under five per year | surveillance | Balraj et al. 1990 Int J EpidemiolquoteSome 67 children had poliomyelitis (prevalence of lameness 1.59/1000, estimated annual incidence 2.57/1000 under-fives). abstract Same sentence gives lameness prevalence 1.59 per 1,000 under-fives. Endemic-era LMIC burden with partial OPV coverage. | |
| Wild poliovirus type 1 paralytic cases worldwide severity: paralysis strain: wild poliovirus type 1 case definition: Reported WPV1 cases, AFP surveillance | all ages (mostly children under 5) vaccination status: mixed country: Afghanistan and Pakistan setting: national surveillance period: 2023 All ages | 12 reported WPV1 cases per year (count) per year, global | surveillance | ebi.ac.ukquoteIn 2023, Afghanistan and Pakistan identified 12 total WPV1 polio cases, compared with 22 in 2022. Summary Same sentence: 22 cases in 2022. Only the two endemic countries reported WPV1 cases in 2023. | |
| Circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus paralytic cases worldwide severity: paralysis strain: cVDPV (predominantly type 2) case definition: Reported cVDPV cases (all serotypes), AFP surveillance | all ages (mostly children under 5) vaccination status: mixed country: multiple (outbreaks in 32 countries) setting: global surveillance period: 2023 All ages | 524 reported cVDPV cases per year (count) per year, global | surveillance | ebi.ac.ukquoteThe number of polio cases caused by circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs; circulating vaccine virus strains that have reverted to neurovirulence) decreased from 881 in 2022 to 524 in 2023; cVDPV outbreaks (defined as either a cVDPV case with evidence of circulation or at least two positive environmental surveillance isolates) occurred in 32 countries in 2023, including eight that did not experience a cVDPV outbreak in 2022. Summary 881 cases in 2022. cVDPV paralysis now exceeds wild-virus paralysis by an order of magnitude (compare the WPV1 record from the same report). | |
| Wild poliovirus type 1 paralytic cases, Afghanistan, 2026 year to date severity: paralysis strain: wild poliovirus type 1 case definition: Reported WPV1 cases, AFP surveillance | all ages (mostly children under 5) vaccination status: mixed country: Afghanistan setting: national surveillance period: 2026 (to 14 October) All ages | 36 reported WPV1 cases, year to date (count) per year, national | surveillance | polioeradication.orgquoteThe total number of cases in 2026 is 36. Country updates as of 14 October 2026, Afghanistan Year-to-date count from the GPEI weekly page; it will change. The cached sentence does not name the country; it sits under the Afghanistan heading (Pakistan's 2026 count is written as the word six, so it cannot be compiled). | |
| Wild poliovirus type 1 paralytic cases, Afghanistan, 2025 severity: paralysis strain: wild poliovirus type 1 case definition: Reported WPV1 cases, AFP surveillance | all ages (mostly children under 5) vaccination status: mixed country: Afghanistan setting: national surveillance period: 2025 All ages | 21 reported WPV1 cases per year (count) per year, national | surveillance | polioeradication.orgquoteThe total number of cases in 2025 is 21. Country updates as of 14 October 2026, Afghanistan | |
| Wild poliovirus type 1 paralytic cases, Pakistan, 2025 severity: paralysis strain: wild poliovirus type 1 case definition: Reported WPV1 cases, AFP surveillance | all ages (mostly children under 5) vaccination status: mixed country: Pakistan setting: national surveillance period: 2025 All ages | 31 reported WPV1 cases per year (count) per year, national | surveillance | polioeradication.orgquoteThe total number of cases in 2025 is 31. Country updates as of 14 October 2026, Pakistan | |
| cVDPV2 paralytic cases, DR Congo, 2026 year to date severity: paralysis strain: cVDPV2 case definition: Reported cVDPV2 cases, AFP surveillance | all ages (mostly children under 5) vaccination status: mixed country: Democratic Republic of the Congo setting: national surveillance period: 2026 (to 14 October) All ages | 71 reported cVDPV2 cases, year to date (count) per year, national | surveillance | polioeradication.orgquoteThe number of cVDPV2 cases in 2026 is 71 (most recent case: 5 September 2026). Country updates as of 14 October 2026, Democratic Republic of the Congo Year-to-date; DRC had seven cVDPV2 cases in the preceding year per the same page. | |
| cVDPV2 paralytic cases, Nigeria, 2026 year to date severity: paralysis strain: cVDPV2 case definition: Reported cVDPV2 cases, AFP surveillance | all ages (mostly children under 5) vaccination status: mixed country: Nigeria setting: national surveillance period: 2026 (to 14 October) All ages | 36 reported cVDPV2 cases, year to date (count) per year, national | surveillance | polioeradication.orgquoteThe total number of cVDPV2 cases reported in 2026 is 36 (most recent case: 21 August 2026). Country updates as of 14 October 2026, Nigeria | |
| cVDPV2 paralytic cases, Nigeria, 2025 severity: paralysis strain: cVDPV2 case definition: Reported cVDPV2 cases, AFP surveillance | all ages (mostly children under 5) vaccination status: mixed country: Nigeria setting: national surveillance period: 2025 All ages | 66 reported cVDPV2 cases per year (count) per year, national | surveillance | polioeradication.orgquoteThe total number of cVDPV2 cases reported in 2025 is 66. Country updates as of 14 October 2026, Nigeria | |
| cVDPV2 paralytic cases during continuous transmission in Nigeria severity: paralysis strain: cVDPV2 case definition: Detected cVDPV2 poliomyelitis cases | children (cases under 60 months in the study) vaccination status: mixed country: Nigeria setting: national surveillance period: 2018-2022 Infant <1y1-4y | 526 cVDPV2 paralytic cases (count) per 2018-2022, national | surveillance | Cooper et al. 2024 Lancet Infect DisquoteBACKGROUND: Between 2018 and 2022, Nigeria experienced continuous transmission of circulating vaccine-derived type 2 poliovirus (cVDPV2), with 526 cases of cVDPV2 poliomyelitis detected in total and approximately 180 million doses of monovalent type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (mOPV2) and 450 million doses of novel type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (nOPV2) delivered in outbreak response campaigns. abstract, BACKGROUND Occurred despite roughly 180 million mOPV2 and 450 million nOPV2 campaign doses in the same period. | |
| cVDPV2 paralytic cases, Somalia severity: paralysis strain: cVDPV2 case definition: Detected cVDPV2 cases, AFP surveillance | all ages (mostly children under 5) vaccination status: mixed country: Somalia setting: national surveillance, security-compromised areas period: January 2017-March 2024 All ages | 39 cVDPV2 cases (count) per 2017-2024, national | surveillance | Mendes et al. 2024 MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly RepquoteDuring January 2017-March 2024, officials in Somalia detected 39 cVDPV2 cases in 14 of 20 regions, and transmission has spread to neighboring Ethiopia and Kenya. abstract | |
| Share of cVDPV paralytic cases due to serotype 2 severity: paralysis strain: cVDPV2 case definition: Reported human cVDPV cases, global compilation | all ages vaccination status: mixed country: multiple (40 countries) setting: global compilation period: January 2016-June 2021 n: 1818 cVDPV cases All ages | 95 proportion of cVDPV cases (%) per reported cVDPV case | surveillance | Lai et al. 2022 EClinicalMedicinequoteFINDINGS: cVDPV caused by serotype 2 poliovirus was the predominant strain (95%) of 1818 total human cVDPV cases reported. abstract, FINDINGS | |
| Infections per paralytic case, poliovirus type 1 severity: paralysis strain: poliovirus type 1 case definition: Paralytic poliomyelitis cases per infection, by serotype, assuming an overall ratio of 1:150 | all ages vaccination status: unvaccinated country: United States setting: pre-vaccine era serotype distribution applied to an overall case:infection ratio period: pre-vaccine era All ages | 190 infections per paralytic case per paralytic case | modelling | ebi.ac.ukquoteRatio of Paralytic Poliomyelitis Cases to Number of Infections for the 3 Serotypes of Poliovirus, Assuming an Overall Ratio of 1:150 a Poliovirus Serotype | % of Paralytic Cases | No. of Paralytic Cases per 100 Infections | No. of Infections per Paralytic Case | 1 | 79 | 0.526 | 190 | 2 | 8 | 0.053 | 1,886 | 3 | 13 | 0.087 | 1,149 | Total | 100 | 0.667 | 150 | a The distribution of paralytic cases by serotype was based on unpublished laboratory studies on typing of poliovirus isolates for the United States for 1955, as reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( 17 ). Table 1 Derived table: the authors apportion an assumed overall 1:150 ratio across serotypes using the serotype distribution of paralytic cases (79% type 1, 8% type 2, 13% type 3). Same table also gives 0.526 paralytic cases per 100 infections for type 1. | |
| Infections per paralytic case, poliovirus type 2 severity: paralysis strain: poliovirus type 2 case definition: Paralytic poliomyelitis cases per infection, by serotype, assuming an overall ratio of 1:150 | all ages vaccination status: unvaccinated country: United States setting: pre-vaccine era serotype distribution applied to an overall case:infection ratio period: pre-vaccine era All ages | 1,886 infections per paralytic case per paralytic case | modelling | ebi.ac.ukquoteRatio of Paralytic Poliomyelitis Cases to Number of Infections for the 3 Serotypes of Poliovirus, Assuming an Overall Ratio of 1:150 a Poliovirus Serotype | % of Paralytic Cases | No. of Paralytic Cases per 100 Infections | No. of Infections per Paralytic Case | 1 | 79 | 0.526 | 190 | 2 | 8 | 0.053 | 1,886 | 3 | 13 | 0.087 | 1,149 | Total | 100 | 0.667 | 150 | a The distribution of paralytic cases by serotype was based on unpublished laboratory studies on typing of poliovirus isolates for the United States for 1955, as reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( 17 ). Table 1 Type 2 is the least paralytogenic wild serotype (0.053 paralytic cases per 100 infections in the same table). Wild type 2 has since been certified eradicated; type 2 paralysis today is from cVDPV2. | |
| Infections per paralytic case, poliovirus type 3 severity: paralysis strain: poliovirus type 3 case definition: Paralytic poliomyelitis cases per infection, by serotype, assuming an overall ratio of 1:150 | all ages vaccination status: unvaccinated country: United States setting: pre-vaccine era serotype distribution applied to an overall case:infection ratio period: pre-vaccine era All ages | 1,149 infections per paralytic case per paralytic case | modelling | ebi.ac.ukquoteRatio of Paralytic Poliomyelitis Cases to Number of Infections for the 3 Serotypes of Poliovirus, Assuming an Overall Ratio of 1:150 a Poliovirus Serotype | % of Paralytic Cases | No. of Paralytic Cases per 100 Infections | No. of Infections per Paralytic Case | 1 | 79 | 0.526 | 190 | 2 | 8 | 0.053 | 1,886 | 3 | 13 | 0.087 | 1,149 | Total | 100 | 0.667 | 150 | a The distribution of paralytic cases by serotype was based on unpublished laboratory studies on typing of poliovirus isolates for the United States for 1955, as reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( 17 ). Table 1 | |
| Death among children admitted with acute poliomyelitis severity: death case definition: Clinically diagnosed acute poliomyelitis admitted to a children's hospital | 2 months to 75 months vaccination status: partially vaccinated country: India setting: hospital period: 1988-1989 n: 614 children Infant <1y1-4y5-11y | 3.3 CFR (%) per admitted case | case series | Deivanayagam et al. 1992 Indian PediatrquoteCase fatality was 3.3%. abstract Hospital series in a low-income urban setting; only about a quarter had three or more OPV doses. | |
| Spinobulbar and bulbar presentation among admitted children severity: bulbar or spinobulbar paralysis case definition: Clinical form of acute poliomyelitis | 2 months to 75 months vaccination status: partially vaccinated country: India setting: hospital period: 1988-1989 n: 614 children Infant <1y1-4y5-11y | 18 proportion of admitted cases with spinobulbar form (%) per admitted case | case series | Deivanayagam et al. 1992 Indian PediatrquoteThe commonest presentation was spinal form (80%) followed by spinobulbar (18%) and bulbar form (2%). abstract Same sentence: spinal 80%, bulbar 2%. | |
| Severe paralysis among admitted children severity: severe paralysis case definition: Clinical grading of paralysis | 2 months to 75 months vaccination status: partially vaccinated country: India setting: hospital period: 1988-1989 n: 614 children Infant <1y1-4y5-11y | 72 proportion of admitted cases (%) per admitted case | case series | Deivanayagam et al. 1992 Indian PediatrquoteParalysis was severe in 72%, moderate in 6% and mild in 22%. abstract |
Vaccine efficacy and effectiveness
Every estimate compiled, annotated by population (P), intervention (I), comparator (C), outcome (O) and study design (S).
| Outcome (O) | Population (P) | Intervention / comparator | Estimate | Design (S) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detectable antibody to poliovirus types 1 and 3 after three tOPV doses (surrogate) severity: surrogate (antibody) strain: poliovirus types 1 and 3 case definition: Seroconversion in studies from developing countries | children (infants in primary series) country: multiple developing countries setting: LMIC period: studies up to 1991 Infant <1y1-4y | trivalent OPV (tOPV) platform: live attenuated oral doses: 3 vs none (industrialized-country rates approach 100% in the same sentence) | 73 proportion with detectable antibody to type 1 (%), 3 doses | systematic review | Patriarca et al. 1991 Rev Infect DisquoteAlthough rates of seroconversion following administration of trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (TOPV) approach 100% in industrialized countries, only 73% (range, 36%-99%) and 70% (range, 40%-99%) of children in developing countries have detectable antibody to poliovirus types 1 and 3, respectively, after three doses. abstract Type 3: 70% (range 40%-99%). Interference from type 2 vaccine virus and enteric pathogens is the explanation offered; range across studies is very wide. |
| Seroconversion to poliovirus types 1, 2 and 3 (surrogate) severity: surrogate (antibody) case definition: Seroconversion after enhanced-potency IPV, pooled across study arms | infants country: multiple setting: mostly LMIC routine schedules Infant <1y | inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), enhanced potency platform: inactivated, intramuscular doses: 1 vs none (single-arm pooled proportions) | 33 proportion seroconverting to type 1 (%), 1 full dose (average) | meta-analysis 20 study arms from 12 articles | Grassly 2014 J Infect DisquoteOne full dose of intramuscular IPV seroconverted 33%, 41%, and 47% of infants against serotypes 1, 2, and 3 on average, whereas 2 full doses seroconverted 79%, 80%, and 90%, respectively. abstract, RESULTS Same sentence gives types 2 and 3 after one dose and all three types after two doses (next record). Seroconversion increased with age at administration. The review states that limited case-control data indicate clinical efficacy equivalent to the proportion seroconverting. |
| Seroconversion to poliovirus types 1, 2 and 3 (surrogate) severity: surrogate (antibody) case definition: Seroconversion after enhanced-potency IPV, pooled across study arms | infants country: multiple setting: mostly LMIC routine schedules Infant <1y | inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), enhanced potency platform: inactivated, intramuscular doses: 2 vs none (single-arm pooled proportions) | 79 proportion seroconverting to type 1 (%), 2 full doses (average) | meta-analysis 20 study arms from 12 articles | Grassly 2014 J Infect DisquoteOne full dose of intramuscular IPV seroconverted 33%, 41%, and 47% of infants against serotypes 1, 2, and 3 on average, whereas 2 full doses seroconverted 79%, 80%, and 90%, respectively. abstract, RESULTS Type 2 80%, type 3 90% after two doses. |
| Poliovirus shedding in stool after OPV challenge (intestinal immunity) severity: surrogate (intestinal immunity, transmission) case definition: Prevalence of shedding 5-30 days after a challenge OPV dose | children in challenge studies country: multiple setting: challenge studies published to May 2011 Infant <1y1-4y5-11y | oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) platform: live attenuated oral doses: as per included schedules vs unvaccinated individuals | 0.13 (0.08–0.24) OR for shedding after challenge | meta-analysis 31 stool-shedding studies | Hird et al. 2012 PLoS PathogquoteIndividuals vaccinated with OPV were protected against infection and shedding of poliovirus in stool samples collected after challenge compared with unvaccinated individuals (summary odds ratio [OR] for shedding 0.13 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.08-0.24)). abstract OPV protects against infection and shedding; IPV does not (next record). This is the mechanistic reason OPV, not IPV, is used to stop transmission in faecal-oral settings. |
| Poliovirus shedding in stool after OPV challenge (intestinal immunity) severity: surrogate (intestinal immunity, transmission) case definition: Prevalence of shedding 5-30 days after a challenge OPV dose | children in challenge studies country: multiple setting: challenge studies published to May 2011 Infant <1y1-4y5-11y | inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) platform: inactivated, intramuscular doses: as per included schedules vs unvaccinated individuals | 0.81 (0.59–1.11) OR for shedding after challenge | meta-analysis | Hird et al. 2012 PLoS PathogquoteIn contrast, IPV provided no protection against shedding compared with unvaccinated individuals (summary OR 0.81 [95% CI 0.59-1.11]) or when given in addition to OPV, compared with individuals given OPV alone (summary OR 1.14 [95% CI 0.82-1.58]). abstract A null result for a different outcome from paralysis: IPV prevents paralysis but not intestinal infection. IPV added to OPV vs OPV alone: OR 1.14 (0.82-1.58). |
| Per-dose seroconversion to poliovirus type 1 with concurrent non-polio enterovirus infection (surrogate) severity: surrogate (antibody) strain: poliovirus type 1 case definition: Seroconversion in trials stratified by presence of enteric infection at vaccination | children in OPV trials country: multiple (mostly LMIC) setting: LMIC Infant <1y1-4y | oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) platform: live attenuated oral doses: per dose vs OPV recipients without concurrent NPEV infection | 0.44 (0.23–0.84) OR for per-dose seroconversion, NPEV-infected vs uninfected | meta-analysis 25 trials | Parker et al. 2014 J Infect DisquoteConcurrent NPEVs significantly reduced the odds of per-dose seroconversion for type 1 poliovirus (odds ratio [OR] 0.44, 95% confidence interval 0.23-0.84), but not type 2 (OR 0.53 [0.19-1.46]) or type 3 (OR 0.56 [0.27-1.12]). abstract, RESULTS Concurrent diarrhoea also reduced seroconversion overall. Explains part of the LMIC vs high-income gap in OPV performance. |
| Seroconversion to poliovirus type 2 (surrogate), bOPV vs tOPV schedules severity: surrogate (antibody) strain: poliovirus type 2 case definition: Network meta-analysis of RCTs outside western Europe and North America | infants in primary series country: multiple (LMIC and middle-income trial sites) setting: LMIC/middle-income RCTs 1980-2018 Infant <1y | bivalent OPV types 1 and 3 (bOPV), 3 doses platform: live attenuated oral doses: 3 vs three doses of trivalent OPV | 0.14 (0.11–0.17) RR of seroconversion vs three tOPV doses | meta-analysis 17 studies, up to 8279 infants | Macklin et al. 2019 Lancet Infect DisquoteFor serotype 2, there was low between-trial heterogeneity in the data (τ=0·05, 95% credible interval [CrI] 0·009-0·15) and the risk ratio (RR) of seroconversion after three doses of bivalent OPVs was 0·14 (95% CrI 0·11-0·17) compared with three doses of trivalent OPVs. abstract, FINDINGS Adding one or two IPV doses to bOPV brought type 2 seroconversion back to about the tOPV level, but intestinal immunity to type 2 stayed low. |
| Seroconversion to poliovirus type 2 (surrogate), fractional vs full-dose IPV severity: surrogate (antibody) strain: poliovirus type 2 case definition: Proportion seroconverted at least 4 weeks after vaccination | children aged 5 years or younger country: multiple setting: trials and observational studies, mostly LMIC Infant <1y1-4y5-11y | fractional-dose IPV (0.1 mL) platform: inactivated, intradermal doses: 1 vs full-dose IPV (0.5 mL) | 0.61 (0.51–0.72) RR of seroconversion, fractional vs full dose, 1 dose | meta-analysis GRADE: moderate 10 completed studies in 12 articles | Mashunye et al. 2021 Lancet Infect DisquoteFor poliovirus type 2, there were no significant differences in the proportions of seroconversions between fractional and full doses of IPV for two or three doses: the risk ratio for serconversion at one dose was 0·61 (95% CI 0·51-0·72), at two doses was 0·90 (0·82-1·00), and at three doses was 0·95 (0·91-1·00). abstract, FINDINGS RR 0.90 (0.82-1.00) at two doses and 0.95 (0.91-1.00) at three doses (high certainty for the three-dose comparison). Titres were lower with fractional dosing at every dose count. |
| Seroconversion to poliovirus type 1 after one dose (surrogate), intradermal fractional vs intramuscular full-dose IPV severity: surrogate (antibody) strain: poliovirus type 1 case definition: Seroconversion after a single primary dose | children country: multiple (9 middle-income, 3 high-income, 1 low-income study) setting: mixed Infant <1y1-4y5-11y | fractional-dose IPV (one fifth, intradermal) platform: inactivated, intradermal doses: 1 vs full-dose intramuscular IPV | 0.30 (0.22–0.41) OR for seroconversion, fractional intradermal vs full intramuscular | meta-analysis GRADE: low 6 studies, 2570 children | Jaiswal et al. 2019 Cochrane Database Syst RevquoteThese were significantly higher for all three types of wild poliovirus for children given intramuscular full-dose IPV after a single primary dose and two primary doses, but only significantly higher for type two wild poliovirus given intramuscularly after three primary doses: • dose one (six studies): poliovirus type 1 (odds ratio (OR) 0.30, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.22 to 0.41; 2570 children); poliovirus type 2 (OR 0.43, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.60; 2567 children); poliovirus type 3 (OR 0.19, 95% CI 0.12 to 0.30; 2571 children); • dose two (three studies): poliovirus type 1 (OR 0.23, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.33; 981 children); poliovirus type 2 (OR 0.41, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.60; 853 children); and poliovirus type 3 (OR 0.12, 95% CI 0.07 to 0.22; 855 children); and • dose three (three studies): poliovirus type 1 (OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.07 to 3.15; 973 children); poliovirus type 2 (OR 0.34, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.63; 973 children); and poliovirus type 3 (OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.01 to 2.58; 973 children). abstract, MAIN RESULTS Cochrane rated the certainty low or very low and found no study reporting paralytic poliomyelitis as an outcome. Same abstract: after three doses the type 1 OR was 0.45 (0.07-3.15) and type 2 OR 0.34 (0.19-0.63). |
| Seroconversion to all three poliovirus types (surrogate of protection) severity: surrogate (antibody) case definition: Protective antibody to all three types after IPV | infants and children on the routine schedule country: United States setting: expert summary Infant <1y1-4y5-11y | inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) platform: inactivated, intramuscular doses: 2 vs none (single-arm immunogenicity) | 90 proportion with protective antibody (%), 2 doses | expert body | cdc.govquoteImmunogenicity and Vaccine Efficacy Poliovirus Vaccine Efficacy (IPV) Highly effective in producing immunity to poliovirus 90% or more immune after 2 doses At least 99% immune after 3 doses Duration of immunity not known with certainty, although probably lifelong IPV vaccine is highly effective in producing immunity to poliovirus and protection from paralytic poliomyelitis. Immunogenicity and Vaccine Efficacy (summary box) Surrogate: antibody, not observed paralysis. Same sentence gives the three-dose figure (next record). CDC states that protection against paralytic disease correlates with the presence of antibody after vaccination. |
| Seroconversion to all three poliovirus types (surrogate of protection) severity: surrogate (antibody) case definition: Protective antibody to all three types after IPV | infants and children on the routine schedule country: United States setting: expert summary Infant <1y1-4y5-11y | inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) platform: inactivated, intramuscular doses: 3 vs none (single-arm immunogenicity) | 99 proportion immune (%), 3 doses | expert body | cdc.govquoteNinety percent or more of vaccine recipients develop protective antibody to all three poliovirus types after 2 doses, and at least 99% are immune following 3 doses. Immunogenicity and Vaccine Efficacy Surrogate measure. Duration of IPV immunity is described by CDC as not known with certainty, although probably lifelong. |
| Seroconversion to all three poliovirus types after one tOPV dose (surrogate) severity: surrogate (antibody) case definition: Immunity to all three vaccine viruses | infants country: industrialized countries setting: expert summary Infant <1y | trivalent OPV (tOPV) platform: live attenuated oral doses: 1 vs none (single-arm immunogenicity) | 50 proportion immune to all three types (%), 1 dose | expert body | cdc.govquoteBecause of interference among serotypes during intestinal replication, a single dose of tOPV produces immunity to all three vaccine viruses in approximately 50% of recipients. Immunogenicity and Vaccine Efficacy Interference among serotypes during intestinal replication limits the single-dose response. |
| Seroconversion to all three poliovirus types after three tOPV doses (surrogate) severity: surrogate (antibody) case definition: Immunity to all three vaccine viruses | infants country: industrialized countries setting: expert summary, high-income Infant <1y | trivalent OPV (tOPV) platform: live attenuated oral doses: 3 vs none (single-arm immunogenicity) | 95 proportion immune to all three types (%), 3 doses | expert body | cdc.govquoteSubsequent doses cause less interference during intestinal replication and 3 doses produce immunity to all three poliovirus types in more than 95% of recipients in industrialized countries. Immunogenicity and Vaccine Efficacy Contrast with the much lower developing-country figures for types 1 and 3 (next record): the setting gap is the central fact of OPV performance. |
| Seroconversion to poliovirus types 1, 2 and 3 (surrogate) severity: surrogate (antibody) case definition: Neutralising antibody seroconversion at least 4 weeks after last dose | infants vaccinated at 6, 10 and 14 weeks country: Cuba setting: tropical middle-income, RCT period: about 2005 n: 166 infants randomised (groups A and B) Infant <1y | DPT-Hib-IPV combination platform: inactivated, intramuscular doses: 3 (6, 10, 14 weeks) vs DPT-Hib without IPV (no seroconversions in group B) | 94 proportion seroconverting to type 1 (%), 3 doses | RCT | Cuba 2007 N Engl J MedquoteRESULTS: The seroconversion rates in group A were 94%, 83%, and 100% for types 1, 2, and 3 poliovirus, respectively. abstract, RESULTS Types 2 and 3 are in the same sentence. Two doses at a later schedule (non-randomised group C) gave around ninety percent for each type. Placebo-controlled for seroconversion, not for paralysis. |
| Seroconversion to poliovirus type 1 after two doses (surrogate) severity: surrogate (antibody) strain: poliovirus type 1 case definition: Cumulative two-dose seroconversion, doses at birth and 30 days | newborns country: India setting: three centres, LMIC, RCT period: 2008 n: 830 newborns analysed NeonateInfant <1y | bivalent OPV types 1 and 3 (bOPV) platform: live attenuated oral doses: 2 vs trivalent OPV, 63% (106 of 168) | 86 proportion seroconverting (%), 2 doses | RCT | Sutter et al. 2010 LancetquoteCumulative two-dose seroconversion to poliovirus type 1 was 90% (151 of 168) for mOPV1 and 86% (136 of 159) for bOPV compared with 63% (106 of 168) for tOPV (p<0·0001), to poliovirus type 2 was 90% (153 of 170) for mOPV2 compared with 91% (153 of 168) for tOPV (p>0·01), and to poliovirus type 3 was 84% (138 of 165) for mOPV3 and 74% (117 of 159) for bOPV compared with 52% (87 of 168) for tOPV (p<0·0001). abstract, RESULTS Same sentence: mOPV1 figure. Type 3 two-dose seroconversion was lower for every product. First-dose seroconversion at birth was low for any product. |
| Seroconversion to poliovirus type 2 (surrogate) severity: surrogate (antibody) strain: poliovirus type 2 case definition: Neutralising antibody seroconversion after primary series | infants from 6 weeks country: Colombia, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Panama setting: Latin America, middle-income, RCT period: 2013 Infant <1y | bivalent OPV only (6, 10, 14 weeks) platform: live attenuated oral doses: 3 vs tOPV only: 97.7% (92.1-99.4); bOPV plus one IPV dose: 80.4% (74.3-85.4) | 9.6 (6.2–14.5) proportion seroconverting (%) | RCT | Asturias et al. 2016 LancetquoteType 2 seroconversion occurred in 19 of 198 infants (9·6%, 95% CI 6·2-14·5) in the bOPV-only groups, 86 of 88 (97·7%, 92·1-99·4) in the tOPV-only group (p<0·0001 vs bOPV-only), and 156 of 194 (80·4%, 74·3-85·4) infants in the bOPV-one dose of IPV group (p<0·0001 vs bOPV-only). abstract, FINDINGS Shows the type 2 immunity gap created by the global tOPV-to-bOPV switch and why at least one IPV dose is now universal. Types 1 and 3 seroconversion was at least 97.7% with either OPV. |
| Seroconversion to poliovirus type 2 (surrogate) severity: surrogate (antibody) strain: poliovirus type 2 case definition: Neutralising antibody seroconversion after primary series | infants from 6 weeks country: Colombia, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Panama setting: Latin America, middle-income, RCT period: 2013 n: 193 infants Infant <1y | bivalent OPV plus two IPV doses (14 and 36 weeks) platform: live attenuated oral plus inactivated doses: 3 bOPV + 2 IPV vs bOPV only (9.6%) | 100 (98.0–100) proportion seroconverting (%) | RCT | Asturias et al. 2016 LancetquoteAfter a bOPV-two IPV schedule, all 193 infants (100%, 98·0-100; p<0·0001 vs bOPV-only) seroconverted to type 2. abstract, FINDINGS IPV induced only small decreases in type 2 faecal shedding after mOPV2 challenge, so humoral and intestinal immunity diverge (mucosal immunity records). |
| Seroconversion to poliovirus type 2 (surrogate) severity: surrogate (antibody) strain: poliovirus type 2 case definition: Neutralising antibody seroconversion | infants enrolled at 14 days or younger country: Nigeria setting: sub-Saharan Africa EPI schedule, RCT period: 2016-2017 n: 572 infants randomised Infant <1y | bOPV (birth, 6, 10 weeks) plus IPV at 14 weeks platform: inactivated (type 2 component) doses: 1 IPV vs same arm after a second IPV dose at 18 weeks: 95.9% (92.8-97.9) | 72.0 (66.2–77.3) proportion seroconverting (%), 1 IPV dose | RCT | Tagbo et al. 2022 J Infect DisquoteType 2 seroconversion with 1 dose IPV in Arm A was 72.0% (95% CI, 66.2-77.3), which increased significantly with addition of second dose to 95.9% (95% CI, 92.8-97.9). abstract, RESULTS A second IPV dose closes most of the type 2 gap, the basis for WHO's two-dose IPV recommendation. |
| Seroconversion to poliovirus type 2 (surrogate) severity: surrogate (antibody) strain: poliovirus type 2 case definition: Neutralising antibody seroconversion against type 2 at 8 weeks | newborns (doses at 0-3 days and 4 weeks) country: Bangladesh setting: LMIC, phase 2 RCT period: 2020-2021 n: 220 nOPV2 and 110 placebo NeonateInfant <1y | novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 (nOPV2) platform: live attenuated oral, genetically stabilised doses: 2 vs placebo | 90 proportion seroconverting (%), 2 doses | RCT | Zaman et al. 2023 LancetquoteIn the nOPV2 group 196 (90%) of 217 infants seroconverted by week 8 after two doses, when 214 (99%) had seroprotective antibodies. abstract, FINDINGS 99% had seroprotective antibodies after two doses, partly reflecting maternal antibody (most infants seroprotected at birth). |
| Seroconversion to poliovirus type 2 after one nOPV2 dose (surrogate) severity: surrogate (antibody) strain: poliovirus type 2 case definition: Type 2 neutralising antibody seroconversion, per-protocol, three production lots | infants aged 18 to under 52 weeks country: The Gambia setting: LMIC, phase 3 RCT period: 2021 n: 2272 infants per protocol Infant <1y | novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 (nOPV2) platform: live attenuated oral, genetically stabilised doses: 1 vs bivalent OPV arm (lot-to-lot equivalence was the primary objective) | 48.9 to 49.2 proportion seroconverting (%), 1 dose (range across lots) | RCT | Ochoge et al. 2024 LancetquoteSeroconversion rates ranged from 48·9% to 49·2% across the three lots. abstract, FINDINGS Single-dose response is about half; two doses raised seroconversion substantially in baseline-seronegative infants (next record). |
| Seroconversion to poliovirus type 2 after two nOPV2 doses (surrogate) severity: surrogate (antibody) strain: poliovirus type 2 case definition: Type 2 seroconversion among infants seronegative at baseline | infants aged 18 to under 52 weeks, seronegative at baseline country: The Gambia setting: LMIC, phase 3 RCT period: 2021 n: 167 seronegative infants Infant <1y | novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 (nOPV2) platform: live attenuated oral, genetically stabilised doses: 2 vs bivalent OPV arm | 85.6 (79.4–90.6) proportion seroconverting (%), 2 doses | RCT | Ochoge et al. 2024 LancetquoteOf those seronegative at baseline, 143 (85·6%) of 167 (95% CI 79·4-90·6) infants and 54 (83·1%) of 65 (71·7-91·2) young children seroconverted over the two-dose nOPV2 schedule. abstract, FINDINGS Young children aged 1 to under 5 years: 83.1% (71.7-91.2) in the same sentence. |
| Faecal shedding of poliovirus type 1 after bOPV challenge (intestinal immunity boost) severity: surrogate (intestinal immunity) strain: poliovirus type 1 case definition: Any shedding at 3, 7 or 14 days after bOPV challenge given 4 weeks after study vaccine | three age groups: 6-11 months, 5 years, 10 years country: India setting: OPV-vaccinated population, LMIC, RCT n: 954 participants completed Infant <1y1-4y5-11y | inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) booster platform: inactivated, intramuscular doses: 1 (booster in previously OPV-vaccinated) vs no vaccine: 14.4, 24.1 and 52.4% shedding | 8.8, 9.1, and 13.5 proportion shedding (%) in IPV group by age group | RCT | Jafari et al. 2014 SciencequoteAny fecal shedding of poliovirus type 1 was 8.8, 9.1, and 13.5% in the IPV group and 14.4, 24.1, and 52.4% in the control group by 6- to 11-month, 5-year, and 10-year groups, respectively (IPV versus control: Fisher's exact test P < 0.001). abstract In people already primed by OPV, an IPV dose boosts intestinal immunity; this is distinct from the null effect of IPV alone in OPV-naive people (mucosal meta-analysis record). |
| Single-dose seroconversion to poliovirus type 1 (surrogate), fractional intradermal IPV severity: surrogate (antibody) strain: poliovirus type 1 case definition: Neutralisation assay seroconversion after one dose at 4 months | infants aged 4 months country: Cuba setting: middle-income, RCT n: 310 infants Infant <1y | fractional-dose IPV (one fifth, intradermal) platform: inactivated, intradermal doses: 1 vs full-dose intramuscular IPV: 46.6%, 62.8%, 32.0% for types 1, 2, 3 | 16.6 proportion seroconverting (%), 1 dose | RCT | Resik et al. 2013 N Engl J MedquoteIn the group receiving the first fractional dose of IPV, seroconversion to poliovirus types 1, 2, and 3 occurred in 16.6%, 47.1%, and 14.7% of participants, respectively, as compared with 46.6%, 62.8%, and 32.0% in the group receiving the first full dose of IPV (P<0.008 for all comparisons). abstract, RESULTS Priming was high for all types in both groups, and cumulative two-dose seroconversion was above ninety percent with fractional doses and near-complete with full doses. |
| Vaccine response to poliovirus type 1 at 22 weeks (surrogate) severity: surrogate (antibody) strain: poliovirus type 1 case definition: Seroconversion or four-fold rise adjusted for maternal antibody decay | infants, doses at 6 and 14 weeks country: Bangladesh setting: LMIC, RCT period: 2016-2017 n: 1076 infants Infant <1y | fractional-dose IPV (0.1 mL intradermal), two doses platform: inactivated, intradermal doses: 2 fractional vs one full intramuscular IPV dose at 14 weeks: 57% (53-61) | 79 (73–83) proportion responding (%), two fractional doses | RCT | Snider et al. 2019 LancetquoteVaccine response at 22 weeks to two doses of fIPV (group D) was significantly higher (p<0·0001) than to one dose of IPV (groups A and B) for all three poliovirus serotypes: the type 1 response comprised 212 (79% [95% CI 73-83]) versus 305 (57% [53-61]) participants, the type 2 response comprised 173 (64% [58-70]) versus 249 (46% [42-51]) participants, and the type 3 response comprised 196 (73% [67-78]) versus 196 (36% [33-41]) participants. abstract, FINDINGS Two fractional doses beat one full dose for all three types (type 2: 64% vs 46%; type 3: 73% vs 36%); supports fIPV as a dose-sparing strategy. |
| Type 1 paralytic poliomyelitis severity: paralysis strain: wild poliovirus type 1 case definition: Confirmed wild poliovirus type 1 poliomyelitis vs non-polio AFP controls | children aged 0-23 months (population immunity estimate); AFP cases country: India (Uttar Pradesh) setting: areas of persistent transmission, high diarrhoea prevalence, LMIC period: 2005-2006 n: 2076 matched case-control pairs Infant <1y1-4y | monovalent type 1 OPV (mOPV1), high potency platform: live attenuated oral doses: per dose (supplementary immunisation) vs non-polio acute flaccid paralysis controls, fewer doses | 30 (19–41) VE (%) per dose | case-control | Grassly et al. 2007 LancetquoteFINDINGS: In areas of persistent poliovirus transmission in Uttar Pradesh, the protective efficacy of mOPV1 was estimated to be 30% (95% CI 19-41) per dose against type 1 paralytic disease, compared with 11% (7-14) for the trivalent oral vaccine. abstract, FINDINGS Per-dose efficacy, not full-series efficacy; many doses are given in campaigns. Same sentence gives trivalent OPV at a far lower per-dose efficacy (next record). |
| Type 1 paralytic poliomyelitis severity: paralysis strain: wild poliovirus type 1 case definition: Confirmed wild poliovirus type 1 poliomyelitis vs non-polio AFP controls | children aged 0-23 months (population immunity estimate); AFP cases country: India (Uttar Pradesh) setting: areas of persistent transmission, high diarrhoea prevalence, LMIC period: 2005-2006 n: 2076 matched case-control pairs Infant <1y1-4y | trivalent OPV (tOPV) platform: live attenuated oral doses: per dose vs non-polio acute flaccid paralysis controls, fewer doses | 11 (7–14) VE (%) per dose | case-control | Grassly et al. 2007 LancetquoteFINDINGS: In areas of persistent poliovirus transmission in Uttar Pradesh, the protective efficacy of mOPV1 was estimated to be 30% (95% CI 19-41) per dose against type 1 paralytic disease, compared with 11% (7-14) for the trivalent oral vaccine. abstract, FINDINGS Low per-dose efficacy of tOPV in the highest-transmission setting on record; the Pink Book seroconversion figure after three tOPV doses applies to industrialised countries. |
| Type 1 paralytic poliomyelitis severity: paralysis strain: wild poliovirus type 1 case definition: Poliomyelitis cases vs matched non-polio AFP controls from national surveillance | children with acute flaccid paralysis (under 15 years) country: Nigeria setting: national AFP surveillance, LMIC period: 2001-2007 n: 27,379 AFP cases in database Infant <1y1-4y5-11y12-17y | monovalent type 1 OPV (mOPV1) platform: live attenuated oral doses: per dose vs matched non-polio AFP controls, fewer doses | 67 (39–82) VE (%) per dose | case-control | Jenkins et al. 2008 N Engl J MedquoteRESULTS: The estimated efficacies per dose of monovalent type 1 oral poliovirus vaccine and trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine against type 1 paralytic poliomyelitis were 67% (95% confidence interval [CI], 39 to 82) and 16% (95% CI, 10 to 21), respectively, and the estimated efficacy per dose of trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine against type 3 paralytic poliomyelitis was 18% (95% CI, 9 to 26). abstract, RESULTS |
| Type 1 paralytic poliomyelitis severity: paralysis strain: wild poliovirus type 1 case definition: Poliomyelitis cases vs matched non-polio AFP controls from national surveillance | children with acute flaccid paralysis (under 15 years) country: Nigeria setting: national AFP surveillance, LMIC period: 2001-2007 Infant <1y1-4y5-11y12-17y | trivalent OPV (tOPV) platform: live attenuated oral doses: per dose vs matched non-polio AFP controls, fewer doses | 16 (10–21) VE (%) per dose | case-control | Jenkins et al. 2008 N Engl J MedquoteRESULTS: The estimated efficacies per dose of monovalent type 1 oral poliovirus vaccine and trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine against type 1 paralytic poliomyelitis were 67% (95% confidence interval [CI], 39 to 82) and 16% (95% CI, 10 to 21), respectively, and the estimated efficacy per dose of trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine against type 3 paralytic poliomyelitis was 18% (95% CI, 9 to 26). abstract, RESULTS |
| Type 3 paralytic poliomyelitis severity: paralysis strain: wild poliovirus type 3 case definition: Poliomyelitis cases vs matched non-polio AFP controls from national surveillance | children with acute flaccid paralysis (under 15 years) country: Nigeria setting: national AFP surveillance, LMIC period: 2001-2007 Infant <1y1-4y5-11y12-17y | trivalent OPV (tOPV) platform: live attenuated oral doses: per dose vs matched non-polio AFP controls, fewer doses | 18 (9–26) VE (%) per dose | case-control | Jenkins et al. 2008 N Engl J MedquoteRESULTS: The estimated efficacies per dose of monovalent type 1 oral poliovirus vaccine and trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine against type 1 paralytic poliomyelitis were 67% (95% confidence interval [CI], 39 to 82) and 16% (95% CI, 10 to 21), respectively, and the estimated efficacy per dose of trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine against type 3 paralytic poliomyelitis was 18% (95% CI, 9 to 26). abstract, RESULTS |
| Serotype 1 paralytic poliomyelitis severity: paralysis strain: wild poliovirus type 1 case definition: Confirmed poliomyelitis vs non-polio AFP, national surveillance, bootstrap CIs | children with AFP (immunity estimated for under 36 months) country: Nigeria setting: national AFP surveillance, LMIC period: 2001-2012 Infant <1y1-4y5-11y | monovalent OPV (mOPV1) platform: live attenuated oral doses: per dose vs non-polio AFP controls, fewer doses | 32.1 (26.1–38.1) VE (%) per dose (median) | case-control | Mangal et al. 2014 Lancet Glob HealthquoteFINDINGS: Against serotype 1, both monovalent OPV (median 32.1%, 95% CI 26.1-38.1) and bivalent OPV (29.5%, 20.1-38.4) had higher clinical efficacy than trivalent OPV (19.4%, 16.1-22.8). abstract, FINDINGS Lower than the earlier Nigerian mOPV1 estimate from the same surveillance system over a shorter period; efficacy was significantly lower in northern than southern states. |
| Serotype 1 paralytic poliomyelitis severity: paralysis strain: wild poliovirus type 1 case definition: Confirmed poliomyelitis vs non-polio AFP, national surveillance, bootstrap CIs | children with AFP (immunity estimated for under 36 months) country: Nigeria setting: national AFP surveillance, LMIC period: 2001-2012 Infant <1y1-4y5-11y | bivalent OPV types 1 and 3 (bOPV) platform: live attenuated oral doses: per dose vs non-polio AFP controls, fewer doses | 29.5 (20.1–38.4) VE (%) per dose | case-control | Mangal et al. 2014 Lancet Glob HealthquoteFINDINGS: Against serotype 1, both monovalent OPV (median 32.1%, 95% CI 26.1-38.1) and bivalent OPV (29.5%, 20.1-38.4) had higher clinical efficacy than trivalent OPV (19.4%, 16.1-22.8). abstract, FINDINGS |
| Serotype 1 paralytic poliomyelitis severity: paralysis strain: wild poliovirus type 1 case definition: Confirmed poliomyelitis vs non-polio AFP, national surveillance, bootstrap CIs | children with AFP (immunity estimated for under 36 months) country: Nigeria setting: national AFP surveillance, LMIC period: 2001-2012 Infant <1y1-4y5-11y | trivalent OPV (tOPV) platform: live attenuated oral doses: per dose vs non-polio AFP controls, fewer doses | 19.4 (16.1–22.8) VE (%) per dose | case-control | Mangal et al. 2014 Lancet Glob HealthquoteFINDINGS: Against serotype 1, both monovalent OPV (median 32.1%, 95% CI 26.1-38.1) and bivalent OPV (29.5%, 20.1-38.4) had higher clinical efficacy than trivalent OPV (19.4%, 16.1-22.8). abstract, FINDINGS |
| Serotype 3 paralytic poliomyelitis severity: paralysis strain: wild poliovirus type 3 case definition: Confirmed poliomyelitis vs non-polio AFP, national surveillance, bootstrap CIs | children with AFP (immunity estimated for under 36 months) country: Nigeria setting: national AFP surveillance, LMIC period: 2001-2012 Infant <1y1-4y5-11y | monovalent OPV type 3 (mOPV3) platform: live attenuated oral doses: per dose vs non-polio AFP controls, fewer doses | 43.2 (23.1–61.1) VE (%) per dose | case-control | Mangal et al. 2014 Lancet Glob HealthquoteCorresponding data for serotype 3 were 43.2% (23.1-61.1) and 23.8% (5.3-44.9) compared with 18.0% (14.1-22.1). abstract, FINDINGS Same sentence gives bOPV and tOPV against serotype 3 (next two records). |
| Serotype 3 paralytic poliomyelitis severity: paralysis strain: wild poliovirus type 3 case definition: Confirmed poliomyelitis vs non-polio AFP, national surveillance, bootstrap CIs | children with AFP (immunity estimated for under 36 months) country: Nigeria setting: national AFP surveillance, LMIC period: 2001-2012 Infant <1y1-4y5-11y | bivalent OPV types 1 and 3 (bOPV) platform: live attenuated oral doses: per dose vs non-polio AFP controls, fewer doses | 23.8 (5.3–44.9) VE (%) per dose | case-control | Mangal et al. 2014 Lancet Glob HealthquoteCorresponding data for serotype 3 were 43.2% (23.1-61.1) and 23.8% (5.3-44.9) compared with 18.0% (14.1-22.1). abstract, FINDINGS |
| Serotype 3 paralytic poliomyelitis severity: paralysis strain: wild poliovirus type 3 case definition: Confirmed poliomyelitis vs non-polio AFP, national surveillance, bootstrap CIs | children with AFP (immunity estimated for under 36 months) country: Nigeria setting: national AFP surveillance, LMIC period: 2001-2012 Infant <1y1-4y5-11y | trivalent OPV (tOPV) platform: live attenuated oral doses: per dose vs non-polio AFP controls, fewer doses | 18.0 (14.1–22.1) VE (%) per dose | case-control | Mangal et al. 2014 Lancet Glob HealthquoteCorresponding data for serotype 3 were 43.2% (23.1-61.1) and 23.8% (5.3-44.9) compared with 18.0% (14.1-22.1). abstract, FINDINGS |
| Serotype 1 paralytic poliomyelitis severity: paralysis strain: wild poliovirus type 1 case definition: Poliomyelitis vs other-cause AFP, conditional logistic regression | children aged 0-14 years country: Pakistan and Afghanistan setting: national AFP surveillance, LMIC, conflict-affected areas period: 2001-2011 n: 46,977 AFP cases in database; 883 serotype 1 cases Infant <1y1-4y5-11y12-17y | trivalent OPV (tOPV) platform: live attenuated oral doses: per dose vs children with AFP from other causes, fewer doses | 12.5 (5.6–18.8) VE (%) per dose | case-control | O'Reilly et al. 2012 LancetquoteThe estimated clinical effectiveness of a dose of trivalent OPV against serotype 1 poliomyelitis was 12·5% (95% CI 5·6-18·8) compared with 34·5% (16·1-48·9) for monovalent OPV (p=0·007) and 23·4% (10·4-34·6) for bivalent OPV (p=0·067). abstract, FINDINGS Same sentence gives mOPV and bOPV per dose (next two records); bOPV was non-inferior to mOPV. |
| Serotype 1 paralytic poliomyelitis severity: paralysis strain: wild poliovirus type 1 case definition: Poliomyelitis vs other-cause AFP, conditional logistic regression | children aged 0-14 years country: Pakistan and Afghanistan setting: national AFP surveillance, LMIC, conflict-affected areas period: 2001-2011 Infant <1y1-4y5-11y12-17y | monovalent OPV type 1 (mOPV1) platform: live attenuated oral doses: per dose vs children with AFP from other causes, fewer doses | 34.5 (16.1–48.9) VE (%) per dose | case-control | O'Reilly et al. 2012 LancetquoteThe estimated clinical effectiveness of a dose of trivalent OPV against serotype 1 poliomyelitis was 12·5% (95% CI 5·6-18·8) compared with 34·5% (16·1-48·9) for monovalent OPV (p=0·007) and 23·4% (10·4-34·6) for bivalent OPV (p=0·067). abstract, FINDINGS |
| Serotype 1 paralytic poliomyelitis severity: paralysis strain: wild poliovirus type 1 case definition: Poliomyelitis vs other-cause AFP, conditional logistic regression | children aged 0-14 years country: Pakistan and Afghanistan setting: national AFP surveillance, LMIC, conflict-affected areas period: 2001-2011 Infant <1y1-4y5-11y12-17y | bivalent OPV types 1 and 3 (bOPV) platform: live attenuated oral doses: per dose vs children with AFP from other causes, fewer doses | 23.4 (10.4–34.6) VE (%) per dose | case-control | O'Reilly et al. 2012 LancetquoteThe estimated clinical effectiveness of a dose of trivalent OPV against serotype 1 poliomyelitis was 12·5% (95% CI 5·6-18·8) compared with 34·5% (16·1-48·9) for monovalent OPV (p=0·007) and 23·4% (10·4-34·6) for bivalent OPV (p=0·067). abstract, FINDINGS |
| Acute paralytic poliomyelitis severity: paralysis case definition: Hospitalised clinical paralytic polio, 60% stool-culture confirmed, vs outpatient controls | children aged 6-35 months country: India (Madras) setting: urban hospital-based, LMIC period: 1988-1989 n: 78 cases and 315 controls Infant <1y1-4y | trivalent OPV (tOPV) platform: live attenuated oral doses: 3 vs unvaccinated or fewer than 3 doses, age- and sex-matched outpatient controls | 81 (58–91) VE (%) | case-control | Deivanayagam et al. 1993 Bull World Health OrganquoteVaccine efficacy observed for TOPV3 was 81% (95% CI, 58-91%) for the 6-35-month age group and 86% (95% CI, 67-94%) for the 6-23-month age group. abstract Same sentence gives a higher figure in the youngest age group and an age-adjusted estimate (next record). Full-series efficacy is far higher than the per-dose figures from Uttar Pradesh and Nigeria, but still well below the near-complete protection seen in industrialised countries. |
| Acute paralytic poliomyelitis severity: paralysis case definition: Hospitalised clinical paralytic polio, 60% stool-culture confirmed, vs outpatient controls | children aged 6-35 months country: India (Madras) setting: urban hospital-based, LMIC period: 1988-1989 n: 78 cases and 315 controls Infant <1y1-4y | trivalent OPV (tOPV) platform: live attenuated oral doses: 3 vs unvaccinated or fewer than 3 doses, matched outpatient controls | 83 (67–91) VE (%), age-adjusted (Mantel-Haenszel) | case-control | Deivanayagam et al. 1993 Bull World Health OrganquoteVaccine efficacy, after controlling for age using the Mantel-Haenszel method, was 83% (95% CI, 67-91%). abstract |
| Paralytic poliomyelitis (type 1 epidemic) severity: paralysis strain: wild poliovirus type 1 case definition: Physician-diagnosed paralytic polio in the 1986 epidemic vs neighbourhood controls | children aged 1-7 years country: The Gambia setting: nationwide epidemic, LMIC period: 1986 n: 195 cases and 839 controls 1-4y5-11y | trivalent OPV (tOPV) platform: live attenuated oral doses: 3 or more vs zero doses (children without cards counted as unvaccinated) | 72 (57–82) VE (%) | case-control | Deming et al. 1992 Am J EpidemiolquoteIn a matched analysis of 195 cases and 839 controls, the efficacy of three or more doses of trivalent oral polio vaccine was 72% (95% confidence interval 57-82) when children without vaccination cards were considered unvaccinated. abstract Counting card-less children as unvaccinated biases VE downward if some were vaccinated; the youngest subgroup with better records gave a higher figure (next record). |
| Paralytic poliomyelitis (type 1 epidemic) severity: paralysis strain: wild poliovirus type 1 case definition: Physician-diagnosed paralytic polio in the 1986 epidemic vs neighbourhood controls | children aged 1-2 years country: The Gambia setting: nationwide epidemic, LMIC period: 1986 1-4y | trivalent OPV (tOPV) platform: live attenuated oral doses: 3 or more vs zero doses, neighbourhood controls matched on age and sex | 81 (66–90) VE (%) | case-control | Deming et al. 1992 Am J EpidemiolquoteThe efficacy of three or more doses in 1- to 2-year-old children, in whom the determination of vaccination status was considered to be more accurate than in older children, was 81% (95% confidence interval 66-90). abstract |
| Vaccine failure (paralytic polio despite 3 documented OPV doses) severity: paralysis strain: wild poliovirus type 1 case definition: Poliomyelitis cases with three card-documented doses vs controls with three documented doses | children aged 1-7 years country: The Gambia setting: nationwide, LMIC period: 1986 epidemic n: 46 cases and 260 controls 1-4y5-11y | trivalent OPV (tOPV) platform: live attenuated oral doses: 3 (season of administration compared) vs fully vaccinated controls whose doses were given in the dry season | 1.7 (1.05–2.9) OR for vaccine failure per additional dose given in the rainy season | case-control | Deming et al. 1997 J Infect DisquoteChildren with poliomyelitis were more likely to have received doses in the rainy season (odds ratio describing the linear trend of each additional dose in the rainy season, 1.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-2.9). abstract Season of OPV administration (a proxy for concurrent enteric infection) modifies protection; see the enteric-infection meta-analysis record for seroconversion. |
| Paralytic poliomyelitis (type 1 outbreak) severity: paralysis strain: wild poliovirus type 1 case definition: Case-patients vs age-matched controls in the 1988-1989 outbreak | children (incidence highest under 2 years) country: Oman setting: outbreak, middle-income Gulf state period: 1988-1989 n: 70 case-patients and 692 controls Infant <1y1-4y | trivalent OPV (tOPV) platform: live attenuated oral doses: 3 vs unvaccinated age-matched controls | 91 VE (%) | case-control | Sutter et al. 1991 Lancetquote3 doses of OPV reduced the risk of paralysis by 91%; vaccine failures could not be explained by failures in the cold chain nor on suboptimum vaccine potency. abstract No CI in the abstract. Vaccine failures were not explained by cold-chain or potency problems; delay in completing the series until 7 months and widespread infection among fully vaccinated children sustained the outbreak. |
| Paralytic poliomyelitis (WPV1 outbreak) severity: paralysis strain: wild poliovirus type 1 case definition: AFP with virological confirmation of WPV1 vs non-polio AFP controls | children with AFP country: Somalia setting: outbreak, LMIC, conflict-affected period: 2013 n: 99 cases and 99 NPAFP controls Infant <1y1-4y5-11y | oral polio vaccine (OPV, trivalent and bivalent campaign doses) platform: live attenuated oral doses: any (1 or more) vs unvaccinated, non-polio AFP controls matched on age, onset date and region | 70 (37–86) VE (%), any OPV | case-control | Mahamud et al. 2014 J Infect DisquoteUsing NPAFP controls, the overall VE was 70% (95% confidence interval [CI], 37-86), 59% (2-83) among 1-3 dose recipients, 77% (95% CI, 46-91) among ≥4 dose recipients. abstract, RESULT Same sentence gives dose-stratified estimates (next two records). Neighbourhood controls gave much higher VE, a reminder that the control group drives polio VE estimates. |
| Paralytic poliomyelitis (WPV1 outbreak) severity: paralysis strain: wild poliovirus type 1 case definition: AFP with virological confirmation of WPV1 vs non-polio AFP controls | children with AFP country: Somalia setting: outbreak, LMIC, conflict-affected period: 2013 Infant <1y1-4y5-11y | oral polio vaccine (OPV) platform: live attenuated oral doses: 1-3 vs unvaccinated, non-polio AFP controls | 59 (2–83) VE (%) | case-control | Mahamud et al. 2014 J Infect DisquoteUsing NPAFP controls, the overall VE was 70% (95% confidence interval [CI], 37-86), 59% (2-83) among 1-3 dose recipients, 77% (95% CI, 46-91) among ≥4 dose recipients. abstract, RESULT |
| Paralytic poliomyelitis (WPV1 outbreak) severity: paralysis strain: wild poliovirus type 1 case definition: AFP with virological confirmation of WPV1 vs non-polio AFP controls | children with AFP country: Somalia setting: outbreak, LMIC, conflict-affected period: 2013 Infant <1y1-4y5-11y | oral polio vaccine (OPV) platform: live attenuated oral doses: 4 or more vs unvaccinated, non-polio AFP controls | 77 (46–91) VE (%) | case-control | Mahamud et al. 2014 J Infect DisquoteUsing NPAFP controls, the overall VE was 70% (95% confidence interval [CI], 37-86), 59% (2-83) among 1-3 dose recipients, 77% (95% CI, 46-91) among ≥4 dose recipients. abstract, RESULT |
| Paralytic poliomyelitis (WPV1 outbreak) severity: paralysis strain: wild poliovirus type 1 case definition: AFP with virological confirmation of WPV1 vs asymptomatic neighbourhood controls | children country: Somalia setting: outbreak, LMIC, conflict-affected period: 2013 n: 134 cases and 268 neighbourhood controls Infant <1y1-4y5-11y | oral polio vaccine (OPV) platform: live attenuated oral doses: any (1 or more) vs unvaccinated, asymptomatic neighbourhood controls matched on age | 95 (84–98) VE (%), any OPV | case-control | Mahamud et al. 2014 J Infect DisquoteIn neighborhood controls, the overall VE was 95% (95% CI, 84-98), 92% (72-98) among 1-3 dose recipients, and 97% (89-99) among ≥4 dose recipients. abstract, RESULT Same sentence gives dose-stratified estimates. Neighbourhood controls can overstate VE if vaccination correlates with lower exposure; NPAFP controls may understate it. |
| Paralytic poliomyelitis (WPV1 outbreak) severity: paralysis strain: wild poliovirus type 1 case definition: AFP with virological confirmation of WPV1, restricted to children 24 months and under | children 24 months and younger country: Somalia setting: outbreak, LMIC, conflict-affected period: 2013 Infant <1y1-4y | oral polio vaccine (OPV) platform: live attenuated oral doses: any (1 or more) vs unvaccinated non-polio AFP controls (neighbourhood controls gave 97%, 76-100) | 95 (65–99) VE (%), any OPV, NPAFP controls | case-control | Mahamud et al. 2014 J Infect DisquoteWhen the analysis was limited to cases and controls ≤24 months old, the overall VE in NPAFP and neighborhood controls was 95% (95% CI, 65-99) and 97% (95% CI, 76-100), respectively. abstract, RESULT |
| Paralytic poliomyelitis (lameness survey) severity: paralysis case definition: Paralytic polio in the previous 12 months identified by community survey vs age-matched controls in the same block | children under five country: India (North Arcot District, rural) setting: rural community, LMIC period: 1988 n: 67 cases Infant <1y1-4y | trivalent OPV (tOPV) platform: live attenuated oral doses: 3 vs zero doses, children matched on exact age in months | 62 VE (%) | case-control | Balraj et al. 1990 Int J EpidemiolquoteIn a case-control analysis, the vaccine efficacy (VE) was 62% for all under-fives; for the 12-23 months age group it was 71.4%. abstract Same sentence gives a higher figure for the second year of life. No CI in the abstract. The authors call this disappointingly low for a vaccine they consider capable of near-complete protection. |
| Paralytic poliomyelitis with residual paralysis severity: paralysis case definition: Confirmed poliomyelitis with residual paralysis in the 1986-87 Senegal outbreak vs up to 5 matched controls | children (outbreak cases) country: Senegal (Kolda region) setting: outbreak, LMIC period: 1986-1987 n: 89 cases Infant <1y1-4y5-11y | enhanced-potency inactivated poliovirus vaccine (N-IPV) platform: inactivated, intramuscular doses: 1 vs unvaccinated matched controls | 36 (0–67) VE (%) | case-control | Robertson et al. 1988 LancetquoteThe clinical efficacy for one dose of N-IPV was 36% (95% confidence interval 0%, 67%) and for two doses was 89% (95% CI 62%, 97%). abstract Same sentence gives the two-dose figure (next record). The only field efficacy estimate for enhanced IPV against paralysis in a tropical LMIC setting; wide CIs. |
| Paralytic poliomyelitis with residual paralysis severity: paralysis case definition: Confirmed poliomyelitis with residual paralysis in the 1986-87 Senegal outbreak vs up to 5 matched controls | children (outbreak cases) country: Senegal (Kolda region) setting: outbreak, LMIC period: 1986-1987 n: 89 cases Infant <1y1-4y5-11y | enhanced-potency inactivated poliovirus vaccine (N-IPV) platform: inactivated, intramuscular doses: 2 vs unvaccinated matched controls | 89 (62–97) VE (%) | case-control | Robertson et al. 1988 LancetquoteThe clinical efficacy for one dose of N-IPV was 36% (95% confidence interval 0%, 67%) and for two doses was 89% (95% CI 62%, 97%). abstract |
| cVDPV2 paralytic poliomyelitis severity: paralysis strain: cVDPV2 case definition: Verified cVDPV2 poliomyelitis vs cVDPV2-negative AFP cases matched on age, onset and location (test-negative design) | children younger than 60 months born after May 2016 country: Nigeria setting: outbreak response campaigns, LMIC period: 2017-2022 n: 363 cases and 1303 test-negative controls Infant <1y1-4y | novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 (nOPV2) platform: live attenuated oral, genetically stabilised doses: per campaign dose vs test-negative AFP controls, fewer doses | 12 (-2–25) VE (%) per dose | test-negative | Cooper et al. 2024 Lancet Infect DisquoteWe found low per-dose effectiveness of nOPV2 (12%, 95% CI -2 to 25) and mOPV2 (17%, 3 to 29), but no significant difference between the two vaccines (p=0·67). abstract, FINDINGS Per-dose effectiveness is low for both nOPV2 and mOPV2 (next record) with no significant difference between them. Dose histories are caregiver-reported, which biases per-dose estimates toward the null. |
| cVDPV2 paralytic poliomyelitis severity: paralysis strain: cVDPV2 case definition: Verified cVDPV2 poliomyelitis vs cVDPV2-negative AFP cases (test-negative design) | children younger than 60 months born after May 2016 country: Nigeria setting: outbreak response campaigns, LMIC period: 2017-2022 Infant <1y1-4y | monovalent Sabin type 2 OPV (mOPV2) platform: live attenuated oral doses: per campaign dose vs test-negative AFP controls, fewer doses | 17 (3–29) VE (%) per dose | test-negative | Cooper et al. 2024 Lancet Infect DisquoteWe found low per-dose effectiveness of nOPV2 (12%, 95% CI -2 to 25) and mOPV2 (17%, 3 to 29), but no significant difference between the two vaccines (p=0·67). abstract, FINDINGS |
| cVDPV2 paralytic poliomyelitis severity: paralysis strain: cVDPV2 case definition: Verified cVDPV2 poliomyelitis vs cVDPV2-negative AFP cases (test-negative design) | children younger than 60 months born after May 2016 country: Nigeria setting: routine immunisation, LMIC period: 2017-2022 Infant <1y1-4y | inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) platform: inactivated, intramuscular doses: 1 vs no IPV, test-negative AFP controls | 43 (23–58) VE (%) | test-negative | Cooper et al. 2024 Lancet Infect DisquoteThe estimated effectiveness of one IPV dose was 43% (23 to 58). abstract, FINDINGS With community controls the same study gave a much higher estimate for one IPV dose (next record). |
| cVDPV2 paralytic poliomyelitis severity: paralysis strain: cVDPV2 case definition: Verified cVDPV2 poliomyelitis vs age-matched community controls from the same settlement (prospective) | children younger than 60 months country: Nigeria setting: prospective community-control study, LMIC period: March 2021-December 2022 n: 181 cases and 1557 community controls Infant <1y1-4y | inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) platform: inactivated, intramuscular doses: 1 vs no IPV, age-matched community controls | 89 (83–93) VE (%) | case-control | Cooper et al. 2024 Lancet Infect DisquoteUsing community controls, we found a high effectiveness of IPV (89%, 95% CI 83 to 93, for one dose), a low per-dose effectiveness of nOPV2 (-23%, -45 to -5) and mOPV2 (1%, -23 to 20), and no significant difference between the per-dose effectiveness of nOPV2 and mOPV2 (p=0·12). abstract, FINDINGS |
| cVDPV2 paralytic poliomyelitis severity: paralysis strain: cVDPV2 case definition: Verified cVDPV2 poliomyelitis vs age-matched community controls (prospective) | children younger than 60 months country: Nigeria setting: prospective community-control study, LMIC period: March 2021-December 2022 Infant <1y1-4y | novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 (nOPV2) platform: live attenuated oral, genetically stabilised doses: per campaign dose vs community controls, fewer doses | -23 (-45–-5) VE (%) per dose | case-control | Cooper et al. 2024 Lancet Infect DisquoteUsing community controls, we found a high effectiveness of IPV (89%, 95% CI 83 to 93, for one dose), a low per-dose effectiveness of nOPV2 (-23%, -45 to -5) and mOPV2 (1%, -23 to 20), and no significant difference between the per-dose effectiveness of nOPV2 and mOPV2 (p=0·12). abstract, FINDINGS Negative point estimate. Same sentence gives mOPV2 near zero, no significant difference. The authors attribute low per-dose OPV2 estimates to recall and reporting of campaign doses and to campaigns targeting high-risk areas; the finding is included unselected, as the rules require, and flagged. |
| Population seroprevalence of poliovirus antibody (surrogate of population immunity) severity: surrogate (antibody) strain: poliovirus type 1 case definition: Serum neutralising antibody in NHANES 2009-2010 | US population across age groups country: United States setting: national survey, IPV-only schedule since 2000 period: 2009-2010 All ages | routine polio vaccination (IPV-only since 2000; OPV in earlier cohorts) platform: mixed doses: as per routine schedule vs none (population survey) | 93.9 seroprevalence (%) | surveillance | Wallace et al. 2016 BMC Public HealthquoteRESULTS: The overall seroprevalence to poliovirus was 93.9 % for type 1, 97.0 % for type 2, and 83.1 % for type 3. abstract, RESULTS Type 2: 97.0%, type 3: 83.1%. The lower type 3 figure is the recognised weak point of population immunity in IPV-only countries. |
| Reduction in the population susceptible to cVDPV2 per campaign severity: transmission (population-level) strain: cVDPV2 case definition: Bayesian time-series SIR model fitted to cVDPV2 case data | children targeted by campaigns (under 5) country: Nigeria setting: outbreak response campaigns, LMIC period: 2021 onward Infant <1y1-4y | novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 (nOPV2) platform: live attenuated oral, genetically stabilised doses: per campaign vs mOPV2 campaigns (38%, 20-51; relative effect 1.1, 0.7-1.9) | 42 (28–54) reduction in susceptible population per campaign (%) | modelling | Voorman et al. 2024 J Infect DisquoteRESULTS: We found that both nOPV2 and mOPV2 campaigns were highly effective in reducing transmission of cVDPV2, on average reducing the susceptible population by 42% (95% confidence interval, 28-54%) and 38% (20-51%) per campaign, respectively, which were indistinguishable from each other in this analysis (relative effect, 1.1 [.7-1.9]). abstract, RESULTS Model-based population impact, not individual VE. Impact varied across areas and campaigns. |
Vaccine safety and adverse events
Harms measured after vaccination against an unvaccinated or baseline comparator. Kept separate from post-acute sequelae, which follow the disease, not the vaccine.
| Outcome (O) | Population (P) | Intervention / comparator | Estimate | Design (S) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis (VAPP) severity: paralysis case definition: VAPP cases per birth cohort, pooled from published risk estimates | birth cohorts (recipients and contacts) country: multiple setting: literature review, bootstrap global estimate period: studies to 2014 All ages | oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) platform: live attenuated oral doses: any vs births in OPV-using populations (no unvaccinated comparator) | 4.7 (2.4–9.7) VAPP cases per million births | systematic review | Platt et al. 2014 J Infect DisquoteUsing all risk estimates, VAPP risk was 4.7 cases per million births (range, 2.4-9.7), leading to a global annual burden estimate of 498 cases (range, 255-1018). abstract, RESULTS The bounds are a range across risk estimates, not a confidence interval. The same abstract gives a global annual case burden and a lower rate restricted to countries still using OPV. In the low-income country most cases occurred after more than 3 doses, in middle- and high-income countries mostly after the first dose or in unvaccinated contacts. |
| Vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis (VAPP) severity: paralysis case definition: VAPP cases in nationwide before-after and interrupted time series studies | infants and children on national schedules country: multiple setting: nationwide programmes Infant <1y1-4y5-11y | sequential schedule: IPV followed by OPV platform: inactivated then live attenuated oral doses: 1 or more IPV then OPV vs OPV-only schedule | 54 to 100 reduction in VAPP cases (%) range | systematic review GRADE: low 3 nationwide studies | Ciapponi et al. 2019 Cochrane Database Syst RevquoteIPV-OPV versus OPV It is uncertain if an IPV followed by OPV schedule is better than OPV alone at reducing the number of WPV cases (very low-certainty evidence); however, it may reduce VAPP cases by 54% to 100% (three nationwide studies; low-certainty evidence). abstract, MAIN RESULTS (IPV-OPV versus OPV) Low-certainty evidence from non-randomised national data. Effect on wild poliovirus cases was uncertain (very low certainty); serious adverse events did not differ. |
| VAPP among people with immunodeficiency-associated vaccine-derived poliovirus infection severity: paralysis case definition: Published iVDPV cases in primary immunodeficiency, systematic review to 2016 | all ages (mostly children with primary immunodeficiency) immune status: primary immunodeficiency country: multiple (mostly higher-income, high-coverage countries) setting: case reports and series period: over 5 decades to 2016 n: 107 iVDPV cases All ages | oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) platform: live attenuated oral doses: any vs none (proportion within iVDPV cases) | 69.81 proportion of iVDPV cases with VAPP (%) | systematic review | Shaghaghi et al. 2018 Vaccinequote74 (69.81%) patients developed VAPP. abstract Denominator is identified iVDPV cases, a highly selected group; it is not a risk per immunodeficient vaccinee. Combined immunodeficiency had lower VAPP rates than humoral immunodeficiency. |
| Severe adverse events after nOPV2 severity: severe adverse event case definition: Severe adverse events in RCTs and a cohort of under-immunised children | children under 18 years country: Bangladesh, The Gambia, Dominican Republic setting: LMIC trials Infant <1y1-4y5-11y12-17y | novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 (nOPV2) platform: live attenuated oral, genetically stabilised doses: 1-2 vs none (single-arm Bayesian pooling) | 0.01 (0.00–0.02) pooled proportion with severe adverse events | meta-analysis 5 studies (4 RCTs, 1 cohort), 10,421 children | Boene et al. 2026 BMC Infect DisquoteSevere adverse events after nOPV2 vaccination yielded a pooled proportion of 0.01 (95% CI: 0.00-0.02), mild events occurred in 7.8%, and viral shedding was 64.7%. abstract, RESULTS Single-arm pooled proportion, not a comparison with placebo; mild events 7.8%, viral shedding 64.7%. |
| Local reactions after enhanced-potency IPV severity: mild and transient case definition: Induration, pain, erythema within 48 hours in pre-licensure trials | pre-licensure trial participants (infants and children) country: United States setting: pre-licensure trials Infant <1y1-4y5-11y | enhanced-potency inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) platform: inactivated, intramuscular doses: per dose vs none (single-arm pre-licensure reporting) | 18 proportion with induration (%) | expert body | cdc.govquoteParticipants reported induration (18%), pain (13%), and erythema (3.2%) within 48 hours after vaccination. Vaccine Safety Pain 13%, erythema 3.2%. CDC: IPV does not contain live virus, so it cannot cause VAPP. |
| Solicited adverse events after nOPV2 in newborns severity: mild or moderate case definition: Solicited adverse events recorded at daily home visits for 7 days after each dose | newborns (0-3 days and 4 weeks) country: Bangladesh setting: LMIC, phase 2 RCT period: 2020-2021 n: 220 nOPV2 and 110 placebo NeonateInfant <1y | novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 (nOPV2) platform: live attenuated oral, genetically stabilised doses: 2 vs placebo (71%) | 70 proportion with solicited adverse events (%) | RCT | Zaman et al. 2023 LancetquoteFINDINGS: Between Sept 21, 2020, and Aug 16, 2021, we screened 334 newborn infants, of whom three (<1%) were found to be ineligible and one (<1%) was withdrawn by the parents; the remaining 330 (99%) infants were assigned to receive nOPV2 (n=220 [67%]) or placebo (n=110 [33%]). nOPV2 was well tolerated; 154 (70%) of 220 newborn infants in the nOPV2 group and 78 (71%) of 110 in the placebo group had solicited adverse events, which were all mild or moderate in severity. abstract, FINDINGS No difference from placebo; all events mild or moderate. Severe unsolicited events 5% in each group, judged unrelated. |
| Vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis (VAPP) severity: paralysis case definition: Paralytic polio caused by Sabin vaccine strains in recipients or contacts | all ages (recipients and contacts) country: United States setting: national surveillance period: OPV era to 1999 All ages | trivalent OPV (tOPV) platform: live attenuated oral doses: any vs doses administered (no unvaccinated comparator; VAPP cannot occur without OPV) | 2 to 3 million tOPV doses administered per VAPP case (one case per N doses) | surveillance | cdc.govquoteHowever, one case of VAPP occurred for every 2 to 3 million doses of tOPV vaccine administered. Secular Trends / Vaccine Safety This is why the US moved to an IPV-only schedule: once wild polio was gone, VAPP was the only remaining paralytic polio (burden record). IPV cannot cause VAPP. |
| Vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis (VAPP), first dose vs later doses severity: paralysis case definition: VAPP in recipients | infants and children country: United States setting: national surveillance period: OPV era Infant <1y1-4y5-11y | oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) platform: live attenuated oral doses: 1 vs subsequent vs subsequent OPV doses | 7 to 21 relative risk, first dose vs any other dose | surveillance | cdc.govquoteThe risk of VAPP is 7 to 21 times higher for the first dose than for any other dose in the series. Vaccine Safety The first-dose concentration of risk is the rationale for sequential IPV-then-OPV schedules (Cochrane record). |
| Vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis (VAPP) in immunodeficiency severity: paralysis case definition: VAPP in persons with B-lymphocyte disorders (agammaglobulinaemia, hypogammaglobulinaemia) | all ages immune status: B-lymphocyte immunodeficiency country: United States setting: national surveillance period: OPV era All ages | oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) platform: live attenuated oral doses: any vs immunocompetent OPV recipients | 7,000 relative risk vs immunocompetent recipients | surveillance | cdc.govquoteVAPP is more likely to occur in persons age 18 years or older than in children, and it is almost 7,000 times higher for persons with certain types of immunodeficiencies, particularly B-lymphocyte disorders (e.g., agammaglobulinemia and hypogammaglobulinemia), which reduce the synthesis of immune globulins. Vaccine Safety OPV is contraindicated in immunodeficiency; such patients can also become chronic excretors of immunodeficiency-associated VDPV (iVDPV record). |
| Vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis (VAPP) severity: paralysis case definition: VAPP identified from AFP surveillance | all ages (recipients and contacts) country: Latin America setting: AFP surveillance during mass campaigns plus routine delivery period: 1989-1991 n: 6043 AFP cases analysed All ages | oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) platform: live attenuated oral doses: any (routine plus campaign) vs doses administered; compared in the same sentence with England and Wales (1 per 1.4 million doses, 1985-91) and the USA (1 per 2.5 million net doses, 1980-89) | 1.5-2.2 million OPV doses administered per VAPP case (one case per N doses) | surveillance | Andrus et al. 1995 Bull World Health OrganquoteThe overall risk was estimated to be one case per 1.5-2.2 million doses of OPV administered, compared with one case per 1.4 million doses administered in England and Wales (1985-91) and with one case per 2.5 million net doses distributed in the USA (1980-89). abstract Mass campaigns did not appear to alter VAPP risk per dose. |
| Recipient vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis (VAPP) severity: paralysis case definition: AFP with residual paralysis at 60 days, vaccine-strain poliovirus isolated, onset 4-40 days after OPV | newborn cohorts (recipients) country: Latin America and the Caribbean setting: AFP surveillance, post-elimination era period: 1992-2011 n: 40,926 AFP cases reviewed; 72 recipient VAPP cases Infant <1y1-4y | oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) platform: live attenuated oral doses: any vs newborn cohorts in OPV-using countries | 1 per 3.15 million (2.56–4.10) recipient VAPP cases per million newborns | surveillance | Landaverde et al. 2014 J Infect DisquoteThe estimated risk of recipient VAPP was 1 case per 3.15 million newborns (95% confidence interval [CI], 1 case per 2.56-4.10 million newborns), and the estimated overall risk was 1 case per 1.19 million newborns (95% CI, 1 case per 1.04-1.39 million newborns). abstract CI bounds are the 95% CI on the denominator (1 per 2.56-4.10 million). Overall risk including non-recipient cases: 1 per 1.19 million newborns (1.04-1.39). Lower than earlier estimates. |
| Vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis (VAPP) severity: paralysis case definition: AFP with onset 1999, residual weakness at 60 days and vaccine-related poliovirus isolated | children under 15 (AFP surveillance) country: India setting: national AFP surveillance with intensive campaign use period: 1999 n: 181 AFP cases meeting the definition Infant <1y1-4y5-11y12-17y | oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) platform: live attenuated oral doses: any vs doses administered | 1 per 4.1 to 4.6 million VAPP cases per OPV doses administered | surveillance | Kohler et al. 2002 Bull World Health OrganquoteThe following estimates of VAPP risk were made: overall risk, 1 case per 4.1 to 4.6 million OPV doses administered; recipient risk,1 case per 12.2 million; first-dose recipient risk, 1 case per 2.8 million; and subsequent-dose recipient risk, 1 case per 13.9 million. abstract, FINDINGS Same sentence: recipient risk 1 per 12.2 million doses, first-dose recipient risk 1 per 2.8 million, subsequent-dose risk 1 per 13.9 million. Per-dose risk falls in settings with many campaign doses because later doses carry little risk. |
Post-polio syndrome Poliovirus (late sequela of paralytic poliomyelitis)
Post-acute and long-term sequelae
What can follow the acute illness: chronic disease, disability, cancers, congenital syndromes, post-infectious conditions.
| Outcome (O) | Population (P) | Comparator | Estimate | Design (S) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Post-polio syndrome (new muscle pain, new weakness or paralysis) severity: chronic disability case definition: New muscle pain and exacerbation of weakness or new weakness 15 to 40 years after childhood paralytic polio | persons who had paralytic polio in childhood, assessed in adulthood prior infection: paralytic poliomyelitis in childhood vaccination status: not reported country: United States setting: expert summary period: not stated 18-49y50-64y65+ | vs none (proportion among survivors; no uninfected comparison group) | 25 to 40 proportion of paralytic polio survivors (%) per survivor of childhood paralytic polio follow-up: 15 to 40 years after acute illness | expert body | cdc.govquoteAfter an interval of 15 to 40 years, 25% to 40% of persons who contracted paralytic poliomyelitis in childhood experience new muscle pain and exacerbation of existing weakness or develop new weakness or paralysis. Clinical Features Range quoted by CDC; cohort estimates below vary widely depending on criteria and population. No controlled comparison with an uninfected group, so attribution rests on the clinical definition. |
| Post-polio syndrome severity: chronic neuromuscular symptoms case definition: Validated questionnaire (muscle weakness, pain, unaccustomed fatigue) in a population-based cohort of former paralytic polio patients | adults surveyed decades after acute polio prior infection: paralytic poliomyelitis vaccination status: not reported country: United States (Allegheny County, Pennsylvania) setting: community, population-based cohort period: surveyed around 1990 18-49y50-64y65+ | vs none (prevalence within survivors; no uninfected controls) | 28.5 (24.4–32.6) prevalence among paralytic cases (%) per paralytic polio survivor follow-up: 30-40 years after acute illness | cohort | Ramlow et al. 1992 Am J EpidemiolquoteThe prevalence of the post-polio syndrome was 28.5% of all paralytic cases (95% confidence interval 24.4-32.6). abstract Risk higher with substantial permanent impairment and in females; incidence peaked three decades after the acute illness (next record). Self-report questionnaire validated by clinical examination in a subset of the cohort. |
| Timing of post-polio syndrome onset severity: chronic neuromuscular symptoms case definition: Interval from acute poliomyelitis to onset of post-polio syndrome | adults surveyed decades after acute polio prior infection: paralytic poliomyelitis vaccination status: not reported country: United States (Allegheny County, Pennsylvania) setting: community, population-based cohort period: surveyed around 1990 18-49y50-64y65+ | vs none | 30-34 interval after acute illness at which incidence peaks (years) per paralytic polio survivor | cohort | Ramlow et al. 1992 Am J EpidemiolquoteThe strongest determinant of post-polio syndrome onset was the length of the interval following the acute illness, with incidence peaking at 30-34 years. abstract |
| Post-polio syndrome severity: chronic neuromuscular symptoms case definition: Specified diagnostic criteria, structured questionnaire plus neurologic examination | adults admitted for polio as children in 1945-1960 prior infection: paediatric hospital admission for poliomyelitis vaccination status: not reported country: Italy (Palermo) setting: hospital-ascertained cohort period: polio 1945-1960, surveyed about 2005 18-49y50-64y65+ | vs none (prevalence within survivors) | 31.0 prevalence among polio survivors (%) per polio survivor | cohort | Ragonese et al. 2005 J Neurol SciquoteRESULTS: Forty-eight participants met the adopted diagnostic criteria for PPS, giving a prevalence of 31.0%. abstract, RESULTS Higher in women; inversely associated with polio onset after the first year of life and with higher education; strongly associated with comorbid disease, a confounding route for symptom attribution. |
| Post-polio syndrome severity: chronic neuromuscular symptoms case definition: Symptom-based specified diagnostic criteria by telephone interview | mean 51.2 years prior infection: poliomyelitis vaccination status: not reported country: Republic of Korea setting: hospital and centre records, telephone survey period: surveyed about 2013 n: 313 polio survivors 18-49y50-64y65+ | vs none (prevalence within survivors) | 61.6 prevalence among polio survivors (%) per polio survivor follow-up: mean 38.5 years from acute polio to PPS | cohort | Bang et al. 2014 Ann Rehabil MedquoteA total of 188 out of 313 polio survivors met the adopted criteria for PPS based on the symptoms, yielding a prevalence of 61.6%. abstract, RESULTS Symptom-only criteria by telephone and recruitment from medical records (selecting people with ongoing care) both push the proportion upward relative to population-based cohorts. |
| Post-polio syndrome severity: chronic neuromuscular symptoms case definition: Halstead's criteria, mailed self-administered questionnaire | polio survivors holding disability certificates prior infection: poliomyelitis vaccination status: not reported country: Japan (Kitakyushu) setting: community, disability register period: surveyed about 2003 n: 241 polio survivors 18-49y50-64y65+ | vs none | 18.0 prevalence per 100,000 general population per 100,000 general population | cohort | Takemura et al. 2004 J Rehabil MedquoteAccording to Halstead's criteria, 180 polio survivors suffered from post-polio syndrome, and the prevalence of post-polio syndrome in Kitakyushu was 18.0 per population of 100,000. abstract, RESULTS Population denominator, not survivor denominator: three-quarters of identified survivors met criteria. Register-based ascertainment captures only certificated disability. |
| Late-onset polio sequelae (new neuromuscular symptoms, disability, handicap) severity: increased disability and handicap case definition: Self-constructed questionnaire comparing current state with the stable period after recovery | mean 44 years (range 39 to 77) prior infection: paralytic poliomyelitis in the 1956 epidemic vaccination status: not reported country: Netherlands setting: community, population-based from epidemic notifications period: polio 1956, surveyed about 1997 n: 233 survivors 18-49y50-64y65+ | vs none (change within survivors; no uninfected controls) | 60 proportion of survivors with late-onset sequelae (%) per paralytic polio survivor follow-up: about 40 years | cohort | Ivanyi et al. 1999 Arch Phys Med RehabilquoteCONCLUSION: Nearly 60% of a sample of Dutch survivors of the 1956 polio outbreak experience late onset polio sequelae, resulting in increased severity of disabilities and handicaps. abstract, CONCLUSION Self-report without a control group, so age-related decline cannot be separated from polio-specific sequelae. More than half reported increased muscle weakness and increased disability. |
| New neuromuscular symptoms severe enough to change lifestyle or activity severity: functionally limiting new symptoms case definition: Detailed clinical, functional and electrophysiologic evaluation of a sample of survivors; new symptoms of muscle pain, fatigue and weakness leading to lifestyle change | survivors of paralytic polio between 1935 and 1955 prior infection: paralytic poliomyelitis vaccination status: not reported country: United States (Olmsted County, Minnesota) setting: community, population-based cohort period: polio 1935-1955, evaluated about 1990 n: 50 of 247 survivors 18-49y50-64y65+ | vs none | 18 proportion of evaluated survivors whose new symptoms changed lifestyle or activity (%) per evaluated survivor | cohort | Windebank et al. 1991 NeurologyquoteThis led to changes in lifestyle or activity in only 18%. abstract The abstract reports that sixty-four percent (written in words, so not compilable as a value) complained of new symptoms; electrophysiology did not distinguish those with and without complaints. Small evaluated sample. |
| Late onset neuromuscular symptoms following poliomyelitis (LSP) severity: chronic neuromuscular symptoms with worse perceived health case definition: New muscle weakness plus new neuromuscular symptoms by mailed questionnaire | adult survivors of the 1956 epidemic prior infection: poliomyelitis in the 1956 epidemic vaccination status: not reported country: Netherlands setting: community, population-based from epidemic notifications period: polio 1956, surveyed about 2000 n: 260 respondents 18-49y50-64y65+ | vs respondents without LSP (for perceived health); no uninfected controls for the proportion | 45.5 proportion of respondents with LSP (%) per respondent | cohort | Nollet et al. 2002 J Neurol Neurosurg PsychiatryquoteThe perceived health of respondents with LSP (45.5%) was significantly worse than that of respondents without LSP for all the health profile categories. abstract, RESULTS Includes survivors who had clinically recovered as well as those with residual paresis. |
| Post-polio sequelae severity: chronic neuromuscular disease case definition: Patients identified from multiple health data sources in a county | all ages in the county population prior infection: poliomyelitis vaccination status: not reported country: Sweden (Orebro county) setting: community, county register period: prevalence day 1 January 1988 n: 270,000 population All ages | vs none | 92 prevalence per 100,000 general population per 100,000 general population | surveillance | Ahlström et al. 1993 NeuroepidemiologyquoteThe rate per 100,000 population was 92 for the postpolio sequelae (PPS) and 84 for the other neuromuscular diseases (motor neuron disease 9, hereditary neuropathies 9, myoneural disorders 16, myotonic disorders 19, muscular dystrophies 20 and myositis 11). abstract An expanded survey of all medical records in one district gave roughly double this figure, so register ascertainment roughly halves the true prevalence. Most identified patients reported late-onset symptoms. |
Gaps
- Salk 1954 field trial efficacy figures: the Francis reports (PMIDs 14376387, 14392076, 14361811) have no abstracts in PubMed; PMC and Europe PMC full-text/PDF for the related Francis 1955 Bull NY Acad Med paper (PMC1804435) were blocked (reCAPTCHA, HTTP 403). No Salk-trial efficacy number is compiled; the IPV clinical-efficacy records are from Senegal 1986-87 and Nigeria 2017-22 instead.
- WHO polio position paper (June 2022, WER 97:277-300): the IRIS and apps.who.int PDF links return a DSpace JavaScript page (6 characters cached), and the who.int landing page carries no content sentences. Position-paper figures (serotype-specific paralysis ratios, VAPP rates, OPV/IPV efficacy summaries) could not be quoted.
- No OPV clinical efficacy against paralysis from a high-income country was found; the nearest are Oman 1988-89 (91%) and the Albania 1996 outbreak description. No IPV-only country case-control estimate against paralysis exists in what was found (Netherlands 1992-93 and Finland 1984-85 outbreaks report counts, not VE).
- No record on waning of IPV or OPV protection against paralysis over decades: CDC states IPV immunity is probably lifelong but not known with certainty; the only US adult data compiled are seroprevalence (polio-eff-059).
- No pregnancy or infants-of-vaccinated-mothers efficacy record; maternal antibody appears only as a baseline in the nOPV2 newborn trial.
- Post-polio syndrome: no systematic review or meta-analysis of prevalence was found in PubMed or Europe PMC; the cohort estimates compiled (18 to 62%) use different criteria. No controlled comparison with an uninfected population exists for any PPS estimate, so all PPS records have comparator=none. The Swedish register study of PPS in immigrants (PMID 37055461) was read but not compiled because its comparator (Swedish-born residents) is not a disease-exposure comparison.
- Pakistan's 2026 year-to-date WPV1 count on the GPEI page is written as the word six, and the WHO fact sheet's 5-10% case fatality sentence appears twice verbatim, so neither can be compiled under the number gate and uniqueness rule.
- No current (2024-2026) global annual WPV1 or cVDPV totals from a peer-reviewed MMWR were found; the latest compiled MMWR covers 2022-2023. The 2026 figures come from the GPEI weekly page as country-level counts.
- Pre-vaccine US incidence per 100,000 population appears in Nathanson and Kew only as a figure legend without the numbers in text; only the 1952 case count (21,000) is compiled.
- No seroconversion or efficacy record for adults receiving IPV boosters, for travellers, or for HIV-infected children.
Flags for review
- polio-bur-020 to polio-bur-022 (infections per paralytic case by serotype) are a derived table: Nathanson & Kew apportion an assumed overall 1:150 ratio (median of 15 studies) using the serotype distribution of US pre-vaccine paralytic cases from unpublished typing data. They are the only serotype-specific ratios compiled and should be presented as approximate.
- polio-eff-033: nOPV2 per-dose effectiveness against cVDPV2 paralysis is negative with community controls (-23%, -45 to -5) and near zero for mOPV2, while the same study gives IPV 89%. The authors attribute this to campaign-dose recall/reporting and campaign targeting of high-risk areas, and the model-based campaign impact (polio-eff-034) is large. A reviewer should decide how to present the individual-level null/negative OPV2 estimates next to the population-level impact.
- Polio VE estimates depend heavily on the control group: Somalia 2013 gives 70% with non-polio AFP controls vs 95% with neighbourhood controls (polio-eff-021 vs polio-eff-024); Nigeria 2017-22 gives IPV 43% with test-negative vs 89% with community controls (polio-eff-031 vs polio-eff-032). These are not conflicting studies but the same data under different designs.
- Per-dose OPV efficacies (11-34% in Uttar Pradesh, Nigeria, Pakistan/Afghanistan) and full-series efficacies (62-91% in India, Gambia, Oman, Somalia) are different measures and must not be compared directly; the per-dose figures come from settings where children receive many campaign doses.
- The Pink Book cache (cdc-gov-4fb822655a) and the WHO fact sheet cache (who-int-db5a1e141a) contain encoding artefacts where en dashes and degree signs were (U+FFFD) in year ranges such as 1969-1979; the quotes copied for polio-bur-008 to polio-bur-010 carry that character. Numbers are unaffected. Re-snapshotting with PYTHONUTF8=1 would fix the text but would create new web_ids.
- GPEI weekly-page counts (polio-bur-042 to polio-bur-047) are year-to-date figures as of 14 October 2026 and the cached sentences do not name the country; the country is taken from the heading each sentence sits under. They will be stale within weeks and should be refreshed before publication.
- Case fatality denominators differ across records: Pink Book and Sweden figures are per paralytic case; Albania 1996 is per paralytic case in an adult-heavy outbreak; the India hospital series is per admitted child. None should be multiplied by the paralysis-to-infection ratio without saying so.
- Post-polio syndrome prevalence runs from 18 per 100,000 population (Japan register) and 28.5% of paralytic cases (Pennsylvania, population-based) to 61.6% (Korea, symptom criteria by telephone, clinic-recruited). The differences are mostly criteria and ascertainment, not biology; CDC's 25-40% sits inside the range.
- VAPP records are filed under safety, as instructed, but polio-bur-014 (95% of US paralytic polio cases 1980-1999 were VAPP) sits in burden because it describes the composition of the remaining disease burden; a reviewer may prefer it under safety.
Search log (30 searches)
inactivated poliovirus vaccine Salk field trial 1954 efficacy· PubMed → Found 10807305 (history of the trial, no efficacy figure) and 23018439; the Francis evaluation reports (14376387, 14392076, 14361811) have no abstracts.oral poliovirus vaccine efficacy serotype case-control India Nigeria· PubMed → No results (query too long); re-run as shorter queries below.post-polio syndrome prevalence survivors systematic review· PubMed → Only treatment Cochrane reviews and a sleep-disorder review; no prevalence meta-analysis.paralytic poliomyelitis case fatality bulbar ratio infection paralysis serotype· PubMed → No results; replaced by Pink Book chapter and Nathanson & Kew full text.oral poliovirus vaccine effectiveness case-control serotype· PubMed → Found 24634499 (IPV 1-2 dose meta-analysis), 18923171 (Nigeria), 25104665 (Nigeria 2001-12), 22766207 (Pakistan/Afghanistan); all compiled.post-polio syndrome prevalence· PubMed → Found 1442743, 15074431, 16014307, 25379493, 37055461 and reviews; cohort studies compiled as polio-pa-002 to polio-pa-006.paralytic poliomyelitis case fatality· PubMed → Found 25316846 (outbreak review with adult CFRs); compiled as polio-bur-028, polio-bur-029.novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 nOPV2 effectiveness· PubMed → Found 37357964, 42185803, 38246190, 36495882, 38402887; compiled.vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis risk per doses· PubMed → Found 25316859, 7704923, 11984607, 24520126, 8180638; compiled 25316859, 7704923, 11984607, 24520126.inactivated poliovirus vaccine seroconversion fractional dose randomized· PubMed → Found 23363495, 31104832, 33939958, 31858595, 33284114 and others; compiled the first four.Francis field trial poliomyelitis vaccine evaluation 1955· PubMed → Only the abstract-less Francis reports.poliovirus infection paralysis ratio serotype· PubMed → Found 31801180 (Cochrane sequential IPV-OPV), 22448007, 29478755; serotype ratios taken from Nathanson & Kew Table 1 instead.trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine efficacy case-control three doses· PubMed → Found 8324848 (Madras), 9203725 and 1550091 (Gambia); compiled.inactivated poliovirus vaccine effectiveness paralytic case-control· PubMed → Only a Belarus AFP surveillance paper; IPV field efficacy taken from 2895828 (Senegal) found via cache.post-polio syndrome prevalence population-based· PubMed → Found 10378496 (Netherlands 1956 cohort), 21088431; compiled 10378496.progress toward poliomyelitis eradication worldwide 2024· PubMed → Found 38753550 (Jan 2022-Dec 2023) and 38573841; 38753550 full text cached via Europe PMC and compiled.poliomyelitis United States 2022 Rockland unvaccinated paralytic case· PubMed → Found 35980868 and related MMWRs; read, not compiled (single case, no rate).poliomyelitis immunodeficiency paralysis risk vaccine-derived· PubMed → Found 39770387, 32673297, 31625840, 20587188; iVDPV figures compiled from 29478755.epidemiology of poliomyelitis deconstructed emergence eradication· PubMed → Found 20978089 (Nathanson & Kew 2010); open-access full text cached from Europe PMC (ebi-ac-uk-f85c749971) and compiled for serotype ratios and Swedish CFR.Progress Toward Poliomyelitis Eradication Worldwide January 2023 December 2024· PubMed → Returned only the 2022-2023 report; no 2024 report found.poliomyelitis mortality trends United States 1900-1950 epidemics age· PubMed → No results.Francis T 1955 poliomyelitis (Europe PMC REST)· Europe PMC → Found PMC1804435 (Bull N Y Acad Med) and PMID 14361811; full text not retrievable (reCAPTCHA / 403).post-polio syndrome prevalence cohort/population (Europe PMC, cited-desc)· Europe PMC → Mostly off-topic highly cited papers; title-restricted query found 2011246 (Olmsted), 12438472 (Netherlands), 8309501 (Sweden), compiled.poliomyelitis case fatality paralytic bulbar (Europe PMC)· Europe PMC → Mostly off-topic; nothing new beyond Pink Book and Nathanson.oral poliovirus vaccine efficacy case-control paralytic (Europe PMC)· Europe PMC → Found 1679866 (Oman), 25316835 (Somalia), 2262269 (North Arcot), 12714548 (India type 3), 35784443, 38237616; compiled.poliomyelitis outbreak Netherlands/Israel/Finland/Tajikistan/Albania (Europe PMC)· Europe PMC → Found 7915354, 2872526, 1971043, 9502465, 24576474; compiled 7915354, 2872526, 9502465.polio vaccine effectiveness case-control Pakistan/Afghanistan/Congo/Somalia 2015-2026 (Europe PMC)· Europe PMC → No additional VE case-control study beyond 38246190 and 25316835.VAPP risk incidence (Europe PMC, cited-desc)· Europe PMC → Found 181984, 6994207, 15106301, 20587188; read, not compiled (figures written in words or no denominators).WHO polio position paper June 2022 PDF (iris.who.int, apps.who.int, who.int landing page)· websource → All three attempts failed to yield text (DSpace JS page; landing page without content).CDC Pink Book chapter 18 poliomyelitis; WHO poliomyelitis fact sheet; GPEI Polio This Week (14 October 2026)· websource (cached) → All three cached and compiled.