Data 21 October 2026 Compiled by an agent pipeline, verified quote-by-quote Methods · Changelog · Corrections

Open Source Medicine Foundation

Polio vaccines (IPV, OPV)

Compiled October 2026

Disease risks, post-acute sequelae and vaccine efficacy, compiled 21 October 2026. For vaccine adverse-event data see the Vaccine Data Navigator page.

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disease risks
10
post-acute and long-term sequelae
59
vaccine efficacy and effectiveness
12
vaccine safety and adverse events
58
sources

Poliomyelitis Poliovirus (types 1, 2 and 3; wild and vaccine-derived)

Disease risks

Acute risks of the infection itself: complications, hospitalisation, ICU, death.

Outcome (O)Population (P)ComparatorEstimateDesign (S)Source
Paralytic cases per 100 infections, all serotypes
severity: paralysis
case definition: Median of 15 studies of the paralytic case:infection ratio
all ages
vaccination status: unvaccinated
country: multiple
setting: review of prospective and serological studies
period: pre-vaccine era
All ages
0.667
paralytic cases per 100 infections
per 100 infections
systematic reviewebi.ac.uk
quote
The ratio of 0.667 paralytic cases per 100 infections is the median of values from the 15 studies cited in Table 9 ( 4 ).
Table 1 footnote
Equivalent to the overall ratio used in the serotype table; the WHO fact sheet's one-in-two-hundred figure is of the same order.
Death from paralytic poliomyelitis in outbreaks affecting adolescents and adults
severity: death
case definition: Wild poliovirus outbreak cases, literature review 1996-2012
adolescents and adults
vaccination status: mixed
country: multiple (Albania 1994 to Republic of Congo 2010)
setting: outbreak
period: 1996-2012
12-17y18-49y50-64y
12 to 41
CFR (%) range across outbreaks
per paralytic case
systematic reviewMach et al. 2014 J Infect Dis
quote
The outbreaks among adolescents and adults were associated with higher case-fatality ratios, ranging from 12% in Albania in 1994 to 41% in the Republic of Congo in 2010.
abstract, RESULTS
Range, not a pooled estimate. Adult-dominated outbreaks in populations with immunity gaps carry much higher case fatality than childhood endemic disease.
Paralytic cases from importation outbreaks
severity: paralysis
case definition: Wild poliovirus outbreak cases in previously polio-free areas
all ages (most outbreaks concentrated in under-5s)
vaccination status: mixed
country: multiple (39 countries)
setting: outbreak
period: 1996-2012
All ages
4571
paralytic cases (count) across 22 outbreaks
per 22 outbreaks, 1996-2012
systematic reviewMach et al. 2014 J Infect Dis
quote
These outbreaks caused 4571 cases, representing 21% of all cases reported during this period.
abstract, RESULTS
Represented 21% of all cases reported globally in the period.
Asymptomatic poliovirus infection
severity: asymptomatic
case definition: Poliovirus infection in children as described by CDC
children
vaccination status: not reported
country: United States
setting: expert summary of natural history
period: pre-vaccine era natural history
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y12-17y
70
proportion of infections (%)
per poliovirus infection
expert bodycdc.gov
quote
Approximately 70% of all polio infections in children are asymptomatic.
Clinical Features
Denominator is all infections, not cases. The remainder splits into minor illness, aseptic meningitis and paralysis (next records).
Minor nonspecific illness without CNS invasion
severity: mild
case definition: Minor illness without clinical or laboratory evidence of central nervous system invasion
children
vaccination status: not reported
country: United States
setting: expert summary of natural history
period: pre-vaccine era natural history
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y12-17y
24
proportion of infections (%)
per poliovirus infection
expert bodycdc.gov
quote
Approximately 24% of polio infections in children consist of a minor, nonspecific illness without clinical or laboratory evidence of central nervous system invasion.
Clinical Features
Nonparalytic aseptic meningitis
severity: moderate
case definition: Aseptic meningitis without paralysis
children
vaccination status: not reported
country: United States
setting: expert summary of natural history
period: pre-vaccine era natural history
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y12-17y
1 to 5
proportion of infections (%)
per poliovirus infection
expert bodycdc.gov
quote
Nonparalytic aseptic meningitis occurs in 1% to 5% of polio infections in children.
Clinical Features
Flaccid paralysis
severity: paralysis
case definition: Paralytic poliomyelitis
children
vaccination status: not reported
country: United States
setting: expert summary of natural history
period: pre-vaccine era natural history
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y12-17y
<1
proportion of infections (%)
per poliovirus infection
expert bodycdc.gov
quote
Less than 1% of all polio infections in children result in flaccid paralysis.
Clinical Features
Serotype-specific paralysis-to-infection ratios are in the Nathanson and Kew records. This is a ceiling, not a point estimate.
Death from paralytic poliomyelitis
severity: death
case definition: Paralytic polio
children
vaccination status: not reported
country: United States
setting: expert summary
period: pre-vaccine and early vaccine era
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y
2 to 5
CFR (%)
per paralytic case
expert bodycdc.gov
quote
The case fatality ratio for paralytic polio is generally 2% to 5% among children and up to 15% to 30% among adolescents and adults.
Clinical Features
Denominator is paralytic cases, not infections. Do not multiply by the paralysis-to-infection ratio to get a per-infection death risk without stating the assumptions.
Death from paralytic poliomyelitis
severity: death
case definition: Paralytic polio
adolescents and adults
vaccination status: not reported
country: United States
setting: expert summary
period: pre-vaccine and early vaccine era
12-17y18-49y50-64y65+
15 to 30
CFR (%)
per paralytic case
expert bodycdc.gov
quote
The case fatality ratio for paralytic polio is generally 2% to 5% among children and up to 15% to 30% among adolescents and adults.
Clinical Features
Same sentence as the childhood case-fatality record; the age gradient in case fatality is the key heterogeneity for polio.
Death from bulbar poliomyelitis
severity: death
case definition: Paralytic polio with bulbar involvement
all ages (not stratified)
vaccination status: not reported
country: United States
setting: expert summary
period: pre-vaccine and early vaccine era
All ages
25 to 75
CFR (%)
per paralytic case with bulbar involvement
expert bodycdc.gov
quote
It increases to 25% to 75% with bulbar involvement.
Clinical Features
Paralytic polio cases worldwide at launch of eradication
severity: paralysis
case definition: Estimated paralytic cases
all ages
vaccination status: mixed
country: multiple (more than 125 countries)
setting: global estimate
period: 1988
All ages
350,000
estimated paralytic cases per year (count)
per year, global
expert bodycdc.gov
quote
In 1988, polio paralyzed an estimated 350,000 individuals per year in more than 125 countries.
Eradication
Household transmission of poliovirus
severity: infection
case definition: Seroconversion among susceptible household contacts
susceptible household contacts of infected children
vaccination status: unvaccinated
country: United States
setting: household
period: pre-vaccine era natural history
All ages
100
secondary infection rate among susceptible household contacts (%)
per susceptible household contact
expert bodycdc.gov
quote
Communicability Poliovirus is highly infectious, with seroconversion rates among susceptible household contacts of children nearly 100%, and greater than 90% among susceptible household contacts of adults.
Communicability
The sentence says nearly 100% for contacts of children and greater than 90% for contacts of adults.
Irreversible paralysis after poliovirus infection
severity: paralysis
case definition: Poliovirus infection leading to irreversible paralysis
all ages (mainly children under 5)
vaccination status: not reported
country: global
setting: WHO fact sheet
period: not stated
All ages
200
infections per case of irreversible paralysis (WHO states it as one in 200)
per poliovirus infection
expert bodywho.int
quote
One in 200 infections leads to irreversible paralysis (usually in the legs).
Key facts / Overview
WHO's headline ratio. It is an all-serotype average dominated by type 1; serotype-specific ratios differ roughly ten-fold (Nathanson and Kew records).
Paralytic poliomyelitis cases worldwide, pre-vaccine vs 2000
severity: paralysis
case definition: Estimated annual paralytic cases
all ages
vaccination status: unvaccinated
country: global
setting: global estimate
period: pre-vaccine era vs 2000
All ages
600,000
estimated paralytic cases per year (count)
per year, global
expert bodyebi.ac.uk
quote
Global expansion of polio immunization resulted in a reduction of paralytic disease from an estimated annual prevaccine level of at least 600,000 cases to fewer than 1,000 cases in 2000.
Abstract
Lower bound ("at least"). The same sentence gives fewer than 1,000 cases in 2000.
Provocation paralysis: injection in the 30 days before onset as a risk factor for paralytic polio
severity: paralysis
strain: wild poliovirus type 3
case definition: Virologically confirmed type 3 poliomyelitis vs matched controls
mean 30.6 months
vaccination status: mixed
country: India
setting: outbreak
period: 1999-2000
n: 48 cases and 175 controls
Infant <1y1-4y
3.9 (1.8–12.5)
adjusted OR for paralytic polio, any injection in prior 30 days
per case vs matched control
case-controlKohler et al. 2003 Int J Epidemiol
quote
The only significant difference between the groups was the proportion that received any injection in the last 30 days prior to paralysis onset or the corresponding reference date for controls (35.4% versus 12.3%, adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 3.9, 95% CI: 1.8-12.5).
abstract, RESULTS
Cases and controls had similar OPV histories (similar median dose counts), so this outbreak did not point to vaccine failure as the main driver.
Death from paralytic poliomyelitis, Albania 1996 outbreak
severity: death
strain: wild poliovirus type 1
case definition: Paralytic cases, wild poliovirus type 1
all ages, highest attack rate in adults aged 19-25 years
vaccination status: mixed
country: Albania
setting: outbreak
period: 1996
n: 138 paralytic cases
All ages
12
CFR (%)
per paralytic case
outbreak investigationPrevots et al. 1998 Clin Infect Dis
quote
A total of 138 paralytic cases occurred, of which 16 (12%) were fatal.
abstract
Paralytic poliomyelitis attack rate in young adults
severity: paralysis
strain: wild poliovirus type 1
case definition: Paralytic cases, wild poliovirus type 1
adults aged 19-25 years
vaccination status: partially vaccinated
country: Albania
setting: outbreak
period: 1996
18-49y
10
attack rate per 100,000 population
per 100,000 population
outbreak investigationPrevots et al. 1998 Clin Infect Dis
quote
An attack rate of 10 per 100,000 population was observed among adults aged 19-25 years who were born during a time of declining wild poliovirus circulation and had been vaccinated with two doses of monovalent oral poliovirus vaccines (OPVs) that may have been exposed to ambient temperatures for prolonged periods.
abstract
This cohort had received two doses of monovalent OPV that may have been heat-exposed; the source treats low vaccine potency as a likely contributor.
Death and paralysis in an outbreak among unvaccinated people
severity: death
strain: wild poliovirus type 3
case definition: Clinical poliomyelitis cases, type 3 poliovirus
10 days to 61 years (median 18 years)
vaccination status: unvaccinated
country: Netherlands
setting: outbreak in a religious community refusing vaccination
period: 1992-1993
n: 71 patients
All ages
2
deaths (count) among 71 cases
per 71 clinical cases
outbreak investigationOostvogel et al. 1994 Lancet
quote
The outbreak was due to poliovirus type 3 and involved 71 patients, of whom 2 died and 59 had paralysis.
abstract
59 of the 71 had paralysis. The surrounding vaccinated population was not affected, which the authors read as evidence of good population protection in a largely IPV-vaccinated country.
Paralytic cases in an outbreak in an IPV-vaccinated population
severity: paralysis
strain: poliovirus type 3 (antigenically altered)
case definition: Paralytic poliomyelitis, antigenically altered type 3 poliovirus
all ages
vaccination status: mixed
country: Finland
setting: outbreak, nationally IPV-vaccinated population
period: 1984-1985
All ages
9
paralytic cases (count)
per outbreak
outbreak investigationHovi et al. 1986 Lancet
quote
An outbreak of 9 cases of paralytic poliomyelitis and 1 non-paralytic case occurred in Finland between August, 1984, and January, 1985, after two decades of freedom from the disease attributable to a successful immunisation programme.
abstract
The abstract estimates that well over a hundred thousand persons were infected, illustrating how few infections become paralytic even with a strain poorly matched to the IPV then in use.
Paralytic poliomyelitis incidence in an outbreak despite high OPV coverage
severity: paralysis
strain: wild poliovirus type 1
case definition: Paralytic poliomyelitis type 1
children younger than 2 years
vaccination status: mixed
country: Oman
setting: outbreak
period: 1988-1989
Infant <1y1-4y
87
incidence per 100,000
per 100,000 children under 2 years
outbreak investigationSutter et al. 1991 Lancet
quote
Incidence of paralytic disease was highest in children younger than 2 years (87/100,000) despite an immunisation programme that recently had raised coverage with 3 doses of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) among 12-month-old children from 67% to 87%.
abstract
Occurred while 3-dose OPV coverage at 12 months was rising from 67% to 87%, showing that outbreaks can still happen at high coverage when OPV efficacy is sub-optimal and the primary series is completed late.
Spinal polio as a share of paralytic cases
severity: paralysis
case definition: Paralytic polio classified by level of involvement
all ages (not stratified)
vaccination status: not reported
country: United States
setting: national surveillance
period: 1969-1979
All ages
79
proportion of paralytic cases (%)
per paralytic case
surveillancecdc.gov
quote
Spinal polio is most common, and during 1969–1979 accounted for 79% of paralytic cases.
Clinical Features
The cached year range contains an encoding artefact for the en dash; the figures are unaffected.
Bulbar polio as a share of paralytic cases
severity: bulbar paralysis
case definition: Weakness of facial, oropharyngeal and respiratory muscles innervated by cranial nerves
all ages (not stratified)
vaccination status: not reported
country: United States
setting: national surveillance
period: 1969-1979
All ages
2
proportion of paralytic cases (%)
per paralytic case
surveillancecdc.gov
quote
Bulbar polio presents with weakness of facial, oropharyngeal, and respiratory muscles innervated by cranial nerves and accounted for 2% of cases during this period.
Clinical Features
Bulbospinal polio as a share of paralytic cases
severity: bulbospinal paralysis
case definition: Combined bulbar and spinal paralysis
all ages (not stratified)
vaccination status: not reported
country: United States
setting: national surveillance
period: 1969-1979
All ages
19
proportion of paralytic cases (%)
per paralytic case
surveillancecdc.gov
quote
Bulbospinal polio, a combination of bulbar and spinal paralysis, accounted for 19% of cases.
Clinical Features
Reported paralytic poliomyelitis cases in the peak pre-vaccine year
severity: paralysis
case definition: Reported paralytic cases, national notification
all ages
vaccination status: unvaccinated
country: United States
setting: national surveillance
period: 1952 (pre-vaccine era)
All ages
21,000
reported paralytic cases per year (count)
per year, national
surveillancecdc.gov
quote
Polio infections peaked in the United States in 1952, with more than 21,000 paralytic cases.
Secular Trends
Pre-vaccine peak year. Compare the following records for the post-IPV and post-OPV eras.
Reported paralytic poliomyelitis cases after IPV introduction
severity: paralysis
case definition: Reported paralytic cases, national notification
all ages
vaccination status: mixed
country: United States
setting: national surveillance
period: 1960 (IPV era, before OPV)
All ages
2,525
reported paralytic cases per year (count)
per year, national
surveillancecdc.gov
quote
From the more than 21,000 paralytic cases reported in 1952, only 2,525 cases were reported in 1960 and 61 cases in 1965.
Secular Trends
The same sentence gives 61 cases in 1965 after OPV introduction.
Confirmed paralytic poliomyelitis cases, post-elimination era
severity: paralysis
case definition: Confirmed paralytic poliomyelitis, national notification
all ages
vaccination status: mixed
country: United States
setting: national surveillance
period: 1980-1999
All ages
8
average confirmed paralytic cases per year (count)
per year, national
surveillancecdc.gov
quote
From 1980–1999, 162 confirmed cases of paralytic poliomyelitis were reported in the United States, an average of 8 cases per year.
Secular Trends
Almost all of these were vaccine-associated (next record), not wild-virus disease.
Share of US paralytic polio cases that were vaccine-associated (VAPP)
severity: paralysis
case definition: VAPP caused by Sabin strains in OPV
all ages
vaccination status: mixed
country: United States
setting: national surveillance
period: 1980-1999
All ages
95
proportion of confirmed paralytic cases (%)
per confirmed paralytic polio case
surveillancecdc.gov
quote
The remaining 154 (95%) cases were vaccine-associated paralytic polio (VAPP) caused by the Sabin poliovirus strains contained in OPV vaccine.
Secular Trends
Burden composition in a country without wild poliovirus: once wild virus is gone, OPV itself becomes the main source of paralytic polio, which is why the US later switched to an IPV-only schedule. The VAPP rate per dose is in the safety records.
Wild poliovirus paralytic cases worldwide
severity: paralysis
case definition: Reported wild poliovirus cases
all ages
vaccination status: mixed
country: multiple (endemic in two countries)
setting: global surveillance
period: 2019
All ages
125
reported wild poliovirus cases per year (count)
per year, global
surveillancecdc.gov
quote
By 2019, only 125 cases caused by wild poliovirus were reported globally, a reduction of more than 99% from 1988, and polio remained endemic in only two countries.
Eradication
Paralysis from circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2
severity: paralysis
case definition: cVDPV2 outbreak cases
children
vaccination status: mixed
country: multiple (20 countries in Africa and Asia)
setting: global surveillance
period: 2019
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y
369
reported cVDPV2 paralytic cases per year (count)
per year, global
surveillancecdc.gov
quote
In 2019, circulating type 2 VDPV caused outbreaks in 20 countries in Africa and Asia, and paralyzed 369 children.
Eradication
cVDPV cases are caused by reverted OPV strains circulating in under-immunised populations; they are a consequence of OPV use plus low coverage, not of wild virus.
Share of paralytic cases caused by poliovirus type 1
severity: paralysis
strain: poliovirus type 1
case definition: Serotype of paralytic poliomyelitis cases, pre-vaccine United States
all ages
vaccination status: unvaccinated
country: United States
setting: laboratory typing of isolates
period: pre-vaccine era
All ages
80
proportion of paralytic cases (%)
per paralytic case
surveillanceebi.ac.uk
quote
In the prevaccine era in the United States ( 16 ), it was observed that the 3 poliovirus types varied substantially in their paralytogenicity ( Table 1 ); type 1 accounted for approximately 80% of paralytic cases ( 17 , 18 ).
Background, Table 1 discussion
Death from paralytic poliomyelitis, Sweden 1935-1944
severity: death
case definition: Deaths among reported paralytic cases
all ages
vaccination status: unvaccinated
country: Sweden
setting: national notification
period: 1935-1944 (pre-vaccine era)
n: 11,455 paralytic cases
All ages
13.9
CFR (%)
per paralytic case
surveillanceebi.ac.uk
quote
Chronologic Trends in the Poliomyelitis Case-Fatality Rate in Sweden, 1905–1944 a 1905 | 1911–1913 | 1925–1934 | 1935–1944 | No. of paralytic cases | 868 | 6,775 | 4,156 | 11,455 | No. of deaths | 145 | 1,239 | 624 | 1,594 | Case-fatality rate, % | 16.7 | 18.3 | 15.0 | 13.9 | a Data were obtained from Olin ( 42 ).
Table 4
Table gives 16.7% (1905), 18.3% (1911-1913), 15.0% (1925-1934) and 13.9% (1935-1944): a stable, high case fatality in a country where cases were older than in low-income settings. Case fatality rises steeply with age (Pink Book records).
Death from paralytic poliomyelitis, Sweden 1905
severity: death
case definition: Deaths among reported paralytic cases
all ages
vaccination status: unvaccinated
country: Sweden
setting: national notification
period: 1905 epidemic (pre-vaccine era)
n: 868 paralytic cases
All ages
16.7
CFR (%)
per paralytic case
surveillanceebi.ac.uk
quote
Chronologic Trends in the Poliomyelitis Case-Fatality Rate in Sweden, 1905–1944 a 1905 | 1911–1913 | 1925–1934 | 1935–1944 | No. of paralytic cases | 868 | 6,775 | 4,156 | 11,455 | No. of deaths | 145 | 1,239 | 624 | 1,594 | Case-fatality rate, % | 16.7 | 18.3 | 15.0 | 13.9 | a Data were obtained from Olin ( 42 ).
Table 4
Paralytic poliomyelitis incidence in rural under-fives
severity: paralysis
case definition: Lameness survey, paralytic poliomyelitis in the previous 12 months
children under five
vaccination status: mixed
country: India
setting: community survey, rural
period: 1988
n: 42,045 surveyed
Infant <1y1-4y
2.57
estimated annual incidence per 1,000 under-fives
per 1,000 children under five per year
surveillanceBalraj et al. 1990 Int J Epidemiol
quote
Some 67 children had poliomyelitis (prevalence of lameness 1.59/1000, estimated annual incidence 2.57/1000 under-fives).
abstract
Same sentence gives lameness prevalence 1.59 per 1,000 under-fives. Endemic-era LMIC burden with partial OPV coverage.
Wild poliovirus type 1 paralytic cases worldwide
severity: paralysis
strain: wild poliovirus type 1
case definition: Reported WPV1 cases, AFP surveillance
all ages (mostly children under 5)
vaccination status: mixed
country: Afghanistan and Pakistan
setting: national surveillance
period: 2023
All ages
12
reported WPV1 cases per year (count)
per year, global
surveillanceebi.ac.uk
quote
In 2023, Afghanistan and Pakistan identified 12 total WPV1 polio cases, compared with 22 in 2022.
Summary
Same sentence: 22 cases in 2022. Only the two endemic countries reported WPV1 cases in 2023.
Circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus paralytic cases worldwide
severity: paralysis
strain: cVDPV (predominantly type 2)
case definition: Reported cVDPV cases (all serotypes), AFP surveillance
all ages (mostly children under 5)
vaccination status: mixed
country: multiple (outbreaks in 32 countries)
setting: global surveillance
period: 2023
All ages
524
reported cVDPV cases per year (count)
per year, global
surveillanceebi.ac.uk
quote
The number of polio cases caused by circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs; circulating vaccine virus strains that have reverted to neurovirulence) decreased from 881 in 2022 to 524 in 2023; cVDPV outbreaks (defined as either a cVDPV case with evidence of circulation or at least two positive environmental surveillance isolates) occurred in 32 countries in 2023, including eight that did not experience a cVDPV outbreak in 2022.
Summary
881 cases in 2022. cVDPV paralysis now exceeds wild-virus paralysis by an order of magnitude (compare the WPV1 record from the same report).
Wild poliovirus type 1 paralytic cases, Afghanistan, 2026 year to date
severity: paralysis
strain: wild poliovirus type 1
case definition: Reported WPV1 cases, AFP surveillance
all ages (mostly children under 5)
vaccination status: mixed
country: Afghanistan
setting: national surveillance
period: 2026 (to 14 October)
All ages
36
reported WPV1 cases, year to date (count)
per year, national
surveillancepolioeradication.org
quote
The total number of cases in 2026 is 36.
Country updates as of 14 October 2026, Afghanistan
Year-to-date count from the GPEI weekly page; it will change. The cached sentence does not name the country; it sits under the Afghanistan heading (Pakistan's 2026 count is written as the word six, so it cannot be compiled).
Wild poliovirus type 1 paralytic cases, Afghanistan, 2025
severity: paralysis
strain: wild poliovirus type 1
case definition: Reported WPV1 cases, AFP surveillance
all ages (mostly children under 5)
vaccination status: mixed
country: Afghanistan
setting: national surveillance
period: 2025
All ages
21
reported WPV1 cases per year (count)
per year, national
surveillancepolioeradication.org
quote
The total number of cases in 2025 is 21.
Country updates as of 14 October 2026, Afghanistan
Wild poliovirus type 1 paralytic cases, Pakistan, 2025
severity: paralysis
strain: wild poliovirus type 1
case definition: Reported WPV1 cases, AFP surveillance
all ages (mostly children under 5)
vaccination status: mixed
country: Pakistan
setting: national surveillance
period: 2025
All ages
31
reported WPV1 cases per year (count)
per year, national
surveillancepolioeradication.org
quote
The total number of cases in 2025 is 31.
Country updates as of 14 October 2026, Pakistan
cVDPV2 paralytic cases, DR Congo, 2026 year to date
severity: paralysis
strain: cVDPV2
case definition: Reported cVDPV2 cases, AFP surveillance
all ages (mostly children under 5)
vaccination status: mixed
country: Democratic Republic of the Congo
setting: national surveillance
period: 2026 (to 14 October)
All ages
71
reported cVDPV2 cases, year to date (count)
per year, national
surveillancepolioeradication.org
quote
The number of cVDPV2 cases in 2026 is 71 (most recent case: 5 September 2026).
Country updates as of 14 October 2026, Democratic Republic of the Congo
Year-to-date; DRC had seven cVDPV2 cases in the preceding year per the same page.
cVDPV2 paralytic cases, Nigeria, 2026 year to date
severity: paralysis
strain: cVDPV2
case definition: Reported cVDPV2 cases, AFP surveillance
all ages (mostly children under 5)
vaccination status: mixed
country: Nigeria
setting: national surveillance
period: 2026 (to 14 October)
All ages
36
reported cVDPV2 cases, year to date (count)
per year, national
surveillancepolioeradication.org
quote
The total number of cVDPV2 cases reported in 2026 is 36 (most recent case: 21 August 2026).
Country updates as of 14 October 2026, Nigeria
cVDPV2 paralytic cases, Nigeria, 2025
severity: paralysis
strain: cVDPV2
case definition: Reported cVDPV2 cases, AFP surveillance
all ages (mostly children under 5)
vaccination status: mixed
country: Nigeria
setting: national surveillance
period: 2025
All ages
66
reported cVDPV2 cases per year (count)
per year, national
surveillancepolioeradication.org
quote
The total number of cVDPV2 cases reported in 2025 is 66.
Country updates as of 14 October 2026, Nigeria
cVDPV2 paralytic cases during continuous transmission in Nigeria
severity: paralysis
strain: cVDPV2
case definition: Detected cVDPV2 poliomyelitis cases
children (cases under 60 months in the study)
vaccination status: mixed
country: Nigeria
setting: national surveillance
period: 2018-2022
Infant <1y1-4y
526
cVDPV2 paralytic cases (count)
per 2018-2022, national
surveillanceCooper et al. 2024 Lancet Infect Dis
quote
BACKGROUND: Between 2018 and 2022, Nigeria experienced continuous transmission of circulating vaccine-derived type 2 poliovirus (cVDPV2), with 526 cases of cVDPV2 poliomyelitis detected in total and approximately 180 million doses of monovalent type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (mOPV2) and 450 million doses of novel type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (nOPV2) delivered in outbreak response campaigns.
abstract, BACKGROUND
Occurred despite roughly 180 million mOPV2 and 450 million nOPV2 campaign doses in the same period.
cVDPV2 paralytic cases, Somalia
severity: paralysis
strain: cVDPV2
case definition: Detected cVDPV2 cases, AFP surveillance
all ages (mostly children under 5)
vaccination status: mixed
country: Somalia
setting: national surveillance, security-compromised areas
period: January 2017-March 2024
All ages
39
cVDPV2 cases (count)
per 2017-2024, national
surveillanceMendes et al. 2024 MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep
quote
During January 2017-March 2024, officials in Somalia detected 39 cVDPV2 cases in 14 of 20 regions, and transmission has spread to neighboring Ethiopia and Kenya.
abstract
Share of cVDPV paralytic cases due to serotype 2
severity: paralysis
strain: cVDPV2
case definition: Reported human cVDPV cases, global compilation
all ages
vaccination status: mixed
country: multiple (40 countries)
setting: global compilation
period: January 2016-June 2021
n: 1818 cVDPV cases
All ages
95
proportion of cVDPV cases (%)
per reported cVDPV case
surveillanceLai et al. 2022 EClinicalMedicine
quote
FINDINGS: cVDPV caused by serotype 2 poliovirus was the predominant strain (95%) of 1818 total human cVDPV cases reported.
abstract, FINDINGS
Infections per paralytic case, poliovirus type 1
severity: paralysis
strain: poliovirus type 1
case definition: Paralytic poliomyelitis cases per infection, by serotype, assuming an overall ratio of 1:150
all ages
vaccination status: unvaccinated
country: United States
setting: pre-vaccine era serotype distribution applied to an overall case:infection ratio
period: pre-vaccine era
All ages
190
infections per paralytic case
per paralytic case
modellingebi.ac.uk
quote
Ratio of Paralytic Poliomyelitis Cases to Number of Infections for the 3 Serotypes of Poliovirus, Assuming an Overall Ratio of 1:150 a Poliovirus Serotype | % of Paralytic Cases | No. of Paralytic Cases per 100 Infections | No. of Infections per Paralytic Case | 1 | 79 | 0.526 | 190 | 2 | 8 | 0.053 | 1,886 | 3 | 13 | 0.087 | 1,149 | Total | 100 | 0.667 | 150 | a The distribution of paralytic cases by serotype was based on unpublished laboratory studies on typing of poliovirus isolates for the United States for 1955, as reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( 17 ).
Table 1
Derived table: the authors apportion an assumed overall 1:150 ratio across serotypes using the serotype distribution of paralytic cases (79% type 1, 8% type 2, 13% type 3). Same table also gives 0.526 paralytic cases per 100 infections for type 1.
Infections per paralytic case, poliovirus type 2
severity: paralysis
strain: poliovirus type 2
case definition: Paralytic poliomyelitis cases per infection, by serotype, assuming an overall ratio of 1:150
all ages
vaccination status: unvaccinated
country: United States
setting: pre-vaccine era serotype distribution applied to an overall case:infection ratio
period: pre-vaccine era
All ages
1,886
infections per paralytic case
per paralytic case
modellingebi.ac.uk
quote
Ratio of Paralytic Poliomyelitis Cases to Number of Infections for the 3 Serotypes of Poliovirus, Assuming an Overall Ratio of 1:150 a Poliovirus Serotype | % of Paralytic Cases | No. of Paralytic Cases per 100 Infections | No. of Infections per Paralytic Case | 1 | 79 | 0.526 | 190 | 2 | 8 | 0.053 | 1,886 | 3 | 13 | 0.087 | 1,149 | Total | 100 | 0.667 | 150 | a The distribution of paralytic cases by serotype was based on unpublished laboratory studies on typing of poliovirus isolates for the United States for 1955, as reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( 17 ).
Table 1
Type 2 is the least paralytogenic wild serotype (0.053 paralytic cases per 100 infections in the same table). Wild type 2 has since been certified eradicated; type 2 paralysis today is from cVDPV2.
Infections per paralytic case, poliovirus type 3
severity: paralysis
strain: poliovirus type 3
case definition: Paralytic poliomyelitis cases per infection, by serotype, assuming an overall ratio of 1:150
all ages
vaccination status: unvaccinated
country: United States
setting: pre-vaccine era serotype distribution applied to an overall case:infection ratio
period: pre-vaccine era
All ages
1,149
infections per paralytic case
per paralytic case
modellingebi.ac.uk
quote
Ratio of Paralytic Poliomyelitis Cases to Number of Infections for the 3 Serotypes of Poliovirus, Assuming an Overall Ratio of 1:150 a Poliovirus Serotype | % of Paralytic Cases | No. of Paralytic Cases per 100 Infections | No. of Infections per Paralytic Case | 1 | 79 | 0.526 | 190 | 2 | 8 | 0.053 | 1,886 | 3 | 13 | 0.087 | 1,149 | Total | 100 | 0.667 | 150 | a The distribution of paralytic cases by serotype was based on unpublished laboratory studies on typing of poliovirus isolates for the United States for 1955, as reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( 17 ).
Table 1
Death among children admitted with acute poliomyelitis
severity: death
case definition: Clinically diagnosed acute poliomyelitis admitted to a children's hospital
2 months to 75 months
vaccination status: partially vaccinated
country: India
setting: hospital
period: 1988-1989
n: 614 children
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y
3.3
CFR (%)
per admitted case
case seriesDeivanayagam et al. 1992 Indian Pediatr
quote
Case fatality was 3.3%.
abstract
Hospital series in a low-income urban setting; only about a quarter had three or more OPV doses.
Spinobulbar and bulbar presentation among admitted children
severity: bulbar or spinobulbar paralysis
case definition: Clinical form of acute poliomyelitis
2 months to 75 months
vaccination status: partially vaccinated
country: India
setting: hospital
period: 1988-1989
n: 614 children
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y
18
proportion of admitted cases with spinobulbar form (%)
per admitted case
case seriesDeivanayagam et al. 1992 Indian Pediatr
quote
The commonest presentation was spinal form (80%) followed by spinobulbar (18%) and bulbar form (2%).
abstract
Same sentence: spinal 80%, bulbar 2%.
Severe paralysis among admitted children
severity: severe paralysis
case definition: Clinical grading of paralysis
2 months to 75 months
vaccination status: partially vaccinated
country: India
setting: hospital
period: 1988-1989
n: 614 children
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y
72
proportion of admitted cases (%)
per admitted case
case seriesDeivanayagam et al. 1992 Indian Pediatr
quote
Paralysis was severe in 72%, moderate in 6% and mild in 22%.
abstract

Vaccine efficacy and effectiveness

Every estimate compiled, annotated by population (P), intervention (I), comparator (C), outcome (O) and study design (S).

Outcome (O)Population (P)Intervention / comparatorEstimateDesign (S)Source
Detectable antibody to poliovirus types 1 and 3 after three tOPV doses (surrogate)
severity: surrogate (antibody)
strain: poliovirus types 1 and 3
case definition: Seroconversion in studies from developing countries
children (infants in primary series)
country: multiple developing countries
setting: LMIC
period: studies up to 1991
Infant <1y1-4y
trivalent OPV (tOPV)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: 3
vs none (industrialized-country rates approach 100% in the same sentence)
73
proportion with detectable antibody to type 1 (%), 3 doses
systematic reviewPatriarca et al. 1991 Rev Infect Dis
quote
Although rates of seroconversion following administration of trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (TOPV) approach 100% in industrialized countries, only 73% (range, 36%-99%) and 70% (range, 40%-99%) of children in developing countries have detectable antibody to poliovirus types 1 and 3, respectively, after three doses.
abstract
Type 3: 70% (range 40%-99%). Interference from type 2 vaccine virus and enteric pathogens is the explanation offered; range across studies is very wide.
Seroconversion to poliovirus types 1, 2 and 3 (surrogate)
severity: surrogate (antibody)
case definition: Seroconversion after enhanced-potency IPV, pooled across study arms
infants
country: multiple
setting: mostly LMIC routine schedules
Infant <1y
inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), enhanced potency
platform: inactivated, intramuscular
doses: 1
vs none (single-arm pooled proportions)
33
proportion seroconverting to type 1 (%), 1 full dose (average)
meta-analysis
20 study arms from 12 articles
Grassly 2014 J Infect Dis
quote
One full dose of intramuscular IPV seroconverted 33%, 41%, and 47% of infants against serotypes 1, 2, and 3 on average, whereas 2 full doses seroconverted 79%, 80%, and 90%, respectively.
abstract, RESULTS
Same sentence gives types 2 and 3 after one dose and all three types after two doses (next record). Seroconversion increased with age at administration. The review states that limited case-control data indicate clinical efficacy equivalent to the proportion seroconverting.
Seroconversion to poliovirus types 1, 2 and 3 (surrogate)
severity: surrogate (antibody)
case definition: Seroconversion after enhanced-potency IPV, pooled across study arms
infants
country: multiple
setting: mostly LMIC routine schedules
Infant <1y
inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), enhanced potency
platform: inactivated, intramuscular
doses: 2
vs none (single-arm pooled proportions)
79
proportion seroconverting to type 1 (%), 2 full doses (average)
meta-analysis
20 study arms from 12 articles
Grassly 2014 J Infect Dis
quote
One full dose of intramuscular IPV seroconverted 33%, 41%, and 47% of infants against serotypes 1, 2, and 3 on average, whereas 2 full doses seroconverted 79%, 80%, and 90%, respectively.
abstract, RESULTS
Type 2 80%, type 3 90% after two doses.
Poliovirus shedding in stool after OPV challenge (intestinal immunity)
severity: surrogate (intestinal immunity, transmission)
case definition: Prevalence of shedding 5-30 days after a challenge OPV dose
children in challenge studies
country: multiple
setting: challenge studies published to May 2011
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y
oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: as per included schedules
vs unvaccinated individuals
0.13 (0.08–0.24)
OR for shedding after challenge
meta-analysis
31 stool-shedding studies
Hird et al. 2012 PLoS Pathog
quote
Individuals vaccinated with OPV were protected against infection and shedding of poliovirus in stool samples collected after challenge compared with unvaccinated individuals (summary odds ratio [OR] for shedding 0.13 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.08-0.24)).
abstract
OPV protects against infection and shedding; IPV does not (next record). This is the mechanistic reason OPV, not IPV, is used to stop transmission in faecal-oral settings.
Poliovirus shedding in stool after OPV challenge (intestinal immunity)
severity: surrogate (intestinal immunity, transmission)
case definition: Prevalence of shedding 5-30 days after a challenge OPV dose
children in challenge studies
country: multiple
setting: challenge studies published to May 2011
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y
inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV)
platform: inactivated, intramuscular
doses: as per included schedules
vs unvaccinated individuals
0.81 (0.59–1.11)
OR for shedding after challenge
meta-analysisHird et al. 2012 PLoS Pathog
quote
In contrast, IPV provided no protection against shedding compared with unvaccinated individuals (summary OR 0.81 [95% CI 0.59-1.11]) or when given in addition to OPV, compared with individuals given OPV alone (summary OR 1.14 [95% CI 0.82-1.58]).
abstract
A null result for a different outcome from paralysis: IPV prevents paralysis but not intestinal infection. IPV added to OPV vs OPV alone: OR 1.14 (0.82-1.58).
Per-dose seroconversion to poliovirus type 1 with concurrent non-polio enterovirus infection (surrogate)
severity: surrogate (antibody)
strain: poliovirus type 1
case definition: Seroconversion in trials stratified by presence of enteric infection at vaccination
children in OPV trials
country: multiple (mostly LMIC)
setting: LMIC
Infant <1y1-4y
oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: per dose
vs OPV recipients without concurrent NPEV infection
0.44 (0.23–0.84)
OR for per-dose seroconversion, NPEV-infected vs uninfected
meta-analysis
25 trials
Parker et al. 2014 J Infect Dis
quote
Concurrent NPEVs significantly reduced the odds of per-dose seroconversion for type 1 poliovirus (odds ratio [OR] 0.44, 95% confidence interval 0.23-0.84), but not type 2 (OR 0.53 [0.19-1.46]) or type 3 (OR 0.56 [0.27-1.12]).
abstract, RESULTS
Concurrent diarrhoea also reduced seroconversion overall. Explains part of the LMIC vs high-income gap in OPV performance.
Seroconversion to poliovirus type 2 (surrogate), bOPV vs tOPV schedules
severity: surrogate (antibody)
strain: poliovirus type 2
case definition: Network meta-analysis of RCTs outside western Europe and North America
infants in primary series
country: multiple (LMIC and middle-income trial sites)
setting: LMIC/middle-income RCTs 1980-2018
Infant <1y
bivalent OPV types 1 and 3 (bOPV), 3 doses
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: 3
vs three doses of trivalent OPV
0.14 (0.11–0.17)
RR of seroconversion vs three tOPV doses
meta-analysis
17 studies, up to 8279 infants
Macklin et al. 2019 Lancet Infect Dis
quote
For serotype 2, there was low between-trial heterogeneity in the data (τ=0·05, 95% credible interval [CrI] 0·009-0·15) and the risk ratio (RR) of seroconversion after three doses of bivalent OPVs was 0·14 (95% CrI 0·11-0·17) compared with three doses of trivalent OPVs.
abstract, FINDINGS
Adding one or two IPV doses to bOPV brought type 2 seroconversion back to about the tOPV level, but intestinal immunity to type 2 stayed low.
Seroconversion to poliovirus type 2 (surrogate), fractional vs full-dose IPV
severity: surrogate (antibody)
strain: poliovirus type 2
case definition: Proportion seroconverted at least 4 weeks after vaccination
children aged 5 years or younger
country: multiple
setting: trials and observational studies, mostly LMIC
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y
fractional-dose IPV (0.1 mL)
platform: inactivated, intradermal
doses: 1
vs full-dose IPV (0.5 mL)
0.61 (0.51–0.72)
RR of seroconversion, fractional vs full dose, 1 dose
meta-analysis
GRADE: moderate
10 completed studies in 12 articles
Mashunye et al. 2021 Lancet Infect Dis
quote
For poliovirus type 2, there were no significant differences in the proportions of seroconversions between fractional and full doses of IPV for two or three doses: the risk ratio for serconversion at one dose was 0·61 (95% CI 0·51-0·72), at two doses was 0·90 (0·82-1·00), and at three doses was 0·95 (0·91-1·00).
abstract, FINDINGS
RR 0.90 (0.82-1.00) at two doses and 0.95 (0.91-1.00) at three doses (high certainty for the three-dose comparison). Titres were lower with fractional dosing at every dose count.
Seroconversion to poliovirus type 1 after one dose (surrogate), intradermal fractional vs intramuscular full-dose IPV
severity: surrogate (antibody)
strain: poliovirus type 1
case definition: Seroconversion after a single primary dose
children
country: multiple (9 middle-income, 3 high-income, 1 low-income study)
setting: mixed
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y
fractional-dose IPV (one fifth, intradermal)
platform: inactivated, intradermal
doses: 1
vs full-dose intramuscular IPV
0.30 (0.22–0.41)
OR for seroconversion, fractional intradermal vs full intramuscular
meta-analysis
GRADE: low
6 studies, 2570 children
Jaiswal et al. 2019 Cochrane Database Syst Rev
quote
These were significantly higher for all three types of wild poliovirus for children given intramuscular full-dose IPV after a single primary dose and two primary doses, but only significantly higher for type two wild poliovirus given intramuscularly after three primary doses: • dose one (six studies): poliovirus type 1 (odds ratio (OR) 0.30, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.22 to 0.41; 2570 children); poliovirus type 2 (OR 0.43, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.60; 2567 children); poliovirus type 3 (OR 0.19, 95% CI 0.12 to 0.30; 2571 children); • dose two (three studies): poliovirus type 1 (OR 0.23, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.33; 981 children); poliovirus type 2 (OR 0.41, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.60; 853 children); and poliovirus type 3 (OR 0.12, 95% CI 0.07 to 0.22; 855 children); and • dose three (three studies): poliovirus type 1 (OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.07 to 3.15; 973 children); poliovirus type 2 (OR 0.34, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.63; 973 children); and poliovirus type 3 (OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.01 to 2.58; 973 children).
abstract, MAIN RESULTS
Cochrane rated the certainty low or very low and found no study reporting paralytic poliomyelitis as an outcome. Same abstract: after three doses the type 1 OR was 0.45 (0.07-3.15) and type 2 OR 0.34 (0.19-0.63).
Seroconversion to all three poliovirus types (surrogate of protection)
severity: surrogate (antibody)
case definition: Protective antibody to all three types after IPV
infants and children on the routine schedule
country: United States
setting: expert summary
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y
inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV)
platform: inactivated, intramuscular
doses: 2
vs none (single-arm immunogenicity)
90
proportion with protective antibody (%), 2 doses
expert bodycdc.gov
quote
Immunogenicity and Vaccine Efficacy Poliovirus Vaccine Efficacy (IPV) Highly effective in producing immunity to poliovirus 90% or more immune after 2 doses At least 99% immune after 3 doses Duration of immunity not known with certainty, although probably lifelong IPV vaccine is highly effective in producing immunity to poliovirus and protection from paralytic poliomyelitis.
Immunogenicity and Vaccine Efficacy (summary box)
Surrogate: antibody, not observed paralysis. Same sentence gives the three-dose figure (next record). CDC states that protection against paralytic disease correlates with the presence of antibody after vaccination.
Seroconversion to all three poliovirus types (surrogate of protection)
severity: surrogate (antibody)
case definition: Protective antibody to all three types after IPV
infants and children on the routine schedule
country: United States
setting: expert summary
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y
inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV)
platform: inactivated, intramuscular
doses: 3
vs none (single-arm immunogenicity)
99
proportion immune (%), 3 doses
expert bodycdc.gov
quote
Ninety percent or more of vaccine recipients develop protective antibody to all three poliovirus types after 2 doses, and at least 99% are immune following 3 doses.
Immunogenicity and Vaccine Efficacy
Surrogate measure. Duration of IPV immunity is described by CDC as not known with certainty, although probably lifelong.
Seroconversion to all three poliovirus types after one tOPV dose (surrogate)
severity: surrogate (antibody)
case definition: Immunity to all three vaccine viruses
infants
country: industrialized countries
setting: expert summary
Infant <1y
trivalent OPV (tOPV)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: 1
vs none (single-arm immunogenicity)
50
proportion immune to all three types (%), 1 dose
expert bodycdc.gov
quote
Because of interference among serotypes during intestinal replication, a single dose of tOPV produces immunity to all three vaccine viruses in approximately 50% of recipients.
Immunogenicity and Vaccine Efficacy
Interference among serotypes during intestinal replication limits the single-dose response.
Seroconversion to all three poliovirus types after three tOPV doses (surrogate)
severity: surrogate (antibody)
case definition: Immunity to all three vaccine viruses
infants
country: industrialized countries
setting: expert summary, high-income
Infant <1y
trivalent OPV (tOPV)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: 3
vs none (single-arm immunogenicity)
95
proportion immune to all three types (%), 3 doses
expert bodycdc.gov
quote
Subsequent doses cause less interference during intestinal replication and 3 doses produce immunity to all three poliovirus types in more than 95% of recipients in industrialized countries.
Immunogenicity and Vaccine Efficacy
Contrast with the much lower developing-country figures for types 1 and 3 (next record): the setting gap is the central fact of OPV performance.
Seroconversion to poliovirus types 1, 2 and 3 (surrogate)
severity: surrogate (antibody)
case definition: Neutralising antibody seroconversion at least 4 weeks after last dose
infants vaccinated at 6, 10 and 14 weeks
country: Cuba
setting: tropical middle-income, RCT
period: about 2005
n: 166 infants randomised (groups A and B)
Infant <1y
DPT-Hib-IPV combination
platform: inactivated, intramuscular
doses: 3 (6, 10, 14 weeks)
vs DPT-Hib without IPV (no seroconversions in group B)
94
proportion seroconverting to type 1 (%), 3 doses
RCTCuba 2007 N Engl J Med
quote
RESULTS: The seroconversion rates in group A were 94%, 83%, and 100% for types 1, 2, and 3 poliovirus, respectively.
abstract, RESULTS
Types 2 and 3 are in the same sentence. Two doses at a later schedule (non-randomised group C) gave around ninety percent for each type. Placebo-controlled for seroconversion, not for paralysis.
Seroconversion to poliovirus type 1 after two doses (surrogate)
severity: surrogate (antibody)
strain: poliovirus type 1
case definition: Cumulative two-dose seroconversion, doses at birth and 30 days
newborns
country: India
setting: three centres, LMIC, RCT
period: 2008
n: 830 newborns analysed
NeonateInfant <1y
bivalent OPV types 1 and 3 (bOPV)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: 2
vs trivalent OPV, 63% (106 of 168)
86
proportion seroconverting (%), 2 doses
RCTSutter et al. 2010 Lancet
quote
Cumulative two-dose seroconversion to poliovirus type 1 was 90% (151 of 168) for mOPV1 and 86% (136 of 159) for bOPV compared with 63% (106 of 168) for tOPV (p<0·0001), to poliovirus type 2 was 90% (153 of 170) for mOPV2 compared with 91% (153 of 168) for tOPV (p>0·01), and to poliovirus type 3 was 84% (138 of 165) for mOPV3 and 74% (117 of 159) for bOPV compared with 52% (87 of 168) for tOPV (p<0·0001).
abstract, RESULTS
Same sentence: mOPV1 figure. Type 3 two-dose seroconversion was lower for every product. First-dose seroconversion at birth was low for any product.
Seroconversion to poliovirus type 2 (surrogate)
severity: surrogate (antibody)
strain: poliovirus type 2
case definition: Neutralising antibody seroconversion after primary series
infants from 6 weeks
country: Colombia, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Panama
setting: Latin America, middle-income, RCT
period: 2013
Infant <1y
bivalent OPV only (6, 10, 14 weeks)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: 3
vs tOPV only: 97.7% (92.1-99.4); bOPV plus one IPV dose: 80.4% (74.3-85.4)
9.6 (6.2–14.5)
proportion seroconverting (%)
RCTAsturias et al. 2016 Lancet
quote
Type 2 seroconversion occurred in 19 of 198 infants (9·6%, 95% CI 6·2-14·5) in the bOPV-only groups, 86 of 88 (97·7%, 92·1-99·4) in the tOPV-only group (p<0·0001 vs bOPV-only), and 156 of 194 (80·4%, 74·3-85·4) infants in the bOPV-one dose of IPV group (p<0·0001 vs bOPV-only).
abstract, FINDINGS
Shows the type 2 immunity gap created by the global tOPV-to-bOPV switch and why at least one IPV dose is now universal. Types 1 and 3 seroconversion was at least 97.7% with either OPV.
Seroconversion to poliovirus type 2 (surrogate)
severity: surrogate (antibody)
strain: poliovirus type 2
case definition: Neutralising antibody seroconversion after primary series
infants from 6 weeks
country: Colombia, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Panama
setting: Latin America, middle-income, RCT
period: 2013
n: 193 infants
Infant <1y
bivalent OPV plus two IPV doses (14 and 36 weeks)
platform: live attenuated oral plus inactivated
doses: 3 bOPV + 2 IPV
vs bOPV only (9.6%)
100 (98.0–100)
proportion seroconverting (%)
RCTAsturias et al. 2016 Lancet
quote
After a bOPV-two IPV schedule, all 193 infants (100%, 98·0-100; p<0·0001 vs bOPV-only) seroconverted to type 2.
abstract, FINDINGS
IPV induced only small decreases in type 2 faecal shedding after mOPV2 challenge, so humoral and intestinal immunity diverge (mucosal immunity records).
Seroconversion to poliovirus type 2 (surrogate)
severity: surrogate (antibody)
strain: poliovirus type 2
case definition: Neutralising antibody seroconversion
infants enrolled at 14 days or younger
country: Nigeria
setting: sub-Saharan Africa EPI schedule, RCT
period: 2016-2017
n: 572 infants randomised
Infant <1y
bOPV (birth, 6, 10 weeks) plus IPV at 14 weeks
platform: inactivated (type 2 component)
doses: 1 IPV
vs same arm after a second IPV dose at 18 weeks: 95.9% (92.8-97.9)
72.0 (66.2–77.3)
proportion seroconverting (%), 1 IPV dose
RCTTagbo et al. 2022 J Infect Dis
quote
Type 2 seroconversion with 1 dose IPV in Arm A was 72.0% (95% CI, 66.2-77.3), which increased significantly with addition of second dose to 95.9% (95% CI, 92.8-97.9).
abstract, RESULTS
A second IPV dose closes most of the type 2 gap, the basis for WHO's two-dose IPV recommendation.
Seroconversion to poliovirus type 2 (surrogate)
severity: surrogate (antibody)
strain: poliovirus type 2
case definition: Neutralising antibody seroconversion against type 2 at 8 weeks
newborns (doses at 0-3 days and 4 weeks)
country: Bangladesh
setting: LMIC, phase 2 RCT
period: 2020-2021
n: 220 nOPV2 and 110 placebo
NeonateInfant <1y
novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 (nOPV2)
platform: live attenuated oral, genetically stabilised
doses: 2
vs placebo
90
proportion seroconverting (%), 2 doses
RCTZaman et al. 2023 Lancet
quote
In the nOPV2 group 196 (90%) of 217 infants seroconverted by week 8 after two doses, when 214 (99%) had seroprotective antibodies.
abstract, FINDINGS
99% had seroprotective antibodies after two doses, partly reflecting maternal antibody (most infants seroprotected at birth).
Seroconversion to poliovirus type 2 after one nOPV2 dose (surrogate)
severity: surrogate (antibody)
strain: poliovirus type 2
case definition: Type 2 neutralising antibody seroconversion, per-protocol, three production lots
infants aged 18 to under 52 weeks
country: The Gambia
setting: LMIC, phase 3 RCT
period: 2021
n: 2272 infants per protocol
Infant <1y
novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 (nOPV2)
platform: live attenuated oral, genetically stabilised
doses: 1
vs bivalent OPV arm (lot-to-lot equivalence was the primary objective)
48.9 to 49.2
proportion seroconverting (%), 1 dose (range across lots)
RCTOchoge et al. 2024 Lancet
quote
Seroconversion rates ranged from 48·9% to 49·2% across the three lots.
abstract, FINDINGS
Single-dose response is about half; two doses raised seroconversion substantially in baseline-seronegative infants (next record).
Seroconversion to poliovirus type 2 after two nOPV2 doses (surrogate)
severity: surrogate (antibody)
strain: poliovirus type 2
case definition: Type 2 seroconversion among infants seronegative at baseline
infants aged 18 to under 52 weeks, seronegative at baseline
country: The Gambia
setting: LMIC, phase 3 RCT
period: 2021
n: 167 seronegative infants
Infant <1y
novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 (nOPV2)
platform: live attenuated oral, genetically stabilised
doses: 2
vs bivalent OPV arm
85.6 (79.4–90.6)
proportion seroconverting (%), 2 doses
RCTOchoge et al. 2024 Lancet
quote
Of those seronegative at baseline, 143 (85·6%) of 167 (95% CI 79·4-90·6) infants and 54 (83·1%) of 65 (71·7-91·2) young children seroconverted over the two-dose nOPV2 schedule.
abstract, FINDINGS
Young children aged 1 to under 5 years: 83.1% (71.7-91.2) in the same sentence.
Faecal shedding of poliovirus type 1 after bOPV challenge (intestinal immunity boost)
severity: surrogate (intestinal immunity)
strain: poliovirus type 1
case definition: Any shedding at 3, 7 or 14 days after bOPV challenge given 4 weeks after study vaccine
three age groups: 6-11 months, 5 years, 10 years
country: India
setting: OPV-vaccinated population, LMIC, RCT
n: 954 participants completed
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y
inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) booster
platform: inactivated, intramuscular
doses: 1 (booster in previously OPV-vaccinated)
vs no vaccine: 14.4, 24.1 and 52.4% shedding
8.8, 9.1, and 13.5
proportion shedding (%) in IPV group by age group
RCTJafari et al. 2014 Science
quote
Any fecal shedding of poliovirus type 1 was 8.8, 9.1, and 13.5% in the IPV group and 14.4, 24.1, and 52.4% in the control group by 6- to 11-month, 5-year, and 10-year groups, respectively (IPV versus control: Fisher's exact test P < 0.001).
abstract
In people already primed by OPV, an IPV dose boosts intestinal immunity; this is distinct from the null effect of IPV alone in OPV-naive people (mucosal meta-analysis record).
Single-dose seroconversion to poliovirus type 1 (surrogate), fractional intradermal IPV
severity: surrogate (antibody)
strain: poliovirus type 1
case definition: Neutralisation assay seroconversion after one dose at 4 months
infants aged 4 months
country: Cuba
setting: middle-income, RCT
n: 310 infants
Infant <1y
fractional-dose IPV (one fifth, intradermal)
platform: inactivated, intradermal
doses: 1
vs full-dose intramuscular IPV: 46.6%, 62.8%, 32.0% for types 1, 2, 3
16.6
proportion seroconverting (%), 1 dose
RCTResik et al. 2013 N Engl J Med
quote
In the group receiving the first fractional dose of IPV, seroconversion to poliovirus types 1, 2, and 3 occurred in 16.6%, 47.1%, and 14.7% of participants, respectively, as compared with 46.6%, 62.8%, and 32.0% in the group receiving the first full dose of IPV (P<0.008 for all comparisons).
abstract, RESULTS
Priming was high for all types in both groups, and cumulative two-dose seroconversion was above ninety percent with fractional doses and near-complete with full doses.
Vaccine response to poliovirus type 1 at 22 weeks (surrogate)
severity: surrogate (antibody)
strain: poliovirus type 1
case definition: Seroconversion or four-fold rise adjusted for maternal antibody decay
infants, doses at 6 and 14 weeks
country: Bangladesh
setting: LMIC, RCT
period: 2016-2017
n: 1076 infants
Infant <1y
fractional-dose IPV (0.1 mL intradermal), two doses
platform: inactivated, intradermal
doses: 2 fractional
vs one full intramuscular IPV dose at 14 weeks: 57% (53-61)
79 (73–83)
proportion responding (%), two fractional doses
RCTSnider et al. 2019 Lancet
quote
Vaccine response at 22 weeks to two doses of fIPV (group D) was significantly higher (p<0·0001) than to one dose of IPV (groups A and B) for all three poliovirus serotypes: the type 1 response comprised 212 (79% [95% CI 73-83]) versus 305 (57% [53-61]) participants, the type 2 response comprised 173 (64% [58-70]) versus 249 (46% [42-51]) participants, and the type 3 response comprised 196 (73% [67-78]) versus 196 (36% [33-41]) participants.
abstract, FINDINGS
Two fractional doses beat one full dose for all three types (type 2: 64% vs 46%; type 3: 73% vs 36%); supports fIPV as a dose-sparing strategy.
Type 1 paralytic poliomyelitis
severity: paralysis
strain: wild poliovirus type 1
case definition: Confirmed wild poliovirus type 1 poliomyelitis vs non-polio AFP controls
children aged 0-23 months (population immunity estimate); AFP cases
country: India (Uttar Pradesh)
setting: areas of persistent transmission, high diarrhoea prevalence, LMIC
period: 2005-2006
n: 2076 matched case-control pairs
Infant <1y1-4y
monovalent type 1 OPV (mOPV1), high potency
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: per dose (supplementary immunisation)
vs non-polio acute flaccid paralysis controls, fewer doses
30 (19–41)
VE (%) per dose
case-controlGrassly et al. 2007 Lancet
quote
FINDINGS: In areas of persistent poliovirus transmission in Uttar Pradesh, the protective efficacy of mOPV1 was estimated to be 30% (95% CI 19-41) per dose against type 1 paralytic disease, compared with 11% (7-14) for the trivalent oral vaccine.
abstract, FINDINGS
Per-dose efficacy, not full-series efficacy; many doses are given in campaigns. Same sentence gives trivalent OPV at a far lower per-dose efficacy (next record).
Type 1 paralytic poliomyelitis
severity: paralysis
strain: wild poliovirus type 1
case definition: Confirmed wild poliovirus type 1 poliomyelitis vs non-polio AFP controls
children aged 0-23 months (population immunity estimate); AFP cases
country: India (Uttar Pradesh)
setting: areas of persistent transmission, high diarrhoea prevalence, LMIC
period: 2005-2006
n: 2076 matched case-control pairs
Infant <1y1-4y
trivalent OPV (tOPV)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: per dose
vs non-polio acute flaccid paralysis controls, fewer doses
11 (7–14)
VE (%) per dose
case-controlGrassly et al. 2007 Lancet
quote
FINDINGS: In areas of persistent poliovirus transmission in Uttar Pradesh, the protective efficacy of mOPV1 was estimated to be 30% (95% CI 19-41) per dose against type 1 paralytic disease, compared with 11% (7-14) for the trivalent oral vaccine.
abstract, FINDINGS
Low per-dose efficacy of tOPV in the highest-transmission setting on record; the Pink Book seroconversion figure after three tOPV doses applies to industrialised countries.
Type 1 paralytic poliomyelitis
severity: paralysis
strain: wild poliovirus type 1
case definition: Poliomyelitis cases vs matched non-polio AFP controls from national surveillance
children with acute flaccid paralysis (under 15 years)
country: Nigeria
setting: national AFP surveillance, LMIC
period: 2001-2007
n: 27,379 AFP cases in database
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y12-17y
monovalent type 1 OPV (mOPV1)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: per dose
vs matched non-polio AFP controls, fewer doses
67 (39–82)
VE (%) per dose
case-controlJenkins et al. 2008 N Engl J Med
quote
RESULTS: The estimated efficacies per dose of monovalent type 1 oral poliovirus vaccine and trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine against type 1 paralytic poliomyelitis were 67% (95% confidence interval [CI], 39 to 82) and 16% (95% CI, 10 to 21), respectively, and the estimated efficacy per dose of trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine against type 3 paralytic poliomyelitis was 18% (95% CI, 9 to 26).
abstract, RESULTS
Type 1 paralytic poliomyelitis
severity: paralysis
strain: wild poliovirus type 1
case definition: Poliomyelitis cases vs matched non-polio AFP controls from national surveillance
children with acute flaccid paralysis (under 15 years)
country: Nigeria
setting: national AFP surveillance, LMIC
period: 2001-2007
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y12-17y
trivalent OPV (tOPV)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: per dose
vs matched non-polio AFP controls, fewer doses
16 (10–21)
VE (%) per dose
case-controlJenkins et al. 2008 N Engl J Med
quote
RESULTS: The estimated efficacies per dose of monovalent type 1 oral poliovirus vaccine and trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine against type 1 paralytic poliomyelitis were 67% (95% confidence interval [CI], 39 to 82) and 16% (95% CI, 10 to 21), respectively, and the estimated efficacy per dose of trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine against type 3 paralytic poliomyelitis was 18% (95% CI, 9 to 26).
abstract, RESULTS
Type 3 paralytic poliomyelitis
severity: paralysis
strain: wild poliovirus type 3
case definition: Poliomyelitis cases vs matched non-polio AFP controls from national surveillance
children with acute flaccid paralysis (under 15 years)
country: Nigeria
setting: national AFP surveillance, LMIC
period: 2001-2007
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y12-17y
trivalent OPV (tOPV)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: per dose
vs matched non-polio AFP controls, fewer doses
18 (9–26)
VE (%) per dose
case-controlJenkins et al. 2008 N Engl J Med
quote
RESULTS: The estimated efficacies per dose of monovalent type 1 oral poliovirus vaccine and trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine against type 1 paralytic poliomyelitis were 67% (95% confidence interval [CI], 39 to 82) and 16% (95% CI, 10 to 21), respectively, and the estimated efficacy per dose of trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine against type 3 paralytic poliomyelitis was 18% (95% CI, 9 to 26).
abstract, RESULTS
Serotype 1 paralytic poliomyelitis
severity: paralysis
strain: wild poliovirus type 1
case definition: Confirmed poliomyelitis vs non-polio AFP, national surveillance, bootstrap CIs
children with AFP (immunity estimated for under 36 months)
country: Nigeria
setting: national AFP surveillance, LMIC
period: 2001-2012
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y
monovalent OPV (mOPV1)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: per dose
vs non-polio AFP controls, fewer doses
32.1 (26.1–38.1)
VE (%) per dose (median)
case-controlMangal et al. 2014 Lancet Glob Health
quote
FINDINGS: Against serotype 1, both monovalent OPV (median 32.1%, 95% CI 26.1-38.1) and bivalent OPV (29.5%, 20.1-38.4) had higher clinical efficacy than trivalent OPV (19.4%, 16.1-22.8).
abstract, FINDINGS
Lower than the earlier Nigerian mOPV1 estimate from the same surveillance system over a shorter period; efficacy was significantly lower in northern than southern states.
Serotype 1 paralytic poliomyelitis
severity: paralysis
strain: wild poliovirus type 1
case definition: Confirmed poliomyelitis vs non-polio AFP, national surveillance, bootstrap CIs
children with AFP (immunity estimated for under 36 months)
country: Nigeria
setting: national AFP surveillance, LMIC
period: 2001-2012
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y
bivalent OPV types 1 and 3 (bOPV)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: per dose
vs non-polio AFP controls, fewer doses
29.5 (20.1–38.4)
VE (%) per dose
case-controlMangal et al. 2014 Lancet Glob Health
quote
FINDINGS: Against serotype 1, both monovalent OPV (median 32.1%, 95% CI 26.1-38.1) and bivalent OPV (29.5%, 20.1-38.4) had higher clinical efficacy than trivalent OPV (19.4%, 16.1-22.8).
abstract, FINDINGS
Serotype 1 paralytic poliomyelitis
severity: paralysis
strain: wild poliovirus type 1
case definition: Confirmed poliomyelitis vs non-polio AFP, national surveillance, bootstrap CIs
children with AFP (immunity estimated for under 36 months)
country: Nigeria
setting: national AFP surveillance, LMIC
period: 2001-2012
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y
trivalent OPV (tOPV)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: per dose
vs non-polio AFP controls, fewer doses
19.4 (16.1–22.8)
VE (%) per dose
case-controlMangal et al. 2014 Lancet Glob Health
quote
FINDINGS: Against serotype 1, both monovalent OPV (median 32.1%, 95% CI 26.1-38.1) and bivalent OPV (29.5%, 20.1-38.4) had higher clinical efficacy than trivalent OPV (19.4%, 16.1-22.8).
abstract, FINDINGS
Serotype 3 paralytic poliomyelitis
severity: paralysis
strain: wild poliovirus type 3
case definition: Confirmed poliomyelitis vs non-polio AFP, national surveillance, bootstrap CIs
children with AFP (immunity estimated for under 36 months)
country: Nigeria
setting: national AFP surveillance, LMIC
period: 2001-2012
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y
monovalent OPV type 3 (mOPV3)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: per dose
vs non-polio AFP controls, fewer doses
43.2 (23.1–61.1)
VE (%) per dose
case-controlMangal et al. 2014 Lancet Glob Health
quote
Corresponding data for serotype 3 were 43.2% (23.1-61.1) and 23.8% (5.3-44.9) compared with 18.0% (14.1-22.1).
abstract, FINDINGS
Same sentence gives bOPV and tOPV against serotype 3 (next two records).
Serotype 3 paralytic poliomyelitis
severity: paralysis
strain: wild poliovirus type 3
case definition: Confirmed poliomyelitis vs non-polio AFP, national surveillance, bootstrap CIs
children with AFP (immunity estimated for under 36 months)
country: Nigeria
setting: national AFP surveillance, LMIC
period: 2001-2012
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y
bivalent OPV types 1 and 3 (bOPV)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: per dose
vs non-polio AFP controls, fewer doses
23.8 (5.3–44.9)
VE (%) per dose
case-controlMangal et al. 2014 Lancet Glob Health
quote
Corresponding data for serotype 3 were 43.2% (23.1-61.1) and 23.8% (5.3-44.9) compared with 18.0% (14.1-22.1).
abstract, FINDINGS
Serotype 3 paralytic poliomyelitis
severity: paralysis
strain: wild poliovirus type 3
case definition: Confirmed poliomyelitis vs non-polio AFP, national surveillance, bootstrap CIs
children with AFP (immunity estimated for under 36 months)
country: Nigeria
setting: national AFP surveillance, LMIC
period: 2001-2012
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y
trivalent OPV (tOPV)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: per dose
vs non-polio AFP controls, fewer doses
18.0 (14.1–22.1)
VE (%) per dose
case-controlMangal et al. 2014 Lancet Glob Health
quote
Corresponding data for serotype 3 were 43.2% (23.1-61.1) and 23.8% (5.3-44.9) compared with 18.0% (14.1-22.1).
abstract, FINDINGS
Serotype 1 paralytic poliomyelitis
severity: paralysis
strain: wild poliovirus type 1
case definition: Poliomyelitis vs other-cause AFP, conditional logistic regression
children aged 0-14 years
country: Pakistan and Afghanistan
setting: national AFP surveillance, LMIC, conflict-affected areas
period: 2001-2011
n: 46,977 AFP cases in database; 883 serotype 1 cases
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y12-17y
trivalent OPV (tOPV)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: per dose
vs children with AFP from other causes, fewer doses
12.5 (5.6–18.8)
VE (%) per dose
case-controlO'Reilly et al. 2012 Lancet
quote
The estimated clinical effectiveness of a dose of trivalent OPV against serotype 1 poliomyelitis was 12·5% (95% CI 5·6-18·8) compared with 34·5% (16·1-48·9) for monovalent OPV (p=0·007) and 23·4% (10·4-34·6) for bivalent OPV (p=0·067).
abstract, FINDINGS
Same sentence gives mOPV and bOPV per dose (next two records); bOPV was non-inferior to mOPV.
Serotype 1 paralytic poliomyelitis
severity: paralysis
strain: wild poliovirus type 1
case definition: Poliomyelitis vs other-cause AFP, conditional logistic regression
children aged 0-14 years
country: Pakistan and Afghanistan
setting: national AFP surveillance, LMIC, conflict-affected areas
period: 2001-2011
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y12-17y
monovalent OPV type 1 (mOPV1)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: per dose
vs children with AFP from other causes, fewer doses
34.5 (16.1–48.9)
VE (%) per dose
case-controlO'Reilly et al. 2012 Lancet
quote
The estimated clinical effectiveness of a dose of trivalent OPV against serotype 1 poliomyelitis was 12·5% (95% CI 5·6-18·8) compared with 34·5% (16·1-48·9) for monovalent OPV (p=0·007) and 23·4% (10·4-34·6) for bivalent OPV (p=0·067).
abstract, FINDINGS
Serotype 1 paralytic poliomyelitis
severity: paralysis
strain: wild poliovirus type 1
case definition: Poliomyelitis vs other-cause AFP, conditional logistic regression
children aged 0-14 years
country: Pakistan and Afghanistan
setting: national AFP surveillance, LMIC, conflict-affected areas
period: 2001-2011
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y12-17y
bivalent OPV types 1 and 3 (bOPV)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: per dose
vs children with AFP from other causes, fewer doses
23.4 (10.4–34.6)
VE (%) per dose
case-controlO'Reilly et al. 2012 Lancet
quote
The estimated clinical effectiveness of a dose of trivalent OPV against serotype 1 poliomyelitis was 12·5% (95% CI 5·6-18·8) compared with 34·5% (16·1-48·9) for monovalent OPV (p=0·007) and 23·4% (10·4-34·6) for bivalent OPV (p=0·067).
abstract, FINDINGS
Acute paralytic poliomyelitis
severity: paralysis
case definition: Hospitalised clinical paralytic polio, 60% stool-culture confirmed, vs outpatient controls
children aged 6-35 months
country: India (Madras)
setting: urban hospital-based, LMIC
period: 1988-1989
n: 78 cases and 315 controls
Infant <1y1-4y
trivalent OPV (tOPV)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: 3
vs unvaccinated or fewer than 3 doses, age- and sex-matched outpatient controls
81 (58–91)
VE (%)
case-controlDeivanayagam et al. 1993 Bull World Health Organ
quote
Vaccine efficacy observed for TOPV3 was 81% (95% CI, 58-91%) for the 6-35-month age group and 86% (95% CI, 67-94%) for the 6-23-month age group.
abstract
Same sentence gives a higher figure in the youngest age group and an age-adjusted estimate (next record). Full-series efficacy is far higher than the per-dose figures from Uttar Pradesh and Nigeria, but still well below the near-complete protection seen in industrialised countries.
Acute paralytic poliomyelitis
severity: paralysis
case definition: Hospitalised clinical paralytic polio, 60% stool-culture confirmed, vs outpatient controls
children aged 6-35 months
country: India (Madras)
setting: urban hospital-based, LMIC
period: 1988-1989
n: 78 cases and 315 controls
Infant <1y1-4y
trivalent OPV (tOPV)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: 3
vs unvaccinated or fewer than 3 doses, matched outpatient controls
83 (67–91)
VE (%), age-adjusted (Mantel-Haenszel)
case-controlDeivanayagam et al. 1993 Bull World Health Organ
quote
Vaccine efficacy, after controlling for age using the Mantel-Haenszel method, was 83% (95% CI, 67-91%).
abstract
Paralytic poliomyelitis (type 1 epidemic)
severity: paralysis
strain: wild poliovirus type 1
case definition: Physician-diagnosed paralytic polio in the 1986 epidemic vs neighbourhood controls
children aged 1-7 years
country: The Gambia
setting: nationwide epidemic, LMIC
period: 1986
n: 195 cases and 839 controls
1-4y5-11y
trivalent OPV (tOPV)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: 3 or more
vs zero doses (children without cards counted as unvaccinated)
72 (57–82)
VE (%)
case-controlDeming et al. 1992 Am J Epidemiol
quote
In a matched analysis of 195 cases and 839 controls, the efficacy of three or more doses of trivalent oral polio vaccine was 72% (95% confidence interval 57-82) when children without vaccination cards were considered unvaccinated.
abstract
Counting card-less children as unvaccinated biases VE downward if some were vaccinated; the youngest subgroup with better records gave a higher figure (next record).
Paralytic poliomyelitis (type 1 epidemic)
severity: paralysis
strain: wild poliovirus type 1
case definition: Physician-diagnosed paralytic polio in the 1986 epidemic vs neighbourhood controls
children aged 1-2 years
country: The Gambia
setting: nationwide epidemic, LMIC
period: 1986
1-4y
trivalent OPV (tOPV)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: 3 or more
vs zero doses, neighbourhood controls matched on age and sex
81 (66–90)
VE (%)
case-controlDeming et al. 1992 Am J Epidemiol
quote
The efficacy of three or more doses in 1- to 2-year-old children, in whom the determination of vaccination status was considered to be more accurate than in older children, was 81% (95% confidence interval 66-90).
abstract
Vaccine failure (paralytic polio despite 3 documented OPV doses)
severity: paralysis
strain: wild poliovirus type 1
case definition: Poliomyelitis cases with three card-documented doses vs controls with three documented doses
children aged 1-7 years
country: The Gambia
setting: nationwide, LMIC
period: 1986 epidemic
n: 46 cases and 260 controls
1-4y5-11y
trivalent OPV (tOPV)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: 3 (season of administration compared)
vs fully vaccinated controls whose doses were given in the dry season
1.7 (1.05–2.9)
OR for vaccine failure per additional dose given in the rainy season
case-controlDeming et al. 1997 J Infect Dis
quote
Children with poliomyelitis were more likely to have received doses in the rainy season (odds ratio describing the linear trend of each additional dose in the rainy season, 1.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-2.9).
abstract
Season of OPV administration (a proxy for concurrent enteric infection) modifies protection; see the enteric-infection meta-analysis record for seroconversion.
Paralytic poliomyelitis (type 1 outbreak)
severity: paralysis
strain: wild poliovirus type 1
case definition: Case-patients vs age-matched controls in the 1988-1989 outbreak
children (incidence highest under 2 years)
country: Oman
setting: outbreak, middle-income Gulf state
period: 1988-1989
n: 70 case-patients and 692 controls
Infant <1y1-4y
trivalent OPV (tOPV)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: 3
vs unvaccinated age-matched controls
91
VE (%)
case-controlSutter et al. 1991 Lancet
quote
3 doses of OPV reduced the risk of paralysis by 91%; vaccine failures could not be explained by failures in the cold chain nor on suboptimum vaccine potency.
abstract
No CI in the abstract. Vaccine failures were not explained by cold-chain or potency problems; delay in completing the series until 7 months and widespread infection among fully vaccinated children sustained the outbreak.
Paralytic poliomyelitis (WPV1 outbreak)
severity: paralysis
strain: wild poliovirus type 1
case definition: AFP with virological confirmation of WPV1 vs non-polio AFP controls
children with AFP
country: Somalia
setting: outbreak, LMIC, conflict-affected
period: 2013
n: 99 cases and 99 NPAFP controls
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y
oral polio vaccine (OPV, trivalent and bivalent campaign doses)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: any (1 or more)
vs unvaccinated, non-polio AFP controls matched on age, onset date and region
70 (37–86)
VE (%), any OPV
case-controlMahamud et al. 2014 J Infect Dis
quote
Using NPAFP controls, the overall VE was 70% (95% confidence interval [CI], 37-86), 59% (2-83) among 1-3 dose recipients, 77% (95% CI, 46-91) among ≥4 dose recipients.
abstract, RESULT
Same sentence gives dose-stratified estimates (next two records). Neighbourhood controls gave much higher VE, a reminder that the control group drives polio VE estimates.
Paralytic poliomyelitis (WPV1 outbreak)
severity: paralysis
strain: wild poliovirus type 1
case definition: AFP with virological confirmation of WPV1 vs non-polio AFP controls
children with AFP
country: Somalia
setting: outbreak, LMIC, conflict-affected
period: 2013
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y
oral polio vaccine (OPV)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: 1-3
vs unvaccinated, non-polio AFP controls
59 (2–83)
VE (%)
case-controlMahamud et al. 2014 J Infect Dis
quote
Using NPAFP controls, the overall VE was 70% (95% confidence interval [CI], 37-86), 59% (2-83) among 1-3 dose recipients, 77% (95% CI, 46-91) among ≥4 dose recipients.
abstract, RESULT
Paralytic poliomyelitis (WPV1 outbreak)
severity: paralysis
strain: wild poliovirus type 1
case definition: AFP with virological confirmation of WPV1 vs non-polio AFP controls
children with AFP
country: Somalia
setting: outbreak, LMIC, conflict-affected
period: 2013
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y
oral polio vaccine (OPV)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: 4 or more
vs unvaccinated, non-polio AFP controls
77 (46–91)
VE (%)
case-controlMahamud et al. 2014 J Infect Dis
quote
Using NPAFP controls, the overall VE was 70% (95% confidence interval [CI], 37-86), 59% (2-83) among 1-3 dose recipients, 77% (95% CI, 46-91) among ≥4 dose recipients.
abstract, RESULT
Paralytic poliomyelitis (WPV1 outbreak)
severity: paralysis
strain: wild poliovirus type 1
case definition: AFP with virological confirmation of WPV1 vs asymptomatic neighbourhood controls
children
country: Somalia
setting: outbreak, LMIC, conflict-affected
period: 2013
n: 134 cases and 268 neighbourhood controls
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y
oral polio vaccine (OPV)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: any (1 or more)
vs unvaccinated, asymptomatic neighbourhood controls matched on age
95 (84–98)
VE (%), any OPV
case-controlMahamud et al. 2014 J Infect Dis
quote
In neighborhood controls, the overall VE was 95% (95% CI, 84-98), 92% (72-98) among 1-3 dose recipients, and 97% (89-99) among ≥4 dose recipients.
abstract, RESULT
Same sentence gives dose-stratified estimates. Neighbourhood controls can overstate VE if vaccination correlates with lower exposure; NPAFP controls may understate it.
Paralytic poliomyelitis (WPV1 outbreak)
severity: paralysis
strain: wild poliovirus type 1
case definition: AFP with virological confirmation of WPV1, restricted to children 24 months and under
children 24 months and younger
country: Somalia
setting: outbreak, LMIC, conflict-affected
period: 2013
Infant <1y1-4y
oral polio vaccine (OPV)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: any (1 or more)
vs unvaccinated non-polio AFP controls (neighbourhood controls gave 97%, 76-100)
95 (65–99)
VE (%), any OPV, NPAFP controls
case-controlMahamud et al. 2014 J Infect Dis
quote
When the analysis was limited to cases and controls ≤24 months old, the overall VE in NPAFP and neighborhood controls was 95% (95% CI, 65-99) and 97% (95% CI, 76-100), respectively.
abstract, RESULT
Paralytic poliomyelitis (lameness survey)
severity: paralysis
case definition: Paralytic polio in the previous 12 months identified by community survey vs age-matched controls in the same block
children under five
country: India (North Arcot District, rural)
setting: rural community, LMIC
period: 1988
n: 67 cases
Infant <1y1-4y
trivalent OPV (tOPV)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: 3
vs zero doses, children matched on exact age in months
62
VE (%)
case-controlBalraj et al. 1990 Int J Epidemiol
quote
In a case-control analysis, the vaccine efficacy (VE) was 62% for all under-fives; for the 12-23 months age group it was 71.4%.
abstract
Same sentence gives a higher figure for the second year of life. No CI in the abstract. The authors call this disappointingly low for a vaccine they consider capable of near-complete protection.
Paralytic poliomyelitis with residual paralysis
severity: paralysis
case definition: Confirmed poliomyelitis with residual paralysis in the 1986-87 Senegal outbreak vs up to 5 matched controls
children (outbreak cases)
country: Senegal (Kolda region)
setting: outbreak, LMIC
period: 1986-1987
n: 89 cases
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y
enhanced-potency inactivated poliovirus vaccine (N-IPV)
platform: inactivated, intramuscular
doses: 1
vs unvaccinated matched controls
36 (0–67)
VE (%)
case-controlRobertson et al. 1988 Lancet
quote
The clinical efficacy for one dose of N-IPV was 36% (95% confidence interval 0%, 67%) and for two doses was 89% (95% CI 62%, 97%).
abstract
Same sentence gives the two-dose figure (next record). The only field efficacy estimate for enhanced IPV against paralysis in a tropical LMIC setting; wide CIs.
Paralytic poliomyelitis with residual paralysis
severity: paralysis
case definition: Confirmed poliomyelitis with residual paralysis in the 1986-87 Senegal outbreak vs up to 5 matched controls
children (outbreak cases)
country: Senegal (Kolda region)
setting: outbreak, LMIC
period: 1986-1987
n: 89 cases
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y
enhanced-potency inactivated poliovirus vaccine (N-IPV)
platform: inactivated, intramuscular
doses: 2
vs unvaccinated matched controls
89 (62–97)
VE (%)
case-controlRobertson et al. 1988 Lancet
quote
The clinical efficacy for one dose of N-IPV was 36% (95% confidence interval 0%, 67%) and for two doses was 89% (95% CI 62%, 97%).
abstract
cVDPV2 paralytic poliomyelitis
severity: paralysis
strain: cVDPV2
case definition: Verified cVDPV2 poliomyelitis vs cVDPV2-negative AFP cases matched on age, onset and location (test-negative design)
children younger than 60 months born after May 2016
country: Nigeria
setting: outbreak response campaigns, LMIC
period: 2017-2022
n: 363 cases and 1303 test-negative controls
Infant <1y1-4y
novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 (nOPV2)
platform: live attenuated oral, genetically stabilised
doses: per campaign dose
vs test-negative AFP controls, fewer doses
12 (-2–25)
VE (%) per dose
test-negativeCooper et al. 2024 Lancet Infect Dis
quote
We found low per-dose effectiveness of nOPV2 (12%, 95% CI -2 to 25) and mOPV2 (17%, 3 to 29), but no significant difference between the two vaccines (p=0·67).
abstract, FINDINGS
Per-dose effectiveness is low for both nOPV2 and mOPV2 (next record) with no significant difference between them. Dose histories are caregiver-reported, which biases per-dose estimates toward the null.
cVDPV2 paralytic poliomyelitis
severity: paralysis
strain: cVDPV2
case definition: Verified cVDPV2 poliomyelitis vs cVDPV2-negative AFP cases (test-negative design)
children younger than 60 months born after May 2016
country: Nigeria
setting: outbreak response campaigns, LMIC
period: 2017-2022
Infant <1y1-4y
monovalent Sabin type 2 OPV (mOPV2)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: per campaign dose
vs test-negative AFP controls, fewer doses
17 (3–29)
VE (%) per dose
test-negativeCooper et al. 2024 Lancet Infect Dis
quote
We found low per-dose effectiveness of nOPV2 (12%, 95% CI -2 to 25) and mOPV2 (17%, 3 to 29), but no significant difference between the two vaccines (p=0·67).
abstract, FINDINGS
cVDPV2 paralytic poliomyelitis
severity: paralysis
strain: cVDPV2
case definition: Verified cVDPV2 poliomyelitis vs cVDPV2-negative AFP cases (test-negative design)
children younger than 60 months born after May 2016
country: Nigeria
setting: routine immunisation, LMIC
period: 2017-2022
Infant <1y1-4y
inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV)
platform: inactivated, intramuscular
doses: 1
vs no IPV, test-negative AFP controls
43 (23–58)
VE (%)
test-negativeCooper et al. 2024 Lancet Infect Dis
quote
The estimated effectiveness of one IPV dose was 43% (23 to 58).
abstract, FINDINGS
With community controls the same study gave a much higher estimate for one IPV dose (next record).
cVDPV2 paralytic poliomyelitis
severity: paralysis
strain: cVDPV2
case definition: Verified cVDPV2 poliomyelitis vs age-matched community controls from the same settlement (prospective)
children younger than 60 months
country: Nigeria
setting: prospective community-control study, LMIC
period: March 2021-December 2022
n: 181 cases and 1557 community controls
Infant <1y1-4y
inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV)
platform: inactivated, intramuscular
doses: 1
vs no IPV, age-matched community controls
89 (83–93)
VE (%)
case-controlCooper et al. 2024 Lancet Infect Dis
quote
Using community controls, we found a high effectiveness of IPV (89%, 95% CI 83 to 93, for one dose), a low per-dose effectiveness of nOPV2 (-23%, -45 to -5) and mOPV2 (1%, -23 to 20), and no significant difference between the per-dose effectiveness of nOPV2 and mOPV2 (p=0·12).
abstract, FINDINGS
cVDPV2 paralytic poliomyelitis
severity: paralysis
strain: cVDPV2
case definition: Verified cVDPV2 poliomyelitis vs age-matched community controls (prospective)
children younger than 60 months
country: Nigeria
setting: prospective community-control study, LMIC
period: March 2021-December 2022
Infant <1y1-4y
novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 (nOPV2)
platform: live attenuated oral, genetically stabilised
doses: per campaign dose
vs community controls, fewer doses
-23 (-45–-5)
VE (%) per dose
case-controlCooper et al. 2024 Lancet Infect Dis
quote
Using community controls, we found a high effectiveness of IPV (89%, 95% CI 83 to 93, for one dose), a low per-dose effectiveness of nOPV2 (-23%, -45 to -5) and mOPV2 (1%, -23 to 20), and no significant difference between the per-dose effectiveness of nOPV2 and mOPV2 (p=0·12).
abstract, FINDINGS
Negative point estimate. Same sentence gives mOPV2 near zero, no significant difference. The authors attribute low per-dose OPV2 estimates to recall and reporting of campaign doses and to campaigns targeting high-risk areas; the finding is included unselected, as the rules require, and flagged.
Population seroprevalence of poliovirus antibody (surrogate of population immunity)
severity: surrogate (antibody)
strain: poliovirus type 1
case definition: Serum neutralising antibody in NHANES 2009-2010
US population across age groups
country: United States
setting: national survey, IPV-only schedule since 2000
period: 2009-2010
All ages
routine polio vaccination (IPV-only since 2000; OPV in earlier cohorts)
platform: mixed
doses: as per routine schedule
vs none (population survey)
93.9
seroprevalence (%)
surveillanceWallace et al. 2016 BMC Public Health
quote
RESULTS: The overall seroprevalence to poliovirus was 93.9 % for type 1, 97.0 % for type 2, and 83.1 % for type 3.
abstract, RESULTS
Type 2: 97.0%, type 3: 83.1%. The lower type 3 figure is the recognised weak point of population immunity in IPV-only countries.
Reduction in the population susceptible to cVDPV2 per campaign
severity: transmission (population-level)
strain: cVDPV2
case definition: Bayesian time-series SIR model fitted to cVDPV2 case data
children targeted by campaigns (under 5)
country: Nigeria
setting: outbreak response campaigns, LMIC
period: 2021 onward
Infant <1y1-4y
novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 (nOPV2)
platform: live attenuated oral, genetically stabilised
doses: per campaign
vs mOPV2 campaigns (38%, 20-51; relative effect 1.1, 0.7-1.9)
42 (28–54)
reduction in susceptible population per campaign (%)
modellingVoorman et al. 2024 J Infect Dis
quote
RESULTS: We found that both nOPV2 and mOPV2 campaigns were highly effective in reducing transmission of cVDPV2, on average reducing the susceptible population by 42% (95% confidence interval, 28-54%) and 38% (20-51%) per campaign, respectively, which were indistinguishable from each other in this analysis (relative effect, 1.1 [.7-1.9]).
abstract, RESULTS
Model-based population impact, not individual VE. Impact varied across areas and campaigns.

Vaccine safety and adverse events

Harms measured after vaccination against an unvaccinated or baseline comparator. Kept separate from post-acute sequelae, which follow the disease, not the vaccine.

Outcome (O)Population (P)Intervention / comparatorEstimateDesign (S)Source
Vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis (VAPP)
severity: paralysis
case definition: VAPP cases per birth cohort, pooled from published risk estimates
birth cohorts (recipients and contacts)
country: multiple
setting: literature review, bootstrap global estimate
period: studies to 2014
All ages
oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: any
vs births in OPV-using populations (no unvaccinated comparator)
4.7 (2.4–9.7)
VAPP cases per million births
systematic reviewPlatt et al. 2014 J Infect Dis
quote
Using all risk estimates, VAPP risk was 4.7 cases per million births (range, 2.4-9.7), leading to a global annual burden estimate of 498 cases (range, 255-1018).
abstract, RESULTS
The bounds are a range across risk estimates, not a confidence interval. The same abstract gives a global annual case burden and a lower rate restricted to countries still using OPV. In the low-income country most cases occurred after more than 3 doses, in middle- and high-income countries mostly after the first dose or in unvaccinated contacts.
Vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis (VAPP)
severity: paralysis
case definition: VAPP cases in nationwide before-after and interrupted time series studies
infants and children on national schedules
country: multiple
setting: nationwide programmes
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y
sequential schedule: IPV followed by OPV
platform: inactivated then live attenuated oral
doses: 1 or more IPV then OPV
vs OPV-only schedule
54 to 100
reduction in VAPP cases (%) range
systematic review
GRADE: low
3 nationwide studies
Ciapponi et al. 2019 Cochrane Database Syst Rev
quote
IPV-OPV versus OPV It is uncertain if an IPV followed by OPV schedule is better than OPV alone at reducing the number of WPV cases (very low-certainty evidence); however, it may reduce VAPP cases by 54% to 100% (three nationwide studies; low-certainty evidence).
abstract, MAIN RESULTS (IPV-OPV versus OPV)
Low-certainty evidence from non-randomised national data. Effect on wild poliovirus cases was uncertain (very low certainty); serious adverse events did not differ.
VAPP among people with immunodeficiency-associated vaccine-derived poliovirus infection
severity: paralysis
case definition: Published iVDPV cases in primary immunodeficiency, systematic review to 2016
all ages (mostly children with primary immunodeficiency)
immune status: primary immunodeficiency
country: multiple (mostly higher-income, high-coverage countries)
setting: case reports and series
period: over 5 decades to 2016
n: 107 iVDPV cases
All ages
oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: any
vs none (proportion within iVDPV cases)
69.81
proportion of iVDPV cases with VAPP (%)
systematic reviewShaghaghi et al. 2018 Vaccine
quote
74 (69.81%) patients developed VAPP.
abstract
Denominator is identified iVDPV cases, a highly selected group; it is not a risk per immunodeficient vaccinee. Combined immunodeficiency had lower VAPP rates than humoral immunodeficiency.
Severe adverse events after nOPV2
severity: severe adverse event
case definition: Severe adverse events in RCTs and a cohort of under-immunised children
children under 18 years
country: Bangladesh, The Gambia, Dominican Republic
setting: LMIC trials
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y12-17y
novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 (nOPV2)
platform: live attenuated oral, genetically stabilised
doses: 1-2
vs none (single-arm Bayesian pooling)
0.01 (0.00–0.02)
pooled proportion with severe adverse events
meta-analysis
5 studies (4 RCTs, 1 cohort), 10,421 children
Boene et al. 2026 BMC Infect Dis
quote
Severe adverse events after nOPV2 vaccination yielded a pooled proportion of 0.01 (95% CI: 0.00-0.02), mild events occurred in 7.8%, and viral shedding was 64.7%.
abstract, RESULTS
Single-arm pooled proportion, not a comparison with placebo; mild events 7.8%, viral shedding 64.7%.
Local reactions after enhanced-potency IPV
severity: mild and transient
case definition: Induration, pain, erythema within 48 hours in pre-licensure trials
pre-licensure trial participants (infants and children)
country: United States
setting: pre-licensure trials
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y
enhanced-potency inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV)
platform: inactivated, intramuscular
doses: per dose
vs none (single-arm pre-licensure reporting)
18
proportion with induration (%)
expert bodycdc.gov
quote
Participants reported induration (18%), pain (13%), and erythema (3.2%) within 48 hours after vaccination.
Vaccine Safety
Pain 13%, erythema 3.2%. CDC: IPV does not contain live virus, so it cannot cause VAPP.
Solicited adverse events after nOPV2 in newborns
severity: mild or moderate
case definition: Solicited adverse events recorded at daily home visits for 7 days after each dose
newborns (0-3 days and 4 weeks)
country: Bangladesh
setting: LMIC, phase 2 RCT
period: 2020-2021
n: 220 nOPV2 and 110 placebo
NeonateInfant <1y
novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 (nOPV2)
platform: live attenuated oral, genetically stabilised
doses: 2
vs placebo (71%)
70
proportion with solicited adverse events (%)
RCTZaman et al. 2023 Lancet
quote
FINDINGS: Between Sept 21, 2020, and Aug 16, 2021, we screened 334 newborn infants, of whom three (<1%) were found to be ineligible and one (<1%) was withdrawn by the parents; the remaining 330 (99%) infants were assigned to receive nOPV2 (n=220 [67%]) or placebo (n=110 [33%]). nOPV2 was well tolerated; 154 (70%) of 220 newborn infants in the nOPV2 group and 78 (71%) of 110 in the placebo group had solicited adverse events, which were all mild or moderate in severity.
abstract, FINDINGS
No difference from placebo; all events mild or moderate. Severe unsolicited events 5% in each group, judged unrelated.
Vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis (VAPP)
severity: paralysis
case definition: Paralytic polio caused by Sabin vaccine strains in recipients or contacts
all ages (recipients and contacts)
country: United States
setting: national surveillance
period: OPV era to 1999
All ages
trivalent OPV (tOPV)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: any
vs doses administered (no unvaccinated comparator; VAPP cannot occur without OPV)
2 to 3 million
tOPV doses administered per VAPP case (one case per N doses)
surveillancecdc.gov
quote
However, one case of VAPP occurred for every 2 to 3 million doses of tOPV vaccine administered.
Secular Trends / Vaccine Safety
This is why the US moved to an IPV-only schedule: once wild polio was gone, VAPP was the only remaining paralytic polio (burden record). IPV cannot cause VAPP.
Vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis (VAPP), first dose vs later doses
severity: paralysis
case definition: VAPP in recipients
infants and children
country: United States
setting: national surveillance
period: OPV era
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y
oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: 1 vs subsequent
vs subsequent OPV doses
7 to 21
relative risk, first dose vs any other dose
surveillancecdc.gov
quote
The risk of VAPP is 7 to 21 times higher for the first dose than for any other dose in the series.
Vaccine Safety
The first-dose concentration of risk is the rationale for sequential IPV-then-OPV schedules (Cochrane record).
Vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis (VAPP) in immunodeficiency
severity: paralysis
case definition: VAPP in persons with B-lymphocyte disorders (agammaglobulinaemia, hypogammaglobulinaemia)
all ages
immune status: B-lymphocyte immunodeficiency
country: United States
setting: national surveillance
period: OPV era
All ages
oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: any
vs immunocompetent OPV recipients
7,000
relative risk vs immunocompetent recipients
surveillancecdc.gov
quote
VAPP is more likely to occur in persons age 18 years or older than in children, and it is almost 7,000 times higher for persons with certain types of immunodeficiencies, particularly B-lymphocyte disorders (e.g., agammaglobulinemia and hypogammaglobulinemia), which reduce the synthesis of immune globulins.
Vaccine Safety
OPV is contraindicated in immunodeficiency; such patients can also become chronic excretors of immunodeficiency-associated VDPV (iVDPV record).
Vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis (VAPP)
severity: paralysis
case definition: VAPP identified from AFP surveillance
all ages (recipients and contacts)
country: Latin America
setting: AFP surveillance during mass campaigns plus routine delivery
period: 1989-1991
n: 6043 AFP cases analysed
All ages
oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: any (routine plus campaign)
vs doses administered; compared in the same sentence with England and Wales (1 per 1.4 million doses, 1985-91) and the USA (1 per 2.5 million net doses, 1980-89)
1.5-2.2 million
OPV doses administered per VAPP case (one case per N doses)
surveillanceAndrus et al. 1995 Bull World Health Organ
quote
The overall risk was estimated to be one case per 1.5-2.2 million doses of OPV administered, compared with one case per 1.4 million doses administered in England and Wales (1985-91) and with one case per 2.5 million net doses distributed in the USA (1980-89).
abstract
Mass campaigns did not appear to alter VAPP risk per dose.
Recipient vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis (VAPP)
severity: paralysis
case definition: AFP with residual paralysis at 60 days, vaccine-strain poliovirus isolated, onset 4-40 days after OPV
newborn cohorts (recipients)
country: Latin America and the Caribbean
setting: AFP surveillance, post-elimination era
period: 1992-2011
n: 40,926 AFP cases reviewed; 72 recipient VAPP cases
Infant <1y1-4y
oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: any
vs newborn cohorts in OPV-using countries
1 per 3.15 million (2.56–4.10)
recipient VAPP cases per million newborns
surveillanceLandaverde et al. 2014 J Infect Dis
quote
The estimated risk of recipient VAPP was 1 case per 3.15 million newborns (95% confidence interval [CI], 1 case per 2.56-4.10 million newborns), and the estimated overall risk was 1 case per 1.19 million newborns (95% CI, 1 case per 1.04-1.39 million newborns).
abstract
CI bounds are the 95% CI on the denominator (1 per 2.56-4.10 million). Overall risk including non-recipient cases: 1 per 1.19 million newborns (1.04-1.39). Lower than earlier estimates.
Vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis (VAPP)
severity: paralysis
case definition: AFP with onset 1999, residual weakness at 60 days and vaccine-related poliovirus isolated
children under 15 (AFP surveillance)
country: India
setting: national AFP surveillance with intensive campaign use
period: 1999
n: 181 AFP cases meeting the definition
Infant <1y1-4y5-11y12-17y
oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV)
platform: live attenuated oral
doses: any
vs doses administered
1 per 4.1 to 4.6 million
VAPP cases per OPV doses administered
surveillanceKohler et al. 2002 Bull World Health Organ
quote
The following estimates of VAPP risk were made: overall risk, 1 case per 4.1 to 4.6 million OPV doses administered; recipient risk,1 case per 12.2 million; first-dose recipient risk, 1 case per 2.8 million; and subsequent-dose recipient risk, 1 case per 13.9 million.
abstract, FINDINGS
Same sentence: recipient risk 1 per 12.2 million doses, first-dose recipient risk 1 per 2.8 million, subsequent-dose risk 1 per 13.9 million. Per-dose risk falls in settings with many campaign doses because later doses carry little risk.

Post-polio syndrome Poliovirus (late sequela of paralytic poliomyelitis)

Post-acute and long-term sequelae

What can follow the acute illness: chronic disease, disability, cancers, congenital syndromes, post-infectious conditions.

Outcome (O)Population (P)ComparatorEstimateDesign (S)Source
Post-polio syndrome (new muscle pain, new weakness or paralysis)
severity: chronic disability
case definition: New muscle pain and exacerbation of weakness or new weakness 15 to 40 years after childhood paralytic polio
persons who had paralytic polio in childhood, assessed in adulthood
prior infection: paralytic poliomyelitis in childhood
vaccination status: not reported
country: United States
setting: expert summary
period: not stated
18-49y50-64y65+
vs none (proportion among survivors; no uninfected comparison group)25 to 40
proportion of paralytic polio survivors (%)
per survivor of childhood paralytic polio
follow-up: 15 to 40 years after acute illness
expert bodycdc.gov
quote
After an interval of 15 to 40 years, 25% to 40% of persons who contracted paralytic poliomyelitis in childhood experience new muscle pain and exacerbation of existing weakness or develop new weakness or paralysis.
Clinical Features
Range quoted by CDC; cohort estimates below vary widely depending on criteria and population. No controlled comparison with an uninfected group, so attribution rests on the clinical definition.
Post-polio syndrome
severity: chronic neuromuscular symptoms
case definition: Validated questionnaire (muscle weakness, pain, unaccustomed fatigue) in a population-based cohort of former paralytic polio patients
adults surveyed decades after acute polio
prior infection: paralytic poliomyelitis
vaccination status: not reported
country: United States (Allegheny County, Pennsylvania)
setting: community, population-based cohort
period: surveyed around 1990
18-49y50-64y65+
vs none (prevalence within survivors; no uninfected controls)28.5 (24.4–32.6)
prevalence among paralytic cases (%)
per paralytic polio survivor
follow-up: 30-40 years after acute illness
cohortRamlow et al. 1992 Am J Epidemiol
quote
The prevalence of the post-polio syndrome was 28.5% of all paralytic cases (95% confidence interval 24.4-32.6).
abstract
Risk higher with substantial permanent impairment and in females; incidence peaked three decades after the acute illness (next record). Self-report questionnaire validated by clinical examination in a subset of the cohort.
Timing of post-polio syndrome onset
severity: chronic neuromuscular symptoms
case definition: Interval from acute poliomyelitis to onset of post-polio syndrome
adults surveyed decades after acute polio
prior infection: paralytic poliomyelitis
vaccination status: not reported
country: United States (Allegheny County, Pennsylvania)
setting: community, population-based cohort
period: surveyed around 1990
18-49y50-64y65+
vs none30-34
interval after acute illness at which incidence peaks (years)
per paralytic polio survivor
cohortRamlow et al. 1992 Am J Epidemiol
quote
The strongest determinant of post-polio syndrome onset was the length of the interval following the acute illness, with incidence peaking at 30-34 years.
abstract
Post-polio syndrome
severity: chronic neuromuscular symptoms
case definition: Specified diagnostic criteria, structured questionnaire plus neurologic examination
adults admitted for polio as children in 1945-1960
prior infection: paediatric hospital admission for poliomyelitis
vaccination status: not reported
country: Italy (Palermo)
setting: hospital-ascertained cohort
period: polio 1945-1960, surveyed about 2005
18-49y50-64y65+
vs none (prevalence within survivors)31.0
prevalence among polio survivors (%)
per polio survivor
cohortRagonese et al. 2005 J Neurol Sci
quote
RESULTS: Forty-eight participants met the adopted diagnostic criteria for PPS, giving a prevalence of 31.0%.
abstract, RESULTS
Higher in women; inversely associated with polio onset after the first year of life and with higher education; strongly associated with comorbid disease, a confounding route for symptom attribution.
Post-polio syndrome
severity: chronic neuromuscular symptoms
case definition: Symptom-based specified diagnostic criteria by telephone interview
mean 51.2 years
prior infection: poliomyelitis
vaccination status: not reported
country: Republic of Korea
setting: hospital and centre records, telephone survey
period: surveyed about 2013
n: 313 polio survivors
18-49y50-64y65+
vs none (prevalence within survivors)61.6
prevalence among polio survivors (%)
per polio survivor
follow-up: mean 38.5 years from acute polio to PPS
cohortBang et al. 2014 Ann Rehabil Med
quote
A total of 188 out of 313 polio survivors met the adopted criteria for PPS based on the symptoms, yielding a prevalence of 61.6%.
abstract, RESULTS
Symptom-only criteria by telephone and recruitment from medical records (selecting people with ongoing care) both push the proportion upward relative to population-based cohorts.
Post-polio syndrome
severity: chronic neuromuscular symptoms
case definition: Halstead's criteria, mailed self-administered questionnaire
polio survivors holding disability certificates
prior infection: poliomyelitis
vaccination status: not reported
country: Japan (Kitakyushu)
setting: community, disability register
period: surveyed about 2003
n: 241 polio survivors
18-49y50-64y65+
vs none18.0
prevalence per 100,000 general population
per 100,000 general population
cohortTakemura et al. 2004 J Rehabil Med
quote
According to Halstead's criteria, 180 polio survivors suffered from post-polio syndrome, and the prevalence of post-polio syndrome in Kitakyushu was 18.0 per population of 100,000.
abstract, RESULTS
Population denominator, not survivor denominator: three-quarters of identified survivors met criteria. Register-based ascertainment captures only certificated disability.
Late-onset polio sequelae (new neuromuscular symptoms, disability, handicap)
severity: increased disability and handicap
case definition: Self-constructed questionnaire comparing current state with the stable period after recovery
mean 44 years (range 39 to 77)
prior infection: paralytic poliomyelitis in the 1956 epidemic
vaccination status: not reported
country: Netherlands
setting: community, population-based from epidemic notifications
period: polio 1956, surveyed about 1997
n: 233 survivors
18-49y50-64y65+
vs none (change within survivors; no uninfected controls)60
proportion of survivors with late-onset sequelae (%)
per paralytic polio survivor
follow-up: about 40 years
cohortIvanyi et al. 1999 Arch Phys Med Rehabil
quote
CONCLUSION: Nearly 60% of a sample of Dutch survivors of the 1956 polio outbreak experience late onset polio sequelae, resulting in increased severity of disabilities and handicaps.
abstract, CONCLUSION
Self-report without a control group, so age-related decline cannot be separated from polio-specific sequelae. More than half reported increased muscle weakness and increased disability.
New neuromuscular symptoms severe enough to change lifestyle or activity
severity: functionally limiting new symptoms
case definition: Detailed clinical, functional and electrophysiologic evaluation of a sample of survivors; new symptoms of muscle pain, fatigue and weakness leading to lifestyle change
survivors of paralytic polio between 1935 and 1955
prior infection: paralytic poliomyelitis
vaccination status: not reported
country: United States (Olmsted County, Minnesota)
setting: community, population-based cohort
period: polio 1935-1955, evaluated about 1990
n: 50 of 247 survivors
18-49y50-64y65+
vs none18
proportion of evaluated survivors whose new symptoms changed lifestyle or activity (%)
per evaluated survivor
cohortWindebank et al. 1991 Neurology
quote
This led to changes in lifestyle or activity in only 18%.
abstract
The abstract reports that sixty-four percent (written in words, so not compilable as a value) complained of new symptoms; electrophysiology did not distinguish those with and without complaints. Small evaluated sample.
Late onset neuromuscular symptoms following poliomyelitis (LSP)
severity: chronic neuromuscular symptoms with worse perceived health
case definition: New muscle weakness plus new neuromuscular symptoms by mailed questionnaire
adult survivors of the 1956 epidemic
prior infection: poliomyelitis in the 1956 epidemic
vaccination status: not reported
country: Netherlands
setting: community, population-based from epidemic notifications
period: polio 1956, surveyed about 2000
n: 260 respondents
18-49y50-64y65+
vs respondents without LSP (for perceived health); no uninfected controls for the proportion45.5
proportion of respondents with LSP (%)
per respondent
cohortNollet et al. 2002 J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry
quote
The perceived health of respondents with LSP (45.5%) was significantly worse than that of respondents without LSP for all the health profile categories.
abstract, RESULTS
Includes survivors who had clinically recovered as well as those with residual paresis.
Post-polio sequelae
severity: chronic neuromuscular disease
case definition: Patients identified from multiple health data sources in a county
all ages in the county population
prior infection: poliomyelitis
vaccination status: not reported
country: Sweden (Orebro county)
setting: community, county register
period: prevalence day 1 January 1988
n: 270,000 population
All ages
vs none92
prevalence per 100,000 general population
per 100,000 general population
surveillanceAhlström et al. 1993 Neuroepidemiology
quote
The rate per 100,000 population was 92 for the postpolio sequelae (PPS) and 84 for the other neuromuscular diseases (motor neuron disease 9, hereditary neuropathies 9, myoneural disorders 16, myotonic disorders 19, muscular dystrophies 20 and myositis 11).
abstract
An expanded survey of all medical records in one district gave roughly double this figure, so register ascertainment roughly halves the true prevalence. Most identified patients reported late-onset symptoms.

Gaps

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Every figure here is quoted verbatim from the source named in its row, and is shown on the scale the source uses. Nothing is recomputed or combined. Open “quote” on any row to check it against the cached source.

Cite this page. Polio vaccines (IPV, OPV). Open Source Medicine Foundation. Estimates compiled 21 October 2026 from the sources named in each row. https://vaccinedatanavigator.org/disease-risk/polio.html

BibTeX
@misc{vaccinedatanavigator-disease-risk-2026,
  title        = {Polio vaccines (IPV, OPV)},
  author       = {{Open Source Medicine Foundation}},
  year         = {2026},
  note         = {Disease risk and vaccine efficacy estimates, compiled 21 October 2026; every value quoted verbatim from its source.},
  howpublished = {\url{https://vaccinedatanavigator.org/disease-risk/polio.html}}
}

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